Oglem

Those are some really interesting stats on the SOI drop and summer temperatures. Nice job digging up that information for us. It should be fun to see if the models adjust to a warmer and drier early July in these coming days.

Great storm photos!

The storm was mostly a dud around here. Rained heavy for about 5 mins, but no wind, no hail, and no CTG lightning.

Rain just started here. Looks like a really strong cell over turnpike.

Right now it's 85 degrees and sunny. Dewpoint is downright oppressive at 75 degrees. Check out the lightning strikes in the EPA thunderstorm line: Lots and lots of lightning. The line seems to be moving East. The picture below shows all thunderstorms with cloud tops over 25,000 feet:

That's fascinating. I wonder why the NAO is going so low this spring/summer? Does the Atlantic cold pool have anything to do with it? We can't seem to get a prolonged -NAO in the winter, which is when most of us really want it.

71 degrees and cloudy right now. My house missed the worst of last night's rain, but we still ended up with 4.1 inches over the past 24 hours. I'm really worried about flooding for the people who live near rivers/streams. If there's more rain today, there are going to be serious problems. Be careful driving out there. There are a lot of small streams flooded around here, as well as reports of road closures. Things are even worse the closer you get to the Delaware River and PA.

A few of the thunderstorms on the radar look like they have some rotation. There's a storm near Allentown that, to my untrained eye, looks like it is rotating. By the way, where do you guys get the radar that shows rotation signature? Is that a free site?

Hmm, why doesn't NYC have as much severe weather as surrounding areas? I think the Mt. Laurel area is not too great in the severe weather department either. Could just be my house though lol. I have lived here for over 10 years and only seen hail once, back in 2009. Not that I want huge hail or anything, but I always thought small hail would be fun to see. I still have my fingers crossed that I will see some small hail around here again. We got a lot of thunderstorms back in 2010-2014, but after that it seemed to have become more quiet. We have had our share of heavy summer showers, but severe weather with winds in the 40s-50s mph, hail, etc seem to hit places like Gloucester county and Pennsylvania across the river lately. There's a classic thunderstorm split that almost always seems to happen a bit East of Philadelphia, where storms go just North and just South or weaken in the middle. Then again, it could just be confirmation bias, who knows haha.

What a stretch of severe weather we're having! Monday, Tuesday, possibly Wednesday, Thursday, & Friday too now!

I have a question: What seems to be the factors limiting severe weather in South Jersey today? CAPE values are very high all over the state, but models like the Canadian high-res, NAM, and HRRR show most of the precipitation going to Central/North Jersey and PA. Is there less wind shear down South today/more wind shear up North? Thanks.

Looks like the best of the storms are staying South of my area. I have my fingers crossed that some storms come North, but it looks like they are sliding straight from West to East. Maybe tomorrow will offer more action for those to my North.

It's pouring here right now. Looks like there's a horizontal-shaped cell that's traveling West to East, so it could take a while. It just developed a little while ago:

In SJ and SE PA, surface-based CAPE values are going to be over 1500 this evening according to the HRRR. NAM 3k shows much higher CAPE values, with some isolated 2500-3000s. Anyone know why NAM 3k is showing such high values vs HRRR? If it matters, I'm using Pivotal Weather for these products. vs

Looks like some little showers will be moving through. 82 degrees right now and cloudy.