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About Peakbagger46

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    Chalfont, PA

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  1. It could be a real gamechanger if that low near New Brunswick is a real entity. If that can drift closer towards Newfoundland and Labrador while that Greenland Block remains steady, we're really going to create a traffic jam for the next potential system that awaits around the 28th or so. I really think things might be setup a whole lot better for that event than the next Tuesday potential system.
  2. If pre-Thanksgiving fails, we reload again around the 28th or so for another crack at it with a continued -NAO block and Western US ridging. I see two distinct periods to watch here before the pattern becomes a little bit more ambiguous heading into Dec.
  3. I got to witness these towers explode in a matter of minutes as they developed overhead and jussst to my east here in Chalfont, PA. A couple of cracks of thunder too.
  4. Very rapid convective initiation here in Bucks County moments ago as the negatively tilted potent shortwave moves NE into an environment with surface temps in the 60's. It's more than enough today. Lookout NNJ, NYC, Southern New England. This means business.
  5. I'd root for this 100%. It doesn't even need to be something more this early in the season. Robust clippers aren't something we've had in several seasons it feels like. First taste?
  6. 18Z GFS coming in colder with a more depressed height field with the clipper early next week compared to the 12Z run. Entire s/w shifts a good bit south this run...
  7. All models like this clipper type system early next week. Exact track, thermal profiles, and moisture content (does it pick up some moisture from the Gulf, or not and lose it's moisture over the Apps) need to be worked out, but this is definitely a signal for something wintry here, especially away from the Coastal Plain.
  8. Seems like this could have been sniffed out from a few days ago while we were all dealing with the last storm. Thank goodness for the inversion here, or we would have been dealing with a heck of a lot stronger winds inland given the pressure gradient and a 50 knot+ low level jet. Coastal areas in NJ, DE, and MD were definitely not spared of damaging wind gusts and coastal flooding, however.
  9. Trying to take these one at a time here, but this I can't help but notice the pressure gradient here showing up on modeling for Friday PM. Looks like another period of decently gusty winds possibly preceding rainfall w/ the storm during the early part of Halloween Weekend. Just something to keep tabs on. Luckily, this system unravels a bit as it heads into the Northeast, but an active stretch nonetheless. Edit: We'll need to monitor the strength of the LLJ and see if it's co-located with heavier precip and monitor any potential inversions once mesoscale guidance comes into range.
  10. 18Z Euro is a very serious storm for Southern New England. A looping storm of this strength is undoubtedly going to cause major wind and coastal erosion to shore points in SE MASS, RI, SE CT, and Eastern LI.
  11. Incoming https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.78/40.523/-72.938
  12. Classic Miller B cyclogenesis well underway off of the Mid Atlantic Coast now. You can easily see the cooling cloud tops as the secondary low begins to deepen. Definitely a nice warm up system to dust off those rusty winter storm tracking skills.
  13. NWS Mount Holly has expanded flash flood watches a few counties to the west, which should be of no surprise to anybody.
  14. Somebody in Southern New England is certainly going to get a heck of a lot of rainfall with this setup...
  15. Haven't seen much discussion about next week, but there's been some pretty significant changes on modeling in the last day or so. This is one of those situations where you can't just forecast based off of H5 maps. Despite a very anomalous upper level ridge over the East, that surface high in Northern New England continues to trend stronger and stronger on modeling. Could see quite an onshore flow develop, and stave away what would be a pretty hot and humid few days early week.
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