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Everything posted by OHweather

  1. I feel like recent trends on most guidance, though showing the already amped EPS for reference, generally support the more amped solutions: The 50/50 has trended a little farther east, the SE ridge has trended a bit more amped, our shortwave has trended a little slower and more consolidated, and the PV over southern Canada has trended a bit west. This all argues for weaker confluence over the eastern U.S. and a more amped solution that the Euro suite has been advertising. I suppose we'll also need to watch the trough over the southwest for wave spacing issues, though at the mo
  2. I like the thought of this type of map and am a big fan of some of the new graphics the NWS is trying out, but what's even the point if they're going to default to the lowest "potential impact" 6 days out? Even along I-95 the potential impact could be higher than the lowest possible option, and along the Alleghenies it definitely should be. I guess it gets awareness up at day 6 and serves its purpose regardless, but there has been reasonable op and ensemble support for potentially several inches or more down there if it comes together. I feel it'll tick a little more amped and be rainier along
  3. I really should post something about next week and beyond (will try tomorrow), but in the meantime, some obvious ingredients for brief fun tomorrow morning...with potential for rather localized but also notable impacts to travel around the morning rush. 500mb temperatures will be near daily climo mins for the region this time of year, with surface temperatures actually a bit above normal: You don't really need a sounding to tell you that lapse rates will be fairly steep through a deep layer, but: In particular, in N NJ into the Hudson V
  4. The -NAO is already paying off by making the Sunday - Monday system more interesting The -NAO has trended stronger ahead of our storm, and the departing storm over the northwestern Atlantic (what will give us a cold rain or wintry mix on Friday, and snow in northern New England) has trended slower. This slows everything down with our storm, causing it to deepen faster and closer to the coast, moving away slower. Our low has trended a bit slower, and the high in front of it has trended stronger. It's not what we had on December 16, but hey it's a high and it's Januar
  5. This is a 30-day mean forecast. Quite a window for rinky dink systems in a mild airmass like Sunday-Monday to slow down and trend more interesting, and quite a window for the more delectable ones starting around January 10th, with more cold to work with, to also be quite interesting. Can't ask for much more of an opportunity than what we're likely to have coming up.
  6. Yeah, I feel the +MT weakens in the 7-10 day range, but definitely can't say it's gone yet...so, any improvements to the Pacific jet probably won't lead to a sudden, long-lasting -EPO by the middle of January, and I think we don't see significant cold through at least the middle of the month either. The EPS and GEFS both developing negative SLP anomalies over eastern Asia 300+ hours...that's too far out to lock in, but THAT would give us a real chance to pull back the Pacific jet and pop a tall ridge near the West Coast or into Alaska. Even if the ridge axis is a bit far west, it still causes
  7. There continue to be consistent ensemble hints that the strong +EAMT...giving us the strong Pacific jet and mild pattern in the near-term but weakening the polar vortex at the same time, will start weakening in 7-10 days: Note how the pressures start trending lower over eastern Asia...that's the mountain torque weakening. In response the Pacific jet begins pulling back. Also, the longwave trough over the northern Pacific starts retrograding. These all lead to a pattern where heights can start rising on the West Coast and into Alaska in the 10-15 day range, which both th
  8. So, certainly some intriguing trends over the last few days with regards to the potential Sunday - Monday system: Trending towards a stronger -NAO, a little more "traffic" across the northern Atlantic, and even a weak surface high over SE Canada, all contributing to a more robust signal for a coastal. I have little doubt we'll have a coastal low nearby. So, the Atlantic side is ok-ish. The NAO is negative, though east based. Considering there's an upper low pinned under the ridge, I'd say the NAO is definitely negative. But, there isn't really a 50/50 low (a
  9. I was rather wrong early last week with my expectation of a slightly less atrocious Pacific pattern to start January. It will suck. I thought the response to the strong +EAMT would be a little more like we had to start December along the West Coast, but a combination of different wavelengths, an exceptionally strong +EAMT, and not having something resembling an MJO working across the western hemisphere right now (as we had at the beginning of December) is causing a much less favorable response (@griteater had a great Tweet thread explaining the Pacific jet response to the +EAMT over the weeken
