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chescopawxman

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    East Nantmeal Township, Chester County PA

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  1. WXSIM for Chester County PA (NW Philly burbs) with 12z data again ticked a bit colder and a little more snow/sleet accumulation with a bit earlier start time - total snow sleet 3.5" to 4.5" Here is the rundown: 10am snow arrives temp (22.2) 1pm Moderate IP (23.6) 4pm Heavy IP (23.4) 7pm Heavy Snow (23.6) Snow ends around 8pm
  2. Part of the reason is the recently completed decade here in Chester County PA (NW Philly burbs) was our snowiest decade over the last 11 decades...
  3. Latest WXSIM with 6z NAM/GFS data has trended colder for NW Chester County PA I'm a bit surprised my zone forecast does not include a WWA. It could be the NWS cannot split the zone north vs. south. My point and click has a high of 37 for me tomorrow in East Nantmeal... I will take the way under - I will be surprised if we get near or above freezing. Total snow and sleet accumulation around 2" to 3". Here is the rundown of precipitation types temperatures and timing 12 noon Light snow (temp) (25.3) 1pm Moderate sleet (24.7) 4pm Heavy sleet (23.6) 7pm Heavy snow (23.6) 8pm snow ending (23.9)
  4. Hi CCB - no worries it only uses what's available so clearly GFS is all that's left to blend outside it's time frame - hope that helps
  5. Latest WXSIM program with a combination of the 12z NAM/GFS data for East Nantmeal Township in NW Chester County PA trended a bit snowier but still mainly sleet with temps never rising above freezing. Timing - Snow arrives by 1230pm briefly heavy before changing to IP by 2pm then IP heavy at times before mixing back with snow by 6pm and ending by 730pm - total snow/sleet accumulation 3" to 4"
  6. Assuming around the WXSIM program methodology? to put it simply it takes a blend of the GFS/NAM (no Euro or others) for my specific location and makes an in my backyard forecast - for more info check out www.wxsim.com
  7. Latest Wxsim for Chester County PA for next weekend with 12z NAM/GFS combo - of course we don't shovel model snow!! Saturday: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet and snow likely in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill ranging from 11 to 18. Wind east-southeast around 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 12 to 16 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog in the evening. A chance of a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of rain and snow after midnight. Low 30, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 29. Wind south around 10 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.
  8. For our 2nd straight day a record high...and this time an all-time all elevation Chester County PA record of 64.4 at 1:44am besting the old mark of 61.8 set just 3 years ago. Also recorded 0.35" of rain with the frontal passage with a high wind gust of 24mph
  9. 63.7 currently which is the high temp - also represents a elevation record high for the day - eclipsing the old mark of 59.6 in 2014. The all-time Chester County PA mark of 67 set back in 1975 appears to remain safe
  10. East Nantmeal Township - Chester County PA 8pm Obs Light Snow and 32.5 but appears accumulation is over. Total accumulation was 1.5" (ties for our largest snow of the season!) back on December 11th. With our 1.5" of snow today and the 1st for the new year we are at 69% of normal snow for January through today (2.2"). Seasonal Snow now stands at 3.5" which is only 42% of our normal seasonal snow of 8.4" through the 7th.
  11. East Nantmeal Township Chester County PA 5pm obs Light snow temp 33.7
  12. Latest WXSIM for NW Chester County PA with 6z data holds serve with Snow arriving by 330pm. Snow gets heavy between 6 and 7pm before ending by 11pm. Total snow accumulation of 3.8" to 4.5". I still expect this to trend lower with the 12z runs... this will be a highly elevation dependent event with the only chance at approaching the above levels being above 650 ft - IMHO
  13. I think this brings accumulating snow even to south of the mason dixon line - could be some boundary layer issues early on that will help inland spots (like mine in the philly burbs) with a little elevation. Thinking some will be lost to white rain on the coastal plain. Although low DPs will even get the coastal locales where they need to be...
  14. So in analyzing completed decade data in the Chester County PA data set we see the following highlighted Trends. The Decade of 2010-19 was the 4th straight decade with increasing temperatures - which followed 4 straight decades of decreasing temperatures. Sounds kind of cyclical! This decade was the warmest decade in the data set with the current decade outpacing the previous warm decade (1910-19) by an average of 0.22 degrees or an increase of 0.4% This was also the snowiest decade on record besting the previous all-time snowiest decade with an average of 45.5" of snow per year. This eclipses the previous snowiest decade of 1900-1909 by 0.4 inches or 0.8% increase from the previous snowiest decade. Interesting to note that the coldest decade 1970-79 recorded the least average snowfall while the warmest decade 2010-19 saw the most snow. What will the future changing climate bring us?
  15. Happy New Year to all! Another year in the books - let's see how we did climate wise The average temperature for 2019 was 53.6 degrees which was 2.7 degrees above normal - this was the 9th warmest year since 1983 and the 23rd warmest in Chester County history back to 1894. The warmest temperature was the 92.5 degree high on July 21st - this was 1 of only 2 times this summer we exceeded 90 degrees. We average only 4 such days in a typical summer season The coldest reading was the 4.8 degrees below zero low on January 31st Total precipitation was 55.10" (w.e.) which was 6.44" above our normal of 48.66" this was the 17th wettest year since 1894. Well behind the wettest year set just last year in 2018 when we recorded 79.21" Total snow fall was only 29.8" which was 6.2" below our annual normal snow total of 36.0" (our 63rd lowest total since 1894) No matter your weather this year I hope you all have a healthy and prosperous 2020! Paul
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