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OHweather

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OHweather last won the day on June 2

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About OHweather

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  1. A long tweet thread. Curious where the western cutoff to the heavy rain ends up being.
  2. Half decent severe threat NJ/PA vicinity on Monday. A weak vort max providing lift at peak heating along and southwest of the backdoor front. Shear is weak, but good directional shear and just enough speed shear for some loose storm organization. Moderate to strong instability, someone cool and dry aloft contributing to DCAPE, and fairly low wet bulb 0’s for July. Environment seems conducive to microbursts, with any more persistent updrafts producing isolated large hail. As PWATs increase late afternoon into the evening and the LLJ ramps up some, could see some training/back building convection into the evening with a localized flooding risk. Overall weak shear and forcing will keep the threat isolated/marginal risk, but a corridor near and just south of the front over PA and NJ likely will have enough coverage to justify a slight risk for damaging winds. Elsewhere, terrain and sea breezes will contribute to at least isolated severe weather.
  3. How hot it ultimately gets in early July will largely depend on how quickly the cut-off low next week does or doesn't clear out of the northeast...those pesky upper lows have already saved us from a few very warm to hot days this summer.
  4. I've seen those posts on social media and it appears that in some cases that did happen (it didn't happen on my iPhone because my phone won't update until I buy more iCloud space). I personally don't see an issue with it (they could track you before if they really wanted to and this doesn't change that), but that's just me as they won't find anything interesting if they track me lol. It does seem that although the software was pushed onto people, you do still have to opt in or turn it on for it to do anything.
  5. The ensemble is also warm, as is the op in the days prior. I do agree that a lot of the warmth this summer will be driven by warm overnight lows as opposed to stifling daytime highs...however, if the recent drop in the AAM is the rule for the rest of the summer (which is may be given cooling waters over the Pacific and a lack of convection there) it will continue to be very warm across the CONUS as a whole, and the risk for a more legitimate heat wave would increase through July and August. The analogs I used last month for our summer outlook at work had August (and for good measure, September) with the warmest anomalies on the east coast...most of those analogs featured developing weak to moderate La Ninas in the Pacific.
  6. Maybe I'm just tired of trying to pull negative departures from thin air after the disaster that last winter was...but KNYC is running a +1.5F departure on the month through June 16th, will be near normal over the next 5 days, and then in all likelihood warm the rest of June overall and finish the month with a positive departure (which Don has been saying consistently for a while). While I think the greatest warm anomalies overall for the summer will be over the west, I think the east coast easily pulls in above normal anomalies too for the summer. The above posted "far from ideal" Euro image would be like 10F above normal for the I-95 corridor.
  7. As it seems the consensus is, I also feel the risk is not 0 but also not really that high. Given that I'm lazy and eat out no more than once a week I throw whatever I get on a plate, wash my hands and eat it...but I'm only eating for myself unlike many others, so I'm slightly more cavalier about it.
  8. Off the cuff I'm definitely skeptical of it recovering enough in the northern half of NJ for a legitimate severe threat later. A little bummed that the idea of the bow sparked by the remnant MCS worked out, but that it was a little early and dove so far south. It's nasty coming into Philly.
  9. Decent thunder and lightning here in the hell hole of NW NJ right now, though the best action has been miles to my SW. There's higher end potential with Wednesday's action, though uncertainty still exists. It seems like there are two mechanisms to watch for thunderstorm development and severe weather: Remnant MCS or MCV from tonight's activity over the Great Lakes over PA/NJ during the morning and into the afternoon The southward advancing cold front during the afternoon and evening A shortwave tracking from the Great Lakes towards northern New England will cause modest 500mb PVA and height falls during the afternoon hours, along with some right-entrance support in the upper-levels. This, along with the front, provides "okay" forcing in central/northern PA and NJ, though forcing is weaker the farther south you go. What happens with number one is uncertain, and will affect number two... Let's discuss the environment briefly: We have an unusually untapped EML for the Northeast advecting in tonight into Wednesday...as dew points increase into the low-mid 60s on Wednesday, moderate MLCAPE somewhere on the order of 1500-2500 J/KG will develop by early-mid afternoon where sufficient heating occurs. The NAM dew points seem overdone. The mid-upper level speed max glancing the region will contribute to moderate to strong deep-layer shear of 30-50 knots (increasing to the north) across the northern mid-Atlantic. Some mid-level dry air will contribute to over 1000 J/KG of DCAPE in the warm sector, with mixing to near or above 850mb where heating occurs yielding decent low-level lapse rates and inverted-V soundings. These ingredients will support large hail and microbursts with any cellular activity, along with swaths of any damaging wind with any lines or clusters, with locally significant wind damage with any bows. Let's try to take a stab at the convective evolution