brooklynwx99

Unfortunately, this evolution made total sense given the conditions that Laura moved into. Very warm SSTs with almost zero shear through 300mb is a recipe for RI through landfall, and that's exactly what we're seeing here. Wouldn't be surprising whatsoever to see a Category 5 system before landfall.

Not calling out anyone in particular here, but when you make a claim like “people are over (or under) hyping this event,” please give some evidence for your claim. Doesn’t have to be some university-level analysis or anything like that, just give some reasoning. It gets tiresome to see all the great analysis followed by unsubstantiated “forecasts.” For example, many (including myself) based the tornado threat in particular on soundings that showed highly curved hodographs, indicating anomalous wind shear. This was a well done forecast. Also, learning what to look for in soundings a

Craziest sounding I’ve seen yet. Absolute textbook hodograph for severe cyclonic storms with massive 0-1 km directional shear. Perhaps the most striking feature is the almost 0.4 probability of an EF2+ tornado at KNYC using storm relative helicity and bulk wind difference (derived from 0-6km shear). Never seen anything like it before. It’s gonna be a sick day tomorrow.

This is a seriously concerning sounding. Huge tornado signal with significant shear in the lower levels of the atmosphere with a good amount of CAPE to promote high instability. That's not even mentioning the strong winds mixing down during these storms.

holy crap

Looks like we could have a shot at some strong single-cell convection in the late afternoon and evening in the NYC metro. Great MLCAPE of over 2000 with insane SBCAPE as well as a very moist surface, but the minimal shear in the lower levels of the atmosphere will limit the severity of these storms, most likely. Could be an interesting evening.

Based on the last run of the HRRR, it looks like we could actually have a pretty potent severe weather setup this afