Oglem

Thunderstorms just popping up out of nowhere. Heavy rain and a little thunder right now, but it doesn't look like it will last long. There are quite a few storms popping up across SJ, including a pretty big one down by Delaware and Salem county.

Nice post! Man look at that crazy NAO drop. And just look at how long it's been negative, like that's really incredible. Good to see the PDO is no longer negative.

I can confirm this. I've been seeing lightning to my West for hours now. Looks like the storm is going to dissipate/miss my area, but definitely a decent amount of rain fell in Philadelphia.

Wow, those are really cool pictures. I loved the top one, with the contrast of the heavy precip on the right and the dry zone on the left. I always like seeing the contrast between heavy rain and dark clouds/blue sky. I think I see some greenish glow in the other photos, that's a good sign of a severe storm. There is serious skill involved to get to the right place at the right time to get those kinds of photos before the storm moves on or dissipates Keep up the good work!

Wow holy crap @ isolated 5 inches! even 1-2 inches widespread is going to be quite a bit. No wonder they issued the FFW. That could cause problems if it goes over those areas with 3-4 inch monthly departures for August. Though if NAM 12k is correct the precip may stay a bit farther West/North.

Looks like the NAM 12k has the axis of heaviest precip from SE PA into NYC: Nam 3K has the axis going more from Trenton to Monmouth County, missing NYC. Should be a rainy day for most regardless, and likely in the "2019 rainy corridor", as seen in the map below showing rainfall departures for August so far. If the NAM 3k is correct about the placement, the heaviest rainfall would end up right over that blue spot in Monmouth county which has already seen much more rain that average this month. So this could be shaping up to be a serious flooding threat for some people. Regardless this year is shaping up to be very rainy around here. The map below shows month to date departures, . It's honestly even more amazing if you look at the whole region for the past 365 days. Basically the whole states of NJ, PA, MD, and DE are 12-20 inches above normal, with a decent swath around the cities being over 20 inches above normal. Last year reached 61 inches at Philadelphia, which puts us 20 inches above the period of record normal. Amazingly, Philadelphia is still 1.5 inches ahead of last year, and that's with last year's Aug 31 total vs our August 12th total. If tomorrow performs well we should expand our lead. We'll need it if we are to come close to 2018, what with 2018's 9 inch autumn months. It's just amazing how wet it's been over the past year. Here's to all of this precipitation keeping up through the winter when it's (hopefully) cold enough to snow. Edit: Check this link out: https://water.weather.gov/precip/# Look at 2018 in the archive data vs all other years in terms of departure. At least back to 2005, no other year comes close to the solid purple/pink colors covering the entire East Coast. 2011 kinda comes close, but seriously 2018 is in a league of its own in terms of widespread, significant positive precip departures when compared to other years. I wonder if that soil moisture has any implications for our future weather patterns?

That was a really good winter for cold and snowpack retention here, but it was only slightly above average in snowfall(I think something like 27 inches total). I still rate it as A, because the snowpack lasted for weeks and the snow in the woods made it almost a whole month straight. It was the perfect cold & dry-ish winter, as the snow came at the right time so that it could stay on the ground for a long time. Also, there was like 6-7 inch ice on the local ponds due to the cold. I wouldn't mind a cold and dry-ish winter as long as the snow comes before the cold spell so that it can stick around, and as long as the lakes freeze over thick. It keeps the ticks in hibernation too, which is great. That being said, I'm still hoping this winter will be cold with tons of snow haha.

I had a question: What's the difference between an East-based Nina and a Modoki El Nino? Don't they both feature warmer waters in the Central Pacific and cooler waters in the East Pacific? Is the difference in Indonesia/West Pacific (I know La Nina is supposed to feature warmer waters in the West Pacific).

Does this look like rotation to you:

I have my eye on this storm: I might be a bit too far West to catch it, we'll see. Recent radar indicates hail and 2-4 inch/hr rain rates in that cell. Maybe those other ones to its SW will blow up soon though. Up North the radar looks absolutely insane, just look at all those severe warnings and cells: There was a report of 0.88 inch hail in Hightstown, NJ (mercer county). Edit: I can feel the breeze coming from the storm's outflow. Very dark clouds to my South and Southeast.

I mean aside from the fact that it's really far out and way too early to put any stock into these models' forecasts, I wonder what's going on with this model? Waters have generally been running above average in the vast majority of our oceans lately, so for them all to flip to cool for next year just makes no sense lol. There must be some sort of glitch. Same with the constant lower heights in 2020 shown in the East U.S. by that model. Haha if only this could be true: Actually, it's definitely a model glitch because if you look at yesterday's run there was no hint of cold anomalies in the East. Crazy how variable these things are from this far out.

Just got really windy!

Big thunderstorms near Philadelphia. Apparently there was a 78mph gust in New Castle, DE from these storms. From the warning: SOURCE...At 504 PM EDT, a wind gust of 78 mph was reported at theNew Castle County Airport near Wilmington, Delaware.

That's really interesting! What a great observation. I'm really looking forward to seeing if those predictions hold up. Looks like it seems to happen the year or two after the solar minimum/start of that cycle, am I correct?

Official Mt. Holly station is jumping between 97 and 99. Many other stations throughout NJ are also between 96-99. Let's see what happens, there's still a few hours to go