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OHweather last won the day on September 30

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  1. While the jet streak and fgen are still impressive early Wednesday, there's been an undeniable trend for a slightly flatter shortwave over the last several runs of the NAM (and though the GFS and CMC haven't backed off from their aggressive totals as much, this trend is still evident to a lesser extent on those models). While the jet streak is still strong and close-by with a brief period of strong fgen still modeled on the NAM along I-95 early Wednesday, which would argue for decent rates, the progressive trend is bad for any hopes of significant snow. Every model still has some snow and the ensembles still give high odds of over 1"...though the odds for 3"+ on the EPS, which were always fairly low compared to some other models, are quite low: While the dynamics and some models leave the door slightly open for more than a 1-3" snow, I have to think that's the overwhelmingly more likely solution. We'd need to see a trend towards the wetter guidance (which at this point is just the GFS and Canadian guidance, which is not the strongest camp) ASAP to see the several inch ceiling this setup has...otherwise, we can't complain tooo much about an anafront bringing any amount of snow to the I-95 corridor in early December, even if it's 1-3" with most seeing closer to the 1 than the 3. A period of legit moderate snow early Wednesday would be a nice bonus, and would still be supported by the NAM...but it would be too brief to stack up much. Edit: I just realized I started all 3 paragraphs with "while"...my apologies.
  2. If the 0z’s hold with a sharp enough shortwave I’ll start getting ready to lock it in. Despite concerns I have about the BL east of the fall line and how touchy the whole setup is, if it does come to fruition there is a signal for banded snow which would overcome a marginal boundary layer and accumulate even along/east of I-95 if it set up there. The NAM would rip snow at rush hour Wednesday morning and rates would allow for road impacts in the big cities even with surface temps of 33. I think at this point I have to shift my thinking from yesterday of some snow accumulation being less likely to being more likely than not, especially just NW if I-95 though even along/east of it has a legit shot if banded snow does occur...hopefully the general setup remains the same because it’d be kind of fun all things considered.
  3. If the shortwave trends a little flatter (which has been the trend with most 12z models) you quickly lose the favorable jet structure, which is what happened to some extent with the one prior to Thanksgiving (granted, that one had a much lower ceiling). I don't think this will completely vanish at this point but the preconceived notion that anafronts "rarely work out" is there for a reason. If we eject some of the STJ energy out and have a fairly sharp shortwave I'm all for a few inches of snow, especially outside of the urban corridor, but I still don't think we're 100% confident in that yet.
  4. Euro and RGEM all day at this range (and any range where both are available)! Would like to see the 12z's not waver today before I really start getting excited, though perhaps I'm just feeling snake-bitten by the two November anafront disappointments. I'm encouraged that the overall trends since yesterday have generally been positive though...with the two in November reliable models never consistently locked in.
  5. The 0z UKMET has temperatures in the upper 30s in NYC at 12z Wednesday but is slightly above freezing at 18z...it can be implied it's near freezing during the snow I guess but any snow would have to fall like 14-18z which wastes a lot of QPF. BL issues east of the fall line are not difficult to picture with this unless the whole thing ends up a little more suppressed than most current modeling...won't preclude a place like NYC, PHL, even BWI/DCA or southern/eastern NJ mixing with or changing to snow if the current conceptual model on guidance remains similar but can certainly cut into accums/limit road impacts.
  6. The shortwave is just sharp enough that there’s a robust right-entrance quadrant and divergence over the NE, which encourages upward motion north of the front along with a deep layer of isentropic lift over the sloped frontal boundary. There’s just enough of the southern energy oozing out (despite the bulk of it holding back) to increase the amount of moisture to work with. It is still a touchy setup, but even if the full southern piece doesn’t eject you can still get some snow if the shortwave is amplified enough to allow for upper-level divergence ahead of it.
  7. The 18z guidance was pretty much unanimous with the snowier trend! They all dropped in the northern stream energy slightly farther west and ejected a little more of the energy over Texas ahead of the northern stream. Let’s see if the 0z backs it up...huge jumps on the EPS probs for snow, though the EPS definitely followed the op a number of times last winter and I still think the 6 and 18z runs are slightly more unstable. As I said, 0z will be key to see if it backs this trend up, it’s still a fickle setup.
  8. Anafronts are such fickle b****s. I don’t have a warm and fuzzy feeling for this one after today’s trends...the EPO cold press behind the front is impressive, but it’s a matter of not squashing the energy trying to eject out of Texas. It’s a fine balancing act, the potential is still there but I think it’s probablisticaly less likely to pull off widespread accumulating snow at this juncture with this setup. I’ll hope the 0z’s trend the right way tonight! Still some hope for a minor event on the EPS but these have come down since yesterday.
  9. After not diving into the extended range since before Thanksgiving, I'm definitely pleasantly surprised we are amping the west coast ridge so much through mid-month, and I under-estimated the persistence of that feature. The rise in GWO this week (with a lot of it coming from a +EAMT) was well-forecasted and I feel I sort of glossed over the ability to amp the +PNA/-EPO that a +EAMT can have (the +PNA was not really missed, but I thought the EPO would not dip again this much into the second week of December). Although I still don't think the pattern is ideal after mid-December for east coast snow storms, the amount of cold that gets dislodged into Canada in the meantime will limit how long any larger warm ups last for much of the month (and would at least keep the door open for some snow threats, even if they're not ideal).
  10. Pushing legitimate moderate snow here now. Flakes not great but we’re somewhere between 1-1.5” today so far and it’s coming down decently. 3 or 4” feels possible if we can keep up the current rates for a couple of hours with lighter snow then lingering into tonight.
  11. Checking in from my valley location in NW NJ... Wasn't in town for yesterday, but it sounds like we got a few tenths of snow/sleet and about 0.10" of freezing rain...it warmed up enough overnight to melt the ice off the trees here in town. Driving in from the west on 80 overnight, there was a lot of ice along 80 in Warren County, probably a quarter inch or so as trees were significantly bent and were at or near the point of damage. We've picked up a bit under an inch so far this morning, rates and flake size have finally picked up a bit. I'm hoping we squeak out 2-3" by tonight but the bigger totals will likely be in Sussex and parts of Morris/Passaic.
  12. I don’t think there’s much if any freezing rain along I-95 in NE NJ, but with a high ahead of the storm and some evaporational cooling as precip arrives to help lock in the cold/dense airmass there will be some CAD, and the secondary popping will help re-enforce it too. Some of those damning spots will see snow and sleet too, but there should be some freezing rain up against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians, there almost always is.
  13. Ha I’ll be driving from Ohio back to NW NJ Sunday afternoon/evening. I usually take 80. Think it’ll be either icy or snowy in the Poconos and NW NJ as it looks now! Even if this trends catastrophically warmer (it won’t) that area will be locked in CAD.
  14. Yeah this is a sounding in that mix area. My analysis of this sounding is
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