Oglem

That's the big question. I found this twitter thread very relevant to the discussion so far about what an early SSW could mean later on. Looks like we don't necessarily want a complete SSW this early, could screw up mid-winter. Possibly even a very weak vortex this early wouldn't be a great thing for mid-winter prospects from what I understood. But probably still better to have it on the weaker side imo, just not so weak that those mechanisms Simon Lee described kick in to help it recover in the heart of winter.

Looks like we're going to have a break from the tropical activity for at least a little while, let's see how long it lasts.

Interesting tweet:

Looks like the storm stalls over the area for a bit while weakening, this is actually the 2nd GFS run in a row to show a storm that stalls over the area. A stalled storm would be bad given how much rain the region has had from Ida's remnants. This run also has a weaker follow-up storm 2-3 days later, tropics look very active.

There's a ton of fuel for Ida in the Gulf, seems like there's a pool of steaming water right in the middle of its track should it take a more Eastern path toward New Orleans:

Jesus that's a lot of rain, not even done because it's only hr 18: Like it's been kind of dry in SJ, but I assume 6-8 inches of rain in one night will cause serious problems in some lower elevation neighborhoods. Hope we get more like 2 inches, that's all we really need. Also who knows where that feature sets up, I think everybody in CNJ should also be vigilant, as with EPA and extreme south NJ, wherever that band sets up is going to have flooding issues. But kind of scary to see HRRR stubborn on the rain death band setting up, will be interesting to see if this feature verifies.

GFS says Grace is one to watch for the Gulf, has it Cat 3/4 in 10 days:

Just want to post this here, apparently song birds are getting sick across several states: https://www.wnep.com/article/news/state/dont-feed-the-birds-mysterious-disease-affecting-pennsylvania-songbirds/523-01ab1435-fcf4-47db-abed-44161d0b5a27 Sounds like those of us with bird feeders should take them in for now, congregations of birds can spread the disease. No disease reported in NY or NJ yet, but it's right across the river in PA, so probably a matter of time.

Just had a gusty t-storm. Not much thunder and no lightning though. Heavy downpour for about 10 mins, still raining.

Lots of thunder. 70 degrees. According to HRRR we'll be at freezing with flurries throughout the area (mainly inland) next morning.

Some strat support for another bout of cold weather late month, looks like a dynamic final warming of PV after all:

Interesting Twitter thread on the Caribbean volcano. Looks like based on SO2 levels so far, shouldn't be any noticeable climate impacts, which apparently start at around 10x the levels of SO2 currently seen pumped into the atmosphere by the volcano.

Made it down to 29, currently 35. Cold night for April. Tonight should be even colder, prob mid 20s.

Just hit 80 for the first time since September 29th, 2020. Hadn't realized it had been THAT long. Usually we have some 80s in October.

Hello there... (Disclaimer: 372 hr op run, very unlikely) This shows what that kind of blocking is capable of. Upper level lows are literally moving backwards on GFS. We prob don't see snow because it still takes everything to go just right for april snow, even with blocking, but we'll see what happens, after all the block has only been trending stronger the last few days, has not been backing down.