Peakbagger46

I wouldn’t bet against short rangers and the Mason Dixon Line thump. Unfortunately, there’s going to be tons of dry air problems north of there until you get far enough north where the wave in the Midwest gets pulled east into the flow and gives far northern areas some snow later Tuesday.

I’m about 40-50 miles NNW of you. We are in the same boat. It’s brutal.

NWS model blend. Take whatever you can get.

If this was modeled over NC, I'd feel differently, but this is still close enough to be tantalizing, especially in the Philly to Baltimore corridor. It's still close enough here to be sucked in to continue tracking.

Well...bundle up!

Congrats, Virginia

In my opinion, and I might be incorrect about this: It's not in the right position to do that for the Philly to NYC corridor. The TPV would need to be much further west, and not directly on top of the shortwave. If it keeps pressing south, all it does is further dampen heights and push the storm south, but if it came in on the backside at a better angle we could tug this north, and that's not happening. Best case scenario is the low just develops further north, because it's going to track east and not up the coast.

Well, that's the opposite of what we want...

While we are waiting for the GFS, here are those changes at the surface. The much more amplified and neutral trough bodes well for Mid Atlantic peeps.

It's the ICON and it sucks, but it showed the changes with the TPV we need to see. The Mid Atlantic shortwave is still an open trough, but it was a big improvement this run. Need to see other guidance start doing this very very soon with the TPV.

Long range HRRR looks a lot better for me just north of Philly where almost every model is showing a major dry air punch. Will take with a huge grain of salt until another short range model jumps on board.

Getting meaningful snows 100 miles further north is still in the realm of possibility, and would make many, many posters happy. This is not Boston's storm.

The GEFS has stubbornly held its ground on the northern side of the envelope.

The operational GFS has multiple snow threats beyond Thursday’s storm. Let’s try to keep the emotions and pessimism from getting in the way of good, fun tracking. One of these will get us, whether it’s a some nickel and dimers, or a much bigger event.