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chescopawxman

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About chescopawxman

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    East Nantmeal Township, Chester County PA

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  1. Latest Wxsim with 12z models still showing a front end thump with a little earlier arrival of snow and a slight increase in snow but less ice for NW Chester County PA (35 mi NW of PHL) - here is the rundown Light snow arrives by 130pm / Mod Snow at 3pm / Heavy Snow at 5pm continuing thru 830pm with 5.0" of snow by that time. Mix of Snow and heavy sleet through 1130 pm with 2" to 3" of sleet (Total snow/sleet 7-8") before a brief change to ZR and then rain by 1230am continuing till 7am with 1.00" of rain with temps reaching 37 before starting to fall late AM
  2. Local Wxsim model for NW Chester County PA has flurries late PM tomorrow with Light snow by 9pm with 1" of snow by 3am and another 1.3" before ending at 9am for a total of 2.3" - more toward Southern Chester County and South Jersey. Currently Clear 25.1 with a DP of 9.8 degrees
  3. A mix of light IP and snow has just started in East Nantmeal Township PA temp 31.0 DP 15.5
  4. With our 0.16" of rain since midnight and 0.42" since yesterday we are for a rarity....below normal rainfall for the month and YTD at only 0.44" vs our normal here in Chester County of 0.53". Of greater interest to the winter weather weenies on our forum is the fact that for the 1st time this winter season we are below normal for snowfall. Through today here in NW Chester County PA we are at 7.3" of snow for the season with a normal of 7.5" through today.
  5. Hello Newman! indeed as you mention the higher spots like mine in NW Chester County over 650ft asl do make out better in those marginal events. I would have loved to see how much accumulated here back in the March of 1958 - a pure elevation driven storm that left 50" in Morgantown, Berks County just 7 miles from me. While Allentown only recorded 20" and Philly 11". A lot of folks don't realize that areas N and W of Philly like NW Chesco and Berks County average as much snow 36" in a winter season as Chicago IL - how is that for coffee table weather conversation?? Below is a shot of helicopters rescuing drivers from the Morgantown Interchange of the Turnpike
  6. While we already have had over 7" of snow this season - December will finish as just our 17th snowless December in 125 years of local data here in Chester County PA. So with that in mind you would think we will not be having an above normal snow year in this area. In those 16 years of snowless Decembers we have ended with between no snow at all in the 72/73 winter to as much as 40.8" in 2015/16. Overall only 2 of those 16 winters ( 2015/16 and 1978/79) ended with above normal snowfall (~36") in this area of the Philadelphia suburbs. All of that said I still like our chances of just the 3rd above normal snow season totals despite the lack of December snowfall.
  7. With not much going on winter weather wise I went back to attempt to quantify how unusually snowy against climo we are in this area and how spoiled the younger generation is regarding snow. What I will share below is for Chester County PA which does a little better regarding snowstorms than my hometown where I grew up Philadelphia PA. While I don't have the exact stats for PHL at my fingertips (someone here will come up with it) - I grew up in Philly during the 1970's and I believe there was not a snowstorm over 6" from 1967 until January 1978 - so from the time I was 3 yrs old till I was 14 there was not one storm over 6". On top of that imagine the horror of not any snow at all in a winter season - well that occurred both in philly and Chester County during the winter of 1972/73. Now if that happened today in the age of global warming/climate change which now allows us to expect at least a couple significant (>6") snows every year - weenies everywhere would be complaining a blue streak. Just a warning those years are coming again as I am a big believer in all of this being cyclical - so brace yourselves! Anyway here in Chester County we average a 6" snowstorm about 1.5 times each winter season. However, just like in philly the 1970's were not kind. In fact we had 5 winter seasons without a 6" snow event in Chester County those being 1970/71 - 1972/73 (no snow at all!!) - 1974/75 - 1976/77 and 1979/80. The 1940's and 1950's were also not snowy (despite what my Dad likes to tell me) - the 1940's experienced 4 winters without a 6" snow while the 1950's had 3 seasons without a significant snowstorm. Of course this decade we are on pace for our snowiest decade on record...plus we have only had 1 season (2012/13) without a 6" snowstorm. If we keep that streak going we would match the 1901-1910's and 1960's with only 1 season without a significant snow.
