Oglem

Exactly how I feel. You're just giving people more reasons to contest the result, unless I'm missing something (which could be the case). Why not let them have their 6 ft, if that is what will make everyone happy?

Imo this is an amazing jazz piece:

One of my favorite jazz pieces:

Looks like some activity is already starting to show up on the ensembles for next week. Caribbean is the place to watch in October. Climo + MJO coming + very warm SSTs is what we're dealing with coming into the next month.

Wow. I know Teddy has been trending W lately. I've been focused on Sally recently but Teddy could sneak up on us. It's just crazy that we're already at the Greeks (just Wilfred to go).

Interesting tweet. Something to keep in mind is that the OHC on the Gulf side of Florida is kind of low (as you'll see in that twitter thread), so maybe that could be a factor in preventing RI if it moves slowly over the Gulf. However, the storm seems to be in a favorable atmospheric environment for intensification, so tonight/tomorrow should be interesting, as we'll see what factors win out. Hopefully we don't have another landfalling RI hurricane on our hands.

GEFS has a weaker and later signal, but also shows a few clusters in the W. Atlantic around that time. 2nd week of September is the timeframe to watch imo.

Wow! Looks like it's going to be an interesting afternoon.

Not liking what I'm seeing for early/mid September, looks threatening for a landfall to me. GEFS shows ridging building in W. Atlantic starting in the 1st week of September: and lasting to at least mid-September. I believe W. Atlantic ridging in this location favors U.S. landfalls (correct me if I'm wrong). What's interesting is that Eric Webb (I think it was him?) on twitter had a post showing how the Indian ocean standing wave that we've been seeing tends to promote ridging in the very same location as seen in the images above. Not going to post the images here, but past few runs o

Oh wow, that's very interesting! Thanks for the explanation

I had a question: Why is the low point of the diurnal cycle during the daytime? I thought that since the maximum heating occurs in the daytime, that would also be the most favorable time for tropical cyclones, too. Thanks!

Laura is definitely one to watch, check out HWRF. It's insane, it takes Laura to high-end Cat 4 right off the coast of Louisiana in 5 days.

Just heard thunder in the distance. Looks like there could be a lot of rain, flash flood watch has been issued.

Edit: In other news, 95L has been upgraded to TD11 as well.