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chescopawxman

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    East Nantmeal Township, Chester County PA

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  1. 1st 30's of the year here in NW Chester County PA and 1st 30's for temps since April 29th. Many lower spots below 600 ft saw some frost and freezing lows this AM. Still no frost or freeze here in East Nantmeal. Today's highs across the high spots of Western Chester County ranged from 57.1 in Elverson to 60.8 at KMQS Coatesville. Here in East Nantmeal we only made it to 58.7 - a couple degrees below normal.
  2. Latest Article I write for a local newsletter for Western Chester County PA in the philly burbs Hello again from Paul at the East Nantmeal PA Weather Station (www.chescowx.com). Be sure to follow me on twitter at chescopawxman where I am tweeting daily climate reports, forecast updates and weather and drone photos of our beautiful Township. When I wrote my last article, in early August we had just experienced a warmer and wetter than normal July. This included 2 days that exceeded 90 degrees; however, those 2 days would be the only days all summer that exceeded 90 degrees. So technically out township never experienced a heat wave (defined as 3 consecutive days over 90) As I mentioned in my last article down in Philadelphia at the airport, they recorded 35 days over 90 degrees with multiple heat waves. The relative high elevation of our township spares us from many 90-degree days (we only average 4 in a typical summer season) . August would continue our warmer than normal stretch marking the 9th straight month of above normal temperatures. The average temperature was 72.4 which was 2.2 degrees above normal. One big change in our weather was the turn to a much drier pattern that would last throughout both August and September. During August we recorded only 2.71” of rain which was 1.59” below normal. This followed 5 straight months from March through July with above normal rainfall. September would start off wet with 1.16” of rain falling on the 2nd but only another 0.68” would fall over the remaining 28 days of the month. We would end the month with only 1.84” of rain which is 2.90” below our normal September rainfall of 4.74”. No doubt both our Township farmers and residents noticed their fields and lawns quickly turning brown. However, despite the back to back dry months we are still running 110% of normal YTD rainfall with 40.85” of rain and melted snow having fallen in East Nantmeal so far in 2019. September continued our string of above normal temperatures with an average temp of 67.3 degrees (+2.3 degrees to normal). However, we did record our 1st couple of mornings with an autumnal chill as both the 19th and 20th saw low temps in the upper 40’s with the lowest being the 47.6 on the 19th. Those mornings marked the 1st sub-50-degree temperatures in the Township since the 47.4 back on June 4th. Overall for the summer period from June through September we averaged a temperature of 71.3 this was the 45th warmest summer in Chester County since local records began in 1894. The warmest being the 74.7 average recorded way back in the summer of 1900. This year was the 6th warmest summer in the 36 years dating back to 1983. As I write this on October 6th, we have noted a pretty large pattern change that looks to persist through much of the rest of October with cooler and wetter weather in our future. We have not yet recorded a sub-freezing temperature meaning our growing season (days between last and 1st freezes) continues here in the township. The average growing season in East Nantmeal is 188 days. This has ranged from as few as 144 days in 1996 to 233 days in 2005. Today is our 188th day of this growing season. The average date of our 1st freeze is October 23rd; however, it has occurred as early as October 1st in 1993 and as late as November 23rd in 2015. Snowfall is unlikely in the township until late November; however, we have experienced significant snowfalls in the last 8 years most notably the 9” of wet snow that fell on October 29, 2011 and the 7.3” of snow that fell last November 15thand 16th. During November we average just over 1” of snow and during December just under 5 inches. Our normal average seasonal snowfall is 36.6” (fun fact this is the same as Chicago IL) I will hold off on my annual detailed monthly winter forecast until our next issue just before the holidays….however, I am expecting a slightly above normal snow season and at least one major snowstorm of greater than 10”. Until next time I hope all of you enjoy the autumn weather. If you have any questions, please visit my website, follow me on twitter or send me an email. Until next time –All the best! Paul Until next time –All the best! Paul “Some are weather-wise, some are otherwise” Ben Franklin
  3. Today's Highs across Western Chester County PA in the Philly burbs ranged from 87.8 at KMQS and 86.2 in East Nantmeal....of course no heat wave in Western Chester County PA as neither location has seen a day above 90 degrees during this stretch. While PHL airport has now reported their 28th day over 90 degrees the philly burbs just 30 miles west of town have only seen 4 such days at KMQS and 2 days in East Nantmeal all summer. With the most recent reported "heat wave" in the Mount Holly NWS zones of interest of the 31 NWS/FAA sites across the Tri-State area of PA/NJ/DE only 12 sites or 39% of all such stations reported a heat wave with the last 3 days exceeding the 90 degree mark. While 13 sites saw 2 days over 90; 3 sites saw only 1 day over 90 and of course the old chilly standbys of Mount Pocono (KMPO); Chester County Airport (KMQS) and East Nantmeal Township saw no such days. If it wasn't for the local news only using PHL airport would a report of a heat wave in the philly area constitute fake news?