  8. 6z Euro shows NW Chester County PA rip off zone with the upcoming rain event. I am rooting on another 2.90" to get us to a nice round 80" of precip for the year. Looking at latest guidance probably not gonna be enough between this event and the NY Eve event to push us over the top...
  9. With so many folks on here and other forums always bemoaning the snow seasons of yesteryear here in the Northeast I thought it might be intereresting to put this into perspective. The below is for my location in the NW suburbs of Philadelphia with local coop records from 1894 to Present. I know others have done some similar analysis as I believe Boston and maybe NYC could also be on all all-time snowy decade pace. If you have local records please post here - thanks! So far this decade here in Chester County PA we have been averaging 45.0" of snow each season. Normal seasonal snow averages only 35.8" in the County. So, if we were to keep this pace over the remaining 2 winter seasons of this decade we will finish as the snowiest decade since NWS Coop record keeping began in the 1890's. Below are the 13 decades ranked from greatest to least. 1) 2010-2020: 45.0" (partial) 2) 1900-1910: 44.9" 3) 1910-1920: 39.0" 4) 2000-2010: 37.9" 5) 1894-1900: 34.2" (partial) 6) 1920-1930: 33.3" 7) 1980-1990: 33.0" 8) 1960-1970: 31.7” 9) 1990-2000: 31.5” 10) 1950-1960: 25.4” 11) 1930-1940: 24.4” 12)1970-80: 21.7” 13) 1940-1950: 21.6”
  10. 0.11" total precip with .08" since midnight. Mix of light rain and snow continued most of the night with the most snow mix at around 3am with the relative "heaviest" rates based on my webcam video. Temps never got below 35 so clearly no accumulation - current temp 37.0 - Merry Christmas to all!!
  11. A light mix of snow and rain has begun here in NW Chester County PA above 650 ft asl temp at 39.4
  12. spots in the Philly burbs above 500 ft would be snow if precip falls as modeled.
  13. With a little snow possible on Christmas Eve morning I thought I would go back and review the Christmas snow history for Chester County PA (1894 to Present) if you have your local data please post it here. Here in Chester County we have a 1 year of every 4 or 25% chance of having snow on the ground on Christmas Day with the most recent being last year when 0.3" was on the ground. Now for my records I am only counting days that had at least 1" of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. The greatest snow depth recorded on Christmas was the 25" of snow on the ground Christmas Night following a 21.2" storm including lightning and thunder that began Christmas Eve. this followed the 8.8" that fell earlier that week on the 20th. The next snowiest Christmas was from a storm that began at 8am on Christmas day back in 1909 and continued into the next day ending at 6:30am on the 26th (for both of these events I have attached the coop reports including W.T. Gordon's note that is was "snowing furiously and very deep snow" in 1909. Of note this snowstorm also represents our 2nd greatest individual snowstorm in County history as 38" had accumulated by the time it ended. The only greater snowstorm in our history was the 3 day Blizzard of February 12-14, 1899 when a whopping 45.3" of snow fell with temps mainly in the single digits during the storm duration. The coldest Christmas Eve and Day occurred back in 1980 when the morning lows both days were below zero with the 24th at 2 below and Christmas Day at 6 below zero. Of interest just 3 years later in 1983 we also had below zero Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with lows of 1 below and 3 below respectively. That Christmas Day in 1983 was also the coldest Christmas Day with a high of just 6 degrees above zero. By contrast the warmest Christmas Eve was just 3 years ago when we recorded a high temp of 68.5 in 2015 the next day Christmas was also mighty toasty with a high of 66.7 but a tick behind the 67 degree reading from 1964. The wettest holiday was the 1.63" that fell on Christmas Eve 1986 and the 1.92" that fell on Christmas Day 1967. No matter your weather I hope all of you have a Merry Christmas!! All the best, Paul
  14. Hi Don - indeed it is - this is a record wet year with my local data set going all the way back to 1894. With the 0.05" overnight we are up to 76.99" eclipsing the old mark of 75.12" set back in 1996.
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