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Oglem last won the day on March 23

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About Oglem

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  1. Just had a gusty t-storm. Not much thunder and no lightning though. Heavy downpour for about 10 mins, still raining.
  2. Lots of thunder. 70 degrees. According to HRRR we'll be at freezing with flurries throughout the area (mainly inland) next morning.
  3. Some strat support for another bout of cold weather late month, looks like a dynamic final warming of PV after all:
  4. Interesting Twitter thread on the Caribbean volcano. Looks like based on SO2 levels so far, shouldn't be any noticeable climate impacts, which apparently start at around 10x the levels of SO2 currently seen pumped into the atmosphere by the volcano.
  5. Made it down to 29, currently 35. Cold night for April. Tonight should be even colder, prob mid 20s.
  6. Just hit 80 for the first time since September 29th, 2020. Hadn't realized it had been THAT long. Usually we have some 80s in October.
  7. Hello there... (Disclaimer: 372 hr op run, very unlikely) This shows what that kind of blocking is capable of. Upper level lows are literally moving backwards on GFS. We prob don't see snow because it still takes everything to go just right for april snow, even with blocking, but we'll see what happens, after all the block has only been trending stronger the last few days, has not been backing down.
  8. There goes GFS with a super block developing around Apr 01. Other models starting to come on board. Cutoff low literally moves backwards: CMC and Euro don't go out far enough, but they do show the development of the same block around Apr 1. Has some MJO support. If it's correct, we'd have a cool early April. Even flakes would be a possibility, GFS showed some backend flakes in Southern and coastal areas on April 2nd.
  9. op GFS says we get a mega block starting around Mar 31 and strengthening into April: Some support from MJO going into P3/4, plus this twitter thread seems to indicate that the high-lat blocking is supported by AAM as well. It's that Atl ridge he is talking about that GFS retrogades into Greenland and then into Hudson Bay. d
  10. Neat upgrade to GFS: Apparently it should help forecast strat stuff.
  11. Currently 65 degrees, up from 28 degrees. Looks like the last day of snow piles around here, this is the last 'pile' in the area: A little timeline of its decline over last 2 weeks:
  12. GFS brings MJO around into P3 and P4, lots of spread still wrt amplitude: P3/4 are cold phases this time of year. RMM plots are supported by the VP 200 plots as well, which also show strong convection in P3 and 4. Plus there are some signs of ridging over the N. pole again on the three ensembles, especially EPS and GEFS, and this has been trending a little better the past few days. Mar 31 GEFS 06z: Op runs also attempt to establish some blocking in early April. I'd say for these reasons we should keep an eye on the end of month storm. We're so far out though that th
  13. Might want to move this to banter, but Thing is, it's not completely impossible because tellies don't look bad, MJO is in right phase too. But extremely unlikely due to climo (that being said, we have had snow in April but it takes special timing and circumstances to get it done esp at coast) and the fact that it's coming off a warm period, and it's a 240 hr op run. We might as well get as much virtual snow as we can though, because there won't be much of that either until next Nov/Dec lol.
  14. 35 degrees, ended up with about 1.1 inches of rain. This guy actually made it through the rain and 2 days of 70s. 3/14 vs 3/19: Prob has another day or two, but then snow will be officially gone from the area just in time for spring. Big difference in temps across NJ due to radiational cooling, some real cold spots in pine barrens:
  15. Tomorrow morning seems done, NAM trended back to the rest of the models and HRRR with less and less snow. At least the rain we got should diminish the threat of brush fires. Can't rule out flakes flying because it's still early spring, plus teleconnections don't look too bad at start of April (MJO in cold phase too, but might go into COD). but that was likely our last threat for accumulating snow at the coast. Oh well, onto spring and thunderstorm tracking.
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