now: The MCS over the Midwest/Great Lakes as of this writing is the big wild card. It's running a bit faster than guidance, but is gradually becoming less organized and isn't diving south of guidance yet. There are a few ways this MCS can go into Wednesday: It runs slightly faster than guidance and moves into eastern PA late-morning and into NJ by the noon hour. It holds together and brings showers/storms, with perhaps some severe threat developing by the time it gets into NJ...likely not a high-end solution though. If this occurs, it likely nudges the frontal convection south, from parts of central/northern IN/OH into central/southern PA, perhaps northern MD, DE, and southern NJ. This would to an extent limit the threat compared to what the environment suggests is possible. It doesn't run faster than guidance and weakens considerably by morning. However, it leaves an MCV and likely contributes to differential heating, which encourages new storm development by late-morning across central or northern PA that tracks into NJ early-mid afternoon. Given the environment, MCV-aided fresh development a little later in the day could yield significant severe in eastern PA or NJ...with frontal convection from central and northern IN/OH into southern PA, MD, and DE. It does whatever the 18z NAM did and completely dissipates in the morning, with unabated heating along the front into northern PA and NJ, with frontal convection firing along I-80 early to mid-afternoon. Option 1 seems most likely, though option 2 isn't off the table if the MCS falls apart/slows down some by morning...option 2 has a fair amount of model support, but since it's running on the fast side of guidance now I'd slightly favor option 1. Option 3, aka the 18z NAM, will likely not happen. The frontal convection from the Ohio Valley into the Mason-Dixon area will be in an environment of weaker forcing and more moderate, mostly uni-directional shear but with strong instability beneath the EML. The weaker forcing may somewhat temper the coverage of severe weather, but splitting cells with a large hail / microburst threat are initially favored given the moderate but uni-directional shear. Despite the weak forcing, the sloppy storm mode and flow parallel to the front does argue for fairly quick upscale growth into small lines and clusters...any lines or clusters that bow could produce corridors of severe wind given the high DCAPE, low-level inverted-V and sufficient shear. Where exactly the northeastern extent of the frontal convection is over eastern PA/NJ will depend on how the MCS plays out. The tornado threat generally isn't much across the board, but if we see the MCV play out the right way over eastern PA/NJ (ie, later timing so it destabilizes in front of it), there could be a non-zero QLCS-style tornado risk. Otherwise, I'd be rather surprised if there was a tornado with the cold frontal convection. I can see two areas where the SPC considers enhanced risk probabilities or higher...one is E PA into NJ IF the leftover MCS/MCV is slow enough. This could warrant 30 or 45% wind probabilities along with "hatching", but, is highly conditional and I'm not sure we get it out of the gate at 6z. The other is perhaps eastern OH or western PA into southern PA and perhaps northern MD or DE if there's high enough confidence in scattered strong convection along the cold front here. Despite weaker forcing and somewhat less shear, the thermodynamics are very favorable for this region, and scattered strong convection would yield enough severe coverage to justify a 30% wind risk in that region. Given a fairly messy storm mode it's hard to expect more than a 15% hail risk being justified, but if there are any more persistent discrete supercells they could produce locally significant hail given the moderate to strong CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates. Fingers crossed that when I roll over and peak at the radar at 8 AM that the MCS isn't already messing everything up!
  10. It’ll be weird 30 or 40 years from now when people look back and go “it got to 35 degrees and snowed in NYC on May 9th, 2020?” What an evening.
  11. KNYC 090518Z AUTO VRB06KT 4SM -SN BR BKN009 OVC013 02/01 A2967 RMK AO2 RAE12SNB12 P0003 T00220006 $
  12. In Hackettstown we topped cars (but nothing else) Up Schooleys Mountain covered any non-paved surface
  13. “And then OHweather asked himself why he hadn’t driven up the mountain yet”
  14. It's snowing half decently in Hackettstown at 35F...wouldn't shock me if some of the surrounding hills get a car topper over the next hour.
  15. I'm not going to touch the synoptic snow on Friday night after the 12z/early 18z guidance, no changes to the thoughts of the NAM being both a cold and strong outlier...not impossible but would be one heck of a needle thread, and I'd favor the Poconos and Catskills over anyone closer to or east of the fall line for any legitimate accumulation potential (maybe the highest hills in NW NJ can squeak out something light on the grass). I'm hype about the potential weather on Saturday. We'll mix exceptionally deep, with near-record (or just record) cold aloft combined with surface heating from the May sun angle. It'll be unstable enough for any vort or wind shift (or maybe even terrain) to pop convective showers. How quickly the low deepens and where exactly each vort tracks will determine if it's a nice, showery/squally day with general 30-40 gusts, up to 50 in squalls, or higher end. The 12z NAM was just nuts (and the 12z Euro and GFS not far off, though the 18z NAM and 12z CMC/UKMET are more tame). This sounding for Morristown from the 12z NAM is nuts! Mixing to 500mb with 66 knot flow in the mixed layer. You'd get lightning, frozen precip and damaging winds with squalls if that environment played out. Even the models that deepen the low slower would be nice and gusty with any showers or squalls, but not damaging.
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