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Oglem

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Oglem last won the day on October 5 2019

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About Oglem

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    Mount Laurel NJ

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  1. Hey everyone, I was wondering if anyone would be interested in a database file with 22 teleconnections that can be queried to find analogs. I think it could help anyone interested in finding analogs for the upcoming winter or tropical season and just exploring the teleconnections for learning purposes. It's currently set up with SQLite, a free software that will let you build databases and use SQL queries on the teleconnection data. The source of all data is https://psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list/ and https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index. Each table is a different teleconnection, all of the fields for each table are months (Jan - Dec) and each row is a different year. Most of the teleconnections are from 1950-2019, a few are from 1979-2019. All of the teleconnections we usually talk about (not including MJO, GWO, AAM or EPO) are on there. PM me if you'd like the database file so you can do your own analysis on the data or the csv files I used if you want to make your own database. I've had fun with it so far, I hope it helps you out too
  2. Rain has ended here for now, topped out at 3.15 inches. Getting brighter out, I wonder if the sun will show itself.
  3. 73 degrees, 2.53 inches of rain so far. No wind yet, just an occasional breeze.
  4. Some pretty distinct rain bands showing in SJ. Explains the alternating bursts of heavy rain with lulls:
  5. At 1.45 inches of rain. Alternating between heavy rain and light rain every 10 minutes or so for the last hour.
  6. Wow, some really heavy bands depicted on 01z HRRR: Should be an interesting day tomorrow!
  7. You're right, I forgot how dry it has been lately. Looking outside I see the grass still has those big patches of brown you get when it's really dry.
  8. Wow, that's a lot of rain. Some places in NJ had like 4 inches two days ago, so another 2-2.5 inches would be a flooding concern.
  9. 3.3 inches now. Big branch blew off a tree a while ago, but storm is leaving and the rain is light again.
  10. Been pouring for the last 30 minutes here. Weird white rain (unusual to see in summer) was coming down and still is, mixed in with a little hail/graupel pellets. 1.31 inches of rain in last 30 minutes. Temperature dropped from 90 to 69 degrees. Not very windy, but occasional gusts to around 40 mph. Frequent lightning and loud thunder right now. Storm was beginning to let up but picked back up just a few minutes ago. Be safe and stay inside if you can, these storms are nasty. Edit: Winds just gusted to maybe 70. Idk, possibly even highest gusts I've seen in a long long time, or at least most destructive. They're blowing from all different directions, wreaking havoc with the trees. Tree outside my room got very close to tumbling over (last happened during Sandy)
  11. I was examining some data earlier today and I found this interesting trend between the IOD and SOI: Looks like a negative trend, especially from 1975-2020. You'd be hard-pressed to find any +ve correlation years after 2010 or even 1990, yet there are quite a few +ve years in the 60s/70s/80s and strongly +ve at that. Wondering if anyone knows if this is researched or maybe just a problem with the way I'm analyzing it? I'm using monthly numbers for SOI from this link: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list/ and monthly numbers for IOD (from this link: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/DMI/ The correlation coefficient for each year is calculated using those monthly numbers for the IOD and SOI, and then the yearly correlation is plotted on the y-axis in the graph. I figure this plays into the discussion on the influence of the IOD on ENSO and vice versa. At first I thought maybe it had something to do with global warming skewing numbers higher in modern times since I went from 1950 to 2020, but then why would the relationship between the SOI and IOD change?
  12. Same here actually. We're about the same distance away from it. I can't wrap my head around it lol, it's really far away to be seeing lightning from.
  13. Just what we need... #2020 (note: Not a fake pic, but must be something wrong with gfs-para on tt lol)
  14. Just wanted to share this tweet I read the other day. It would be interesting if the IOD goes positive. Though as of now, most models do have it going negative the next few months. I'm hearing -IOD tends to correlate with a more active tropical season, but at the same time, that could just be because La Nina promotes a more active hurricane season and -IOD happens more with -ve or at least non-positive ENSO. I've also heard that +IOD could lead to more atlantic activity by strengthening storms over Africa that then go on to become tropical storms/hurricanes, so provided we get the ENSO right, maybe -ve/neutral ENSO and +IOD would be most conducive for atlantic tropical activity.
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