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Oglem last won the day on October 5 2019

Oglem had the most liked content!

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About Oglem

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    Mount Laurel NJ

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  1. Wow. Seeing as our area is on the Northern section of the white/pink 2ft zone, I'm thinking ratios would probably be high. Is there a kuchera map just for fun hehe?
  2. Woah! For a second there I thought those were Celsius. 2 degrees Fahrenheit DP is crazy!
  3. I did some reading on this today, and it seems like 15 km is the threshold of weather impacts for tropical volcanoes as it represents the level of the stratosphere. It also seems that there are two ways volcanoes impact our climate: ash particles and sulfur dioxide gas. Apparently, it's sulfur dioxide gas that is the most influential factor on our weather, as they form aerosols that take a long time to leave the atmosphere and reflect sunlight. You can have an eruption with less ash but more sulfur dioxide, and it will have a greater influence on the climate. Also, from my reading it seems that volume is generally more important than height, provided sufficient height to reach the stratosphere. I don't know if this eruption is really high enough, and we'll have to see what the volume of sulfur dioxide will be. In my opinion, this one eruption probably isn't significant enough to influence our winter weather, but that's just from a day of reading. Also, we need to keep updated, as there could be a larger eruption later. Maybe someone more knowledgeable in the topic can fill us in. I think it would need to send an ash cloud higher than 15km to really affect global weather (also would need significant volume), and then there are probably other factors influencing how it affects us and interacts with other factors determining our weather. Pinatubo was in a similar area and ejected a lot of sulfur dioxide, so since location on the Earth/materials in magma matters, this volcano might have the potential to eject a lot of sulfur dioxide if the eruption were bigger. Keep in mind that Pinatubo's eruption reached 40 km and massive volume. Here are some links I found, pretty cool stuff: https://www.carbonbrief.org/what-do-volcanic-eruptions-mean-for-the-climate https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-do-volcanoes-affect-w/ https://scied.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taal_Volcano https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_gas Interesting to note that the first link was about a volcanic eruption in 2015, and briefly mentioned that volcanic eruptions could increase the likelihood of an El Nino event. And sure enough we did have the monster El Nino of 2016 later that year.
  4. Wow, that's a 10 degree change and evidence of a muted SE ridge. I hope we see more of these changes in future runs.
  5. If these radar returns are as accurate as they were for SJ, then Long Islanders can expect some big flakes, good rates and C-1 accumulations.
  6. I was under the band earlier when it passed through my area. There are big, 1-2 inch flakes under that band, but they aren't coming down that rapidly. Should be good for C-1 on grassy surfaces for anywhere it hits. Roads were too warm here for anything to stick to pavement.
  7. 34 degrees with very large flakes. One flake was 2 1/2 inches wide. Most have widths of at least 1 inch. A coating has accumulated on grassy surfaces, but nothing on the pavement yet. Watch out for this band if you're going to be on the road tonight.
  8. We have a very light glaze from freezing rain on some surfaces. Light freezing drizzle right now but temperatures are 35 degrees, which makes me think that the ground/sidewalks are just cold from last night and haven't warmed up yet. A little sleet has been mixing in from time to time.
  9. Hello, I had a question about the above statement about the AAM. Is it saying that when there are -ve momentum anomalies at the equator, there also have to be positive anomalies at the higher latitudes? I get the feeling that I misunderstood this statement, because then how could a global AAM anomaly even exist if -AAM at the equator is balanced out by +AAM at the poles. Or I might just be missing something in the physics of angular momentum. From what I see on the relative AAM chart, there's a lot of -ve anomalies but no positive balancing anomalies at the higher latitudes. Another question of mine is how ENSO is linked to AAM. I see how La Nina generates easterly anomalies over the Pacific, but doesn't it also generate westerly anomalies over the Indian ocean that would balance this out? Why does a La Nina = -AAM for the most part? Thank you so much to anyone who answers my questions
  10. To add to the earlier discussion on early color/leaf drop, quite a few trees in my area have already lost their leaves. I didn't think it had been that dry, though. I have a theory that this is all somewhat related to the March 2018 snowstorms, at least for my area. One of them dumped 7 inches of heavy wet snow in 2 hours. Many trees lost large/key branches that day, and if I remember right, there is a certain cutoff diameter when losing a branch of that size affects the tree long-term. I believe it's 3 or 4 inches, but I could be wrong on that. The reason is that the tree is not able to fully seal the wound, so bugs and bacteria are able to get in. If the tree is small or weak, or already inherently susceptible to modern diseases (like ash or certain pines) that could be a devastating blow. I know of several trees that have never been quite the same since that storm.
  11. Hey everyone, I just wanted to share this really interesting twitter post I just found. It says that at lower latitudes and warmer SSTs, slight changes in SST have a greater impact on the weather than they would in higher latitudes. I wonder why that is.
  12. Thanks! Here's a map of the correlation index for the PMM: So if I'm reading that right, the r-value for our area should be -0.484, which is pretty good considering there's so many other factors that influence our weather too. Although this map is for dec-feb PMM vs dec-feb temps, so we need the positive anomalies to stick around. It might be interesting to see how often a +4 PMM summer leads to positive values in the winter. The map for Jun-Aug PMM shows a weaker correlation to our area, something like -0.2, but it's still there. The chart you posted is really cool, I like the normal distribution stats. It's interesting just how positive the PMM has been this September, I think the fact that it's +2 standard deviations from all months is especially impressive. The good thing is it's been going upwards lately, so fingers crossed that's a sign of what's to come. I think it would be good to do more research into what causes a +PMM to continue or subside. I read somewhere that the North Pacific Oscillation initiates a +PMM event, and I would think that the current +IOD event can only help by keeping those cool anomalies by the maritime continent.
  13. Made it down to 43, currently 46 degrees here. It's impressive that there were some freezes in North Jersey, I think that's pretty early for them.
  14. This is the only link I know of right now: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ You can check out correlation between different indexes here: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/correlation/ And compare SST/Temps historically to now: https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/
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