Peakbagger46

2" of snow fell here in Chalfont, PA (Bucks County) before the changeover. Moderate sleet w/ some freezing rain continues. No way this changes to rain here before shutoff. 25/20

Yes. Here is a link. You can navigate to your local radar. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-24

You can move this over to the current observations thread if it doesn't belong here, but is anybody else watching how this New England storm deepens to set the table for the weekend storm? Current two hour pressure change. Surface low in Northern Ohio, with pressure drops to the NE.

EPS mean

GFS is looking a lot more euroish. Delayed arrival of precip w/ strong CAD signal and very dry air. Primary low isn't really more suppressed, though.

GFS looks like a step in the right direction aloft through hour 114. Ridging ahead of the system a little less pronounced.

For the area around me (SEPA), things may get interesting in the pre-dawn hours. A little bit of an inversion in place ahead of the frontal band of showers/storms late, but definitely not much of one. An 80 kt LLJ will be ripping overhead, and some of these winds will mix down to the surface. I wouldn’t be surprised to get woken up really early by severe thunderstorm warnings. Tornado threat looks very low.

Sure would be a nice intermission during our extensive ridging period out east...

12Z UKIE.

So, just out of curiosity...is anybody fearful of too much southern stream influence in the coming pattern, or is that just me (speaking for locations closer to the coast of course)? I would honestly feel better that if we can shut off the southern stream, and get a few clipper-type storms, or an even more rare clipper to coastal transfer we would be better off than a super thread the needle phased system with the southern stream. It just seems like too much of a fragile pattern to gamble with the southern stream until we have a plentiful cold air source locked in. Thoughts?

I guess a zonal look beats a torch any day, but I don't know who is calling for a torch. We are certainly going to have to thread the needle as the pattern looks pretty unfavorable for the next few weeks. This isn't a great look, but it could be far worse.

This is going to make a mess of things...

I don't think this is too far from being interesting for a lot more folks in New England, NW NJ, NE PA, and perhaps close to NYC. If ridging continues to trend stronger in the Hudson Bay Region, we should see a transfer happen further south. I'm too far south for this one, but I certainly would watch it.

There is definitely a lot of virga on the western edge of the precip shield. A lot of sites showing precip on radar are not reporting precip. This is oh so typical of anafronts, as dry air eats up the moisture.

I’ve been watching this. I think the mosaic radars are more bark than bite with drier air filtering in behind the front. Take Memphis, for example. A good deal of precip on the NW edge appears to be Virga.