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OHweather last won the day on March 28

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About OHweather

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    Hackettstown, NJ

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  1. Judging by where temps are right now, I think SE PA and central / southern NJ are still good for a strong to severe squall line later. It's still doable N NJ into the southern Hudson Valley, but may be more isolated and marginal overall if they can't warm into the lower 60s.
  2. Ignoring the snow potential later this week for now...I'm highly skeptical of anything more than mood flakes (it does get cold, but I don't trust an anafront in January let alone April this far out)...strong forcing, strong low-level shear, and great hi-res model on a low topped squall that could bring gusty / damaging winds, maybe a spin-up or two even into much of E PA, NJ and the Hudson Valley on Sunday! The HRRR soundings are easily unstable enough for a severe threat...this is an average from the lower HV through much of NJ and far SE PA:
  3. This is going to play out roughly the opposite of what I thought a few days ago, as it looks like Thursday's storm will be the colder of the two. This has to do with when the lobe of the TPV, and its re-enforcing shot of Arctic air, will swing by to our north...it has trended too slow to re-enforce our cold air ahead of the Monday-Tuesday storm. This will relegate significant icing to New England and to areas NW of I-95 into the northern Mid Atlantic (as opposed to the metros being in play), and as everyone knows has allowed the swath of snow to shift out of most of our pictures.
  4. I don't know where you are in Boston, but if you're in Boston itself or in the north shore you probably won't get a ton of ice as the coastal front will sneak just inland with the Thursday storm if it doesn't trend a lot colder. Inland may get a fair amount, but both systems move pretty quickly and I think MA starts as snow or sleet with both and burns some QPF on that before any freezing rain. I just can't say there's a potentially historic ice storm coming for Massachusetts right now. I could see problems occurring, but not anything out of the ordinary for a New England ice event IMO. Of cou
  5. While this post discusses the weekend threat and the one later next week too, I'm going to post it in this thread since I (barely) spent the most words discussing the Monday - Tuesday threat, and because I think this is a pretty significant icing set-up for I-95 (and may be the most impactful storm overall out of the next 3). The portion of the post most directly pertinent to this threat is in the middle. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  6. After trending a bit flatter yesterday (which you can see through the 0z run of the NAM), most overnight models and now the 12z NAM have come back a bit more amped, which again makes it more precarious for rain vs snow in a spot like NYC, but likely ensures enough QPF for a healthier swath of snow along the lines of 2-4" where it sets up from parts of PA and NY into southern New England.
  7. The trends seem to be for a more zonal pattern over the central and eastern U.S., and stronger confluence east of New England. The result is a somewhat colder system, but may start flattening it out to the point where we lose QPF. Ultimately, this increases the potential that more of PA, central/northern NJ, NYC/LI and coastal south New England are snow, but will keep amounts from being more than maybe 1-3" IMO. Still, it looks like more flakes for a lot of people after today's overachiever.
  8. This is S NJ's best shot now that they've finally flipped to snow (outside of the south shore) and the best lift is over them. This will start gradually weakening after 1 pm. Glad N NJ / NYC are relatively colder and didn't waste QPF on rain like southern NJ did. Poor Philly is going to end up with higher totals to their west and east (especially Center City)
  9. This system is sensitive all around, and I'd advise against a) losing our collective minds if one cycle trends a little worse or b) getting our hopes up too high over one run showing a snowier solution. On the 0z GFS, the northern stream trended more favorably for an amped solution, but the vort itself ended up being a little flatter and the run shifted the QPF a bit farther southeast this run. There are a lot of moving pieces here...I feel like if this does trend more amped, it'd shift pretty far NW, but there's still a chance this just doesn't phase much at all and is flat.
  10. The pattern coming up is going to feature plenty of cold / Arctic air over North America to tap, along with a continued tendency for blocking over the Atlantic. A Rossby wave making machine will be in place over the western Pacific, encouraging persistent north Pacific blocking and a cross polar flow into Canada. This is occurring while a tendency for high latitude blocking continues across the board for multiple reasons. This loop of the GFS helps show the continued cross polar flow into Canada, and how the retrograding -NAO helps shove the troposphe
  11. Have been way too busy to really comment through the day, but we got absolutely nuked here. It's still snowing 0.5-1" per hour. We never get as much as the higher elevations just to my east in Morris County, but it's about two feet.
  12. Don't really have a great spot to officially measure, but 10" or so here so far and snowing better than 1" an hour even outside of the main band. The mesos seem to suggest the heaviest band lifts a bit more north/northwest before pivoting later today. It seems like the Lehigh Valley and Poconos will be the jackpot, though adjacent northern NJ and the HV will be "jackpot adjacent" and still get a crap load of snow. NYC will probably get a bit less than areas a little to their west and northwest but will still get plenty as they shouldn't dryslot for another few hours and will rip u
  13. Somewhere between 4-5" in Hackettstown and already a bit of drifting. Time to sleep for a few hours.
  14. This overrunning is overperforming significantly, especially eastern NJ into NYC. Fun as a weenie, annoying since I'm working. A lot of snow removal folks are either letting everything go until 2am or so or sent people home for a few hours after clearing everything earlier in the evening (gotta rest at some point). They'll have a bit more to plow than they bargained for when they head back out. Ratios are helping although I think the QPF was a bit undermodeled too.
  15. Pretty good agreement on the general placement of the 700mb low stall tomorrow afternoon - evening. Heaviest totals will be a bit N / NW of where this stall occurs. Eventually the low drifts north and a dry slot probably works into most of NJ, the HV and southern New England, but the damage is done by then. The UK is a bit less amped still and has a little less QPF, though I'd probably take the over.
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