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OHweather last won the day on September 25

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About OHweather

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  1. WOOF at that 12z GEFS run. Gorgeous to watch, and what I've been eying for the last week or so. The East Asian Mountain Torque and enhanced convection, from a combination of the MJO and low-frequency forcing, coupled with the TPV anomaly descending into eastern Asia due to the Scandinavian and Ural blocking, speeds up the jet over the western Pacific. This momentum gets dispersed over the central and eastern Pacific, and as the TPV moves away from AK the wave breaks can easily raise heights in AK and drop the EPO. A lot points to a -EPO developing. It's interesting that the EPS, often too slow
  2. I fully agree with this. I’m relatively excited for the middle two weeks of December. I think we pull back as forcing moves across the Indian Ocean again later in the month, favoring a SE ridge, but think the combination of a weaker stratospheric vortex and next MJO could bring some legitimate “goods” at some point in January. Still pretty far out but I think things might line up. This will be my third winter in NJ. Hoping it’s the best one yet...I like the early signs.
  3. What I think will be a key feature to watch is the TPV that begins near Greenland at the beginning of the loop, drifts across the pole, and then drops into the Okhotsk Sea or eastern Asia during the first week of December. It seems like that feature moving by AK is part of what causes the +EPO and flood of Pacific crap in the mid-range...but, when it moves away, it may combine with a strong positive East Asian Mountain Torque and convection over the western Pacific to really enhance the jet over East Asia and the West Pac, with an opportunity for wave breaks to raise heights near AK and drop t
  4. As I uploaded all of the discussion to my blog, I realized it was much too long for me to double post the whole thing on various forums (it takes a considerable amount of time to upload all of the images. So not to come off as lazy or promoting my blog (that I never use except for these), but here is the link to the technical discussion: https://jimsullivanweather.com/2020/11/21/jim-sullivans-2020-21-winter-outlook-write-up/
  5. I will post the rest of the technical write-up during the day Saturday (it's too much for me to proof right now), but here is the month-by-month summary and maps at the end of my personal winter outlook. My apologies for being a bit tardy, but I've been busy and this took a while to put together. It's almost easier to do this in October, as enough happened this month to change the outlook and add quite a bit to the technical discussion. December: A +PNA to end November and start December leads to a very mild / warm start to the month across the CONUS (sligh
  6. Yeah, despite the overall hate for the current pattern I spewed on Twitter earlier today, there is some support for an EPO dip in a week or so...maybe a brief uptick in western Pacific convection along with an increase in EAMT. It'd take a lucky wavebreak in the northern Pacific and I think if we pull it off, we'd at least temporarily go back to a +EPO pretty quickly, but I'm open to the idea of a brief but potent cold shot around or just before Thanksgiving. ---------------------- Otherwise, I've been meaning to put together a longer post for this thread for about two
  7. I certainly agree with you that if the PV takes hits at times we can have a better outcome. Even though most of those winters all had periods that got cold in the east, some of those I really wouldn't want to roll the dice on outside of the Midwest/Great Lakes, Upstate NY and New England. 10-11 and 95-96 had a negative AO/NAO, and 88-89 did it with a better Pacific pattern...I can see how both happen at times (especially early, and perhaps again late). Given most of the analogs and the seasonal guidance, I feel that I don't have much of a choice but to assume a period of strong PV with a +AO/N
  8. That would help the mid-winter prospects. But that's such an extreme example that while 2010-11 may be a decent analog, it's hard to put faith in that sort of outcome at this point. If we're sitting here a month from now and the PV is still relatively weak I'll be a little more intrigued. I do like that the AAM will likely be relatively high for a La Nina over the next few weeks and the pattern will be amped enough that the PV may not strengthen out of control in that time...but if I had to go with the "most likely" outcome I'd still go towards the PV getting stronger towards the middle of win
  9. I think any sort of SSW event would be more of a late-winter save than a game changer for the whole season. I'm still on the relatively cold/blocky train for December (with an up and down November that could yield some snow, especially in the interior), but I think it will be hard for the PV to not get strong during the mid-winter for a period of time and yield a more canonical La Nina pattern with a +NAO/EPO and -PNA. A February SSW ala 2018 that results in a late rally wouldn't be a complete shock. Obviously, if we completely whiff on an early good pattern (ie it's cold / blocky
  10. I'm contractually obligated to get in front of a camera with our social media team for at least 45 minutes every calendar year (j/k I think)...here's our first pass at a video for this winter's outlook: If you'd like to not click on the video and hunt for the maps, here are the maps we included in there: I'm sure we'll make some tweaks over the next few weeks ahead of our "final" pre-season outlook, but that's where we're at right now.
  11. Hey all. Work has frankly sucked out most of my desire to discuss and look at weather during my free time much of this summer (something you never think is possible when you're a weenie posting on the Accu forums 10+ years ago!), but the early frost to start the week and prospect of flakes potentially flying before too much longer is starting to slowly give me the urge to not be a WxBoard hermit anymore. I'll try to post a somewhat more routine commentary over the next few weeks and much more detailed / comprehensive write-up at some point in late October when time allows. At this point, a few
  12. How exactly do you think remote learning works? The teachers mail out a bunch of pre-made work sheets on Monday and then go back to getting a tan for the rest of the week and don't do anything else?
  13. A long tweet thread. Curious where the western cutoff to the heavy rain ends up being.
  14. Half decent severe threat NJ/PA vicinity on Monday. A weak vort max providing lift at peak heating along and southwest of the backdoor front. Shear is weak, but good directional shear and just enough speed shear for some loose storm organization. Moderate to strong instability, someone cool and dry aloft contributing to DCAPE, and fairly low wet bulb 0’s for July. Environment seems conducive to microbursts, with any more persistent updrafts producing isolated large hail. As PWATs increase late afternoon into the evening and the LLJ ramps up some, could see some training/back building conv
  15. How hot it ultimately gets in early July will largely depend on how quickly the cut-off low next week does or doesn't clear out of the northeast...those pesky upper lows have already saved us from a few very warm to hot days this summer.
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