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  1. It probably gets to like northern WV before transferring, but...it's still a cold look.
  2. Crudely comparing to 12z based on the 0z meteocentre maps, the 0z UK looks similar track (though maybe 3 hours faster), a bit deeper of a low (especially over the Ohio Valley), and a bit stronger high NE of it. I'd imagine it's probably fairly exciting.
  3. Yeah, despite the lack of an earlier phase, being more amped pushed up the mid-level warmth too quickly.
  4. It's going to be interesting to see what the NAM does from here, because it is more amped as it ejects and is starting to speed up more than the 18z run due to the PNA ridge starting to break down. That's an interesting point about the southern wave maybe being too amped...I tend to think that without a good phase the potential for a strong pull north is limited, but for those on the edge even a modest change can make a diference.
  5. Through 33 hours the 0z NAM appears to be a little slower/more amped with the southern vort with modestly higher heights ahead of it over the Plains. Would cause a slower phase...we'll see if that trend continues or not as it starts ejecting out soon. Basically it seems to me that a more amped/slower southern vort will have more separation from the western TPV lobe and make it harder to phase.
  6. 850s get warm enough for a good amount of ZR it looks like. And unfortunately unless the low tracks into the Hudson Valley the damming likely holds for the duration.
  7. That SLP track would keep the damming locked in all day, even if it ticked warmer aloft.
  8. Yeah that’s a bit of a trend towards the GFS/Canadian.
  9. Couldn't get the TPV to phase with the southern shortwave to save our lives last storm. It's going to do it this storm and screw anyone outside of the far interior.
  10. Given its starting point it's still going to be left of probably every other op model...but yes, it was better, and if the trend can continue with the UK and Euro it'd be nice.
  11. 0z Canadian still in the cutter camp but it's not quite as bad as 12z.
  12. The 18z EPS rose heights a little more ahead of the shortwave and was modestly warmer on the front end...a bit slower with the shortwave and a later phase so the low doesn't cut still and probably some backside potential. Only went out through 144 hours on SV, so I can only speculate what might've happened after. Probably not a positive trend overall, for whatever the 18z EPS is worth.
  13. The other maps on there are the ensemble mean (the SLP/precip/temps/etc), but I know their snow maps aren't...I'll post the 12z EPS mean snow through day 11 from WxBell below as an example, but it includes both storms and is much lower. Someone else may know what the SV snow maps try to show...it's not the control, and it's not the mean. I don't think it's the max snow from any member either as that would be even higher...maybe it does something weird where if the mean temp profile supports snow it counts the mean QPF in the previous 6 hours as snow, but that's a very odd thing to do to an ensemble and isn't the "ensemble mean snow."
  14. I don't know what the SV ensemble snow maps actually show, but it's not the ensemble mean and they generally seem to be way overdone.
  15. The southern shortwave is more robust and more phased over the Plains at 90 hours...just going to be a matter of if it can scoot ahead of the TPV or not.