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Oglem

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About Oglem

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  1. That's a really interesting post! Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe fourier transform is a way to analyze an oscillation (like NAO) or wave. It is when you decompose a complicated wave into simple waves that add up to it. You end up filtering out a complicated, choppy looking wave (ever seen those sound waves of someone talking or of music? that kind of choppiness) into simple sine waves of a given wavelength and amplitude. A wave in this case could be the oscillation of the NAO or AO from positive to negative. So they basically broke down the chaotic/choppy signal of the NAO fluctuating up and down and discovered within those fluctuations some steady sine waves. One steady fluctuation that they 'discovered' in the chaos of the NAO fluctuation is a 22-year wavelength wave (probably the solar cycle). So I think what this is saying is that the solar cycle has a real influence on the NAO's fluctuations, as does the moon. They did something similar to analyze the AO. That's really cool that the solar cycle and moon cycle are correlated to the NAO/AO. Though I'm not sure how lunar cycles have anything to do with weather, this is something that I have always wondered about and I would love if someone could elaborate on how the moon can influence our weather. Edit: I'm not sure how that map works, so it would be great if someone could elaborate on what exactly the map is showing. It seems to be a decomposed version of the NAO's fluctuation over the decades, but I'm not sure what the colors mean. Thanks
  2. It's been trending better and better. Some places on Jersey shore actually get 2-4 inches from this run. GFS isn't the only model showing those kinds of amounts, either. FV3-GFS shows 1-2 inches, ICON shows 2-4 in Delaware. Someone is probably going to get a little bit of snow from this, especially if the low gets stronger like in 12z GFS.
  3. Interesting. Pine Barrens in South Jersey are way colder than forecast, too. I see a 28 in there.
  4. I'd be interested in a map showing % of annual snowfall for the United States. It's probably between 50 - 100% for most areas on here, but out West you probably have some very high percentages.
  5. 16 inches for the year so far here. Need about 6 more or so to get to average.
  6. Light snow here now, at 33 degrees. Didn't expect anything, hoping for a dusting? That being said, seems like this should be over in a few minutes from the looks of the radar.
  7. About time one of these crazy MJO loops/stalls works in our favor. If only it happened in January.
  8. It's amazing, I still have bits of snow in the grass (shady spots) even though it only snowed about an inch 3-4 days ago.
  9. I'm definitely interested in 3/20. It's just so far out there, though. Several GFS runs have shown a big storm around 3/20, so that is a good sign. Also, last year we had a pretty great storm around then.
  10. Do you think we might see thundersnow from this?
  11. Slushy dusting if you can call it that on grass.
  12. Flakes mixing with rain now. Moderate rate of precipitation. 35 degrees. Edit: Literally just changed to mostly snow with a little rain mixed in.
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