  10. Here are some NAM forecast soundings for this upcoming event, compared to some soundings for April 13th of this year, when parts of the NJ shore gusted over 70 and 50+ gusts occurred all the way to Scranton, causing scattered tree and power-line damage. Please ignore my inconsistent labeling of dates on these, it bugs me too... Wildwood, NJ: April 13th: Christmas Eve: Sparta, NJ: April 13th: Christmas Eve: Scranton, PA: April 13th:
  11. Typically, an "extended" Pacific jet leads to an Aleutian low, which often leads to a +PNA and sometimes a -EPO. When the Pacific jet is "retracted" it tends to support an Aleutian ridge and a -PNA. Often when we have a trough or zonal flow on the West Coast, people say that a "strong Pacific jet" is blasting in and bringing the mild weather. While that's true, the Pacific jet running straight into the West Coast is not a cold signal, it's different than an "extended" Pacific jet. If you look at the jet from Asia into western Pacific, extended and retracted wording is probably mor
  12. While there's reasonable agreement on a -AO and -NAO persisting into early January, there is some uncertainty WRT whether or not the Pacific side offers any help or not. The EPS develops a +EPO into early January, which would lead to a milder pattern. The GEFS on the other hand holds onto more ridging on the West Coast... I think how each ensemble handles the tropical forcing is at least partially responsible for this difference. The GEFS keeps western Pacific forcing dominant longer, while the EPS really ramps up forcing over the central Indian Ocean:
  13. I’ll try to post something with a little more depth today or tomorrow. But assuming we get some cooperation on the Pacific side (I think we will), the period from shortly after Christmas through the first week or so of January could be pretty wild. I don’t think we will see the TPV slide into Alaska as quickly as the EPS wants to do in early January.
  14. I ended up with about 9" here. Overall, 6" for Philly, 10" for NYC, and 12" for Hartford and Boston is decent. The band northwest of the 700mb low track from central PA through Binghamton, Albany and into New England was NUTS. A few parting thoughts... The high in front of the storm was every bit as strong and cold as expected. It ensured our front end thump, even along I-95, and caused some icing problems, again even along I-95. However, this trend in the mid-levels apparently couldn't be denied: A few things at 500mb seemed to allow this to h
  15. Ripping huge, wind blown sleet pellets here. Should try flipping back to snow within the hour.
  16. Sleeting pretty good here. Band over PA is absolutely nuts. Should clip central / northern NJ and NYC overnight. We neglected to put out our office snow board since we're mostly working from home but various measurements come up with 6.5-7" on the ground.
  17. I mean it snowed half a foot in like 3 hours and everything is covered in that which is cool but I'm also here and it ain't apocalyptic lol November of 2018 was WAY worse in terms of impacts in town
  18. Ballparking 6" or so here in Hackettstown. Was easily 2" an hour for a time. Some sleet mixing in. I wouldn't be too quick to proclaim bust for NYC (on the NWS forecast sure, but on a more reasonable 4-8 or 5-9 forecast na). Although it's junkier and will mix with sleet or drizzle or grains in lulls, we're gonna keep grinding out light-moderate precip all night in N NJ and NYC...and the snow will briefly get better again in the deform. Not exciting but it all counts.
  19. Steady moderate snow here, gonna start stackin fast soon in Hackettstown! Eyeballing 0.5-1" out the window so far.
  20. 2.7" reported just north of Vineland, NJ isn't a bad thing if you're looking for an overperformer.
  21. Have an estimate on total (can be rough) so far? Any and all obs are helpful guys, so keep em flowing! Snow starting, snow accumulating, heavy rates, mixing, anything that you observe can be potentially helpful. I am at work and passing stuff on as you post it!
  22. Flurried here briefly around 1 PM, now seem to be starting for real. CC/mixing line will be a b*tch to watch and nowcast through tonight. When the atmosphere is done saturating it will race north, but when stronger fgen starts ripping, especially in the DGZ, it will slow down/stall at times. Right now making gradual progress but there is a better fgen push over the Delmarva right now, we'll see if that slows it down as it moves into SE PA and S NJ.
  23. A few comments. I'll try to post a bit this afternoon and evening while at work (I'll be browsing for central/northern NJ/LV/NYC area obs at least), but for now... On the "oh crap" or "this argues against a big overperformer", there is a consistent signal for a relative hole in the FGEN from SE PA/Philly up through north-central NJ. This would allow mid-level warmth and the dry slot to fly up into this area quicker and reduce rates in the thump. This is why the models have a local snow hole in this area. FGEN sometimes isn't modeled well so maybe this is wrong, but it's a consisten
  24. Folks enough about the Euro sleet vs no sleet It is going to snow like hell in the warm air advection thump... Goodnight
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