Lostboy63

Lol

99.999999999999999999999999999% not happening

This seems.... extreme to say the least, lol.

There is a 1040 HP dropping SE into Central Canada on the last frame, but its too late and makes this system an interior event. Maybe. Still skeptical of such an evolution with bad teleconnections other than a Neutral/Slightly positive PNA. Just for fun, precip map from weather.us

Not for the coast, lack of cold air. Interior thats a different story.

Lol

!!!!!

Its also worth noting the increase in the Mean snowfall on the 18z GEFS. Highly skeptical right now, but.... 18z: 12z:

Huh, this looks like 2 separate systems on the 18z GEFS

Things would have to change DRAMATICALLY to even consider it a possibility. This winter has been all about expecting one thing (usually a block-buster) then having it slowly fade as time moves up because of simple persistence. Or it has been because of a "Good" pattern emerging like models advertised, but lack of cold/phasing or suppression pushing systems further to the south. Would it be amazing to have a KU at the end of March? Hell yes! Is it going to happen? Learning from this winter tells me not to get any hopes up right now. Things need to change in order for me to have some sense of confidence in something Extreme, or even notable, to happen around the 20th.

Find it hard to see anything significant regarding snow for the rest of the month without a -NAO and poor Atlantic/Pacific blocking. The real focus should be on the developing significant storm system for the plains IMO; At least that is something to track. Bring on spring!

12z GEFS