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  1. A little over 4” here in the lower elevations in NW NJ. Extremely picturesque paste still coming down moderately. Mixing line getting dicy for NYC and LI but whoever stays north of it is fixin’ to rip like mad. I think most of NYC can hold onto all snow the next couple hours as this heaviest surge pushes in...anyone farther SE onto Long Island will try to sleet. Let’s see what happens!
  2. I'm not saying it's bad, I'm just saying starting as a warm snow that won't stick until the models have it snowing anyways won't make a difference. The heavier rates this evening is what will make or break NYC (it should be good).
  3. While it's nice to be starting as snow in NYC, it's close to 40 degrees. It won't start sticking until 6-7 PM when it starts picking up and temps cool a few degrees, which is when models show snow anyways. It's essentially a white rain for the next hour or two.
  4. For shits, this would be my call at this point... Some reasoning: -The more progressive models (GFS, NAM, 3km NAM) seem to have stopped the bleeding a bit, with decent consensus on a swath of 0.50-0.75" (yes some models a bit more than that) of QPF on in the cold sector -Great right-entrance support and high pwats both support a deepening low and good QPF, with the former suggesting precip getting drawn pretty far north into the interior -Despite the low beginning to deepen as it goes by, the 500mb shortwave is quite broad/disorganized and moves quickly. This will keep the cieling from being too high. -Even the progressive models get a good theta-e/warm air advection push going over the northern mid-Atlantic late Sunday afternoon/evening that progresses ENE into southern New England overnight. This will cause strong isentropic lift and frontogenesis, supporting moderate to heavy precip. Precip rates will be aided by a lack of stability, so some slantwise convective banding is likely. -That said, the system is quick moving so the banding doesn't last long in any given spot. Forecast soundings reveal a fairly thin/elevated DGZ, with best lift beneath the DGZ and a potentially marginal boundary layer. Ratios won't be good where the heaviest QPF occurs. With a rather brief shot of heavy snow and lack of good cross-hair signature on soundings (strong lift in the DGZ), I have a hard time envisioning widespread 6"+ amounts with the shot of warm air advection snow from northern MD/southern PA across central/northern NJ and NYC. -The mid-level low doesn't start closing off until it's well east of the mid-Atlantic so there's no real deform snow. Just the quick shot of WAA snow. -The 850mb low track is from about Trenton to just south of NYC to near Providence and Taunton. Locations along and south of this line will likely see some sort of mixing. Heavy precip will likely flip to snow along and just south of the 850mb low track, but you'll waste QPF on other precip types and surface temps may also be quite marginal. Given all of this feel it'll be a widespread 4-7" across the northern mid-Atlantic. Philly will have some mixing and surface temp issues so heaviest will be just north. NYC may taint a little but should still see 4"+. There could be a locally higher lolly but I think that would only occur if the storm organizes a bit quicker and the warm air advection shot of snow is that much more intense. For southern New England the low is a bit better developed and the mid-levels close off, so the WAA shot of snow may be a bit more formidable, with a little bit of deform snow lingering into early Monday behind the low. Given this, felt more confident in a widespread 6"+ safely north of the 850mb low track in southeastern New England. Felt the 0z HREF represented a fair model blend on QPF so followed it closely, but with slightly lower amounts in the max swath and with a trimmed southern edge for reasons discussed above.
  5. It’s noticeably colder than the 12z but still amped/NW of the rest of the models.
  6. At 72 hours heights are significantly lower over the eastern US on the Euro.
  7. The hourly maps FWIW don't change NYC to rain (this is the closest it gets), but at 4+ days out I know that this is really just semantics anyways.
  8. I do sort of get a January 19-20th vibe from this, with a relatively flat wave prone to being suppressed easily by the PV, but other factors supporting a more amped/northwest solution if the PV isn't in the right spot to save the day. This is ultimately a slightly weaker wave which maybe argues for the snow occurring a little farther south into NYC and more of NJ at least? Will be interesting to watch the trends as we're still pretty far out, and we can certainly expect an emotional roller coaster of model swings!