  4. Latest Wxsim with 12z models still showing a front end thump with a little earlier arrival of snow and a slight increase in snow but less ice for NW Chester County PA (35 mi NW of PHL) - here is the rundown Light snow arrives by 130pm / Mod Snow at 3pm / Heavy Snow at 5pm continuing thru 830pm with 5.0" of snow by that time. Mix of Snow and heavy sleet through 1130 pm with 2" to 3" of sleet (Total snow/sleet 7-8") before a brief change to ZR and then rain by 1230am continuing till 7am with 1.00" of rain with temps reaching 37 before starting to fall late AM
  5. Local Wxsim model for NW Chester County PA has flurries late PM tomorrow with Light snow by 9pm with 1" of snow by 3am and another 1.3" before ending at 9am for a total of 2.3" - more toward Southern Chester County and South Jersey. Currently Clear 25.1 with a DP of 9.8 degrees
  6. A mix of light IP and snow has just started in East Nantmeal Township PA temp 31.0 DP 15.5
  7. With our 0.16" of rain since midnight and 0.42" since yesterday we are for a rarity....below normal rainfall for the month and YTD at only 0.44" vs our normal here in Chester County of 0.53". Of greater interest to the winter weather weenies on our forum is the fact that for the 1st time this winter season we are below normal for snowfall. Through today here in NW Chester County PA we are at 7.3" of snow for the season with a normal of 7.5" through today.
  8. Hello Newman! indeed as you mention the higher spots like mine in NW Chester County over 650ft asl do make out better in those marginal events. I would have loved to see how much accumulated here back in the March of 1958 - a pure elevation driven storm that left 50" in Morgantown, Berks County just 7 miles from me. While Allentown only recorded 20" and Philly 11". A lot of folks don't realize that areas N and W of Philly like NW Chesco and Berks County average as much snow 36" in a winter season as Chicago IL - how is that for coffee table weather conversation?? Below is a shot of helicopters rescuing drivers from the Morgantown Interchange of the Turnpike
  9. While we already have had over 7" of snow this season - December will finish as just our 17th snowless December in 125 years of local data here in Chester County PA. So with that in mind you would think we will not be having an above normal snow year in this area. In those 16 years of snowless Decembers we have ended with between no snow at all in the 72/73 winter to as much as 40.8" in 2015/16. Overall only 2 of those 16 winters ( 2015/16 and 1978/79) ended with above normal snowfall (~36") in this area of the Philadelphia suburbs. All of that said I still like our chances of just the 3rd above normal snow season totals despite the lack of December snowfall.
  10. With not much going on winter weather wise I went back to attempt to quantify how unusually snowy against climo we are in this area and how spoiled the younger generation is regarding snow. What I will share below is for Chester County PA which does a little better regarding snowstorms than my hometown where I grew up Philadelphia PA. While I don't have the exact stats for PHL at my fingertips (someone here will come up with it) - I grew up in Philly during the 1970's and I believe there was not a snowstorm over 6" from 1967 until January 1978 - so from the time I was 3 yrs old till I was 14 there was not one storm over 6". On top of that imagine the horror of not any snow at all in a winter season - well that occurred both in philly and Chester County during the winter of 1972/73. Now if that happened today in the age of global warming/climate change which now allows us to expect at least a couple significant (>6") snows every year - weenies everywhere would be complaining a blue streak. Just a warning those years are coming again as I am a big believer in all of this being cyclical - so brace yourselves! Anyway here in Chester County we average a 6" snowstorm about 1.5 times each winter season. However, just like in philly the 1970's were not kind. In fact we had 5 winter seasons without a 6" snow event in Chester County those being 1970/71 - 1972/73 (no snow at all!!) - 1974/75 - 1976/77 and 1979/80. The 1940's and 1950's were also not snowy (despite what my Dad likes to tell me) - the 1940's experienced 4 winters without a 6" snow while the 1950's had 3 seasons without a significant snowstorm. Of course this decade we are on pace for our snowiest decade on record...plus we have only had 1 season (2012/13) without a 6" snowstorm. If we keep that streak going we would match the 1901-1910's and 1960's with only 1 season without a significant snow.
  11. 6z Euro shows NW Chester County PA rip off zone with the upcoming rain event. I am rooting on another 2.90" to get us to a nice round 80" of precip for the year. Looking at latest guidance probably not gonna be enough between this event and the NY Eve event to push us over the top...
  12. With so many folks on here and other forums always bemoaning the snow seasons of yesteryear here in the Northeast I thought it might be intereresting to put this into perspective. The below is for my location in the NW suburbs of Philadelphia with local coop records from 1894 to Present. I know others have done some similar analysis as I believe Boston and maybe NYC could also be on all all-time snowy decade pace. If you have local records please post here - thanks! So far this decade here in Chester County PA we have been averaging 45.0" of snow each season. Normal seasonal snow averages only 35.8" in the County. So, if we were to keep this pace over the remaining 2 winter seasons of this decade we will finish as the snowiest decade since NWS Coop record keeping began in the 1890's. Below are the 13 decades ranked from greatest to least. 1) 2010-2020: 45.0" (partial) 2) 1900-1910: 44.9" 3) 1910-1920: 39.0" 4) 2000-2010: 37.9" 5) 1894-1900: 34.2" (partial) 6) 1920-1930: 33.3" 7) 1980-1990: 33.0" 8) 1960-1970: 31.7” 9) 1990-2000: 31.5” 10) 1950-1960: 25.4” 11) 1930-1940: 24.4” 12)1970-80: 21.7” 13) 1940-1950: 21.6”
  13. 0.11" total precip with .08" since midnight. Mix of light rain and snow continued most of the night with the most snow mix at around 3am with the relative "heaviest" rates based on my webcam video. Temps never got below 35 so clearly no accumulation - current temp 37.0 - Merry Christmas to all!!
  14. A light mix of snow and rain has begun here in NW Chester County PA above 650 ft asl temp at 39.4
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