  9. My general thoughts here are that the low will be on the strong side of guidance initially over the Plains due to a very tight temp gradient, good dual jet support, and high PWATs in the warm sector all supporting robust cyclogenesis over the Plains, and the fact that this is often under-modeled until it's onoing (which is why last second NW trends are so common). The shortwave however is flat and fairly quick moving, which will put some sort of lid on max amounts (though obviously, it won't take much to get a swath of warning criteria snows somewhere given the positives). Farther east the track will depend heavily on the location/intensity of the PV lobe, which will be determined by the interplay between the -EPO ridge, weak ridge over the western NAO domain, and the PV itself. The very strong, east based nature of the EPO may normally support a suppressed solution, but the weak faux NAO ridge breaking down quickly can still allow for enough height rises over the eastern US to overcome that. The storm being more robust to the west would support more height rises over the east. However, if the PV is farther south the rather flat shortwave won't be difficult to suppress. The departing wave off the East Coast may also act to slightly dampen the height field over the east (though it ultimately won't be a large influence). The timing of the ejecting shortwave will also be important...a faster ejection likely allows it to run ahead of the PV (and track more SW to NE instead of W to E), though could eventually result in more destructive interference with the departing shrtwave off the coast. There has been a noticable trend to eject the 3/4 shortwave faster (not to the point where there's destructive interference from the departing shortwave yet). Generally I feel there's more favoring the amped/north solution, though would caution that it wouldn't take much from the much stronger PV to suppress the rather flat shortwave. This ultimately will end up closer to today's amped solutions than the very suppressed ones from a day or two ago, though exactly how close is the question. The flat wave will react strongly to any small change in the PV's location/orientation, so while I'm not enthused for those on the southern edge of things it isn't that hard to see how the needle can be threaded.
  10. Winds really ripped here a few minutes ago when a little shower (just a few drops at the surface) moved through. Was a few minutes of long-winded gusts easily into the 40s.
  11. It will snow even if for a relatively brief time in NYC...you don’t get that much WAA (and quickly developing fgen) with a good feed of moisture and not precipitate when the mid levels are starting to warm but still cold enough for snow. Yes it will likely go to sleet quickly and it may not snow more than an inch or two, but the inch of straight sleet on top of that 1-2” of snow will be impactful.
  12. The 0z GFS and CMC flat/weak and then warm cutter evolution with the two waves Sunday night-Wednesday seems realistic in this giant middle finger of a winter.
  13. I really don't think there's a credible argument for the Pacific pattern becoming "bad" again in the middle of February. The EPS and CFS have been in good agreement on propagating the MJO into phases 8-1 by the middle of February for the last few days, and the GEFS while likely wrong with its high-amplitude loop through 6-7 first is about to enter 8 at a high-amplitude at the end of its run. This, along with both ensembles persistently showing a positive East Asian Mountain Torque which should extend the Pacific jet, develop an Aleutian low and raise the PNA suggests a good amount of change in the Pacific pattern for the better. With a persistent strong -EPO over the next two weeks cold will press in from the north and gradually push the baroclinic zone south, setting up a gradient first across New England and eventually across the mid-Atlantic that can support snow/ice chances in this continued active pattern. If we can drop the NAO as the MJO gets into phase 8-1, along with raising the PNA, the pattern can support much more than overrunning events in a gradient pattern. The floor is an active gradient pattern with light-moderate threats starting around the 10th, with the ceiling still being pretty high later in the month. It's been frustrating from a snow perspective, but we've slowly been trying to put the pattern together the last few weeks (with some near misses) and the issues plaguing it (strong convection near Australia causing a lot of phase 4-6 MJO since the strat warming event) seem to slowly be working themselves out.
  14. Two comments... 1) Was surprised to see that sort of drive-by analysis from Ryan, though I get that this winter has been frustrating for many and it's annoying to see warmth still creeping in on the ensembles, though I don't buy 0z EPS warmth for any prolonged stretch. Look back at how last winter ended and look at the calendar today and realize how early it still is, though. 2) Didn't DT call for like 400% normal snowfall along I-95?
  15. Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron and Ontario will still have some open water and Erie will still have some heat flux through the ice. Although I can generally get behind the idea of tossing the gfs beyond X day, it’s not because of what it does or doesn’t think Great Lake ice cover will be. Pertinent to this thread, the GEFS 0z was a nice step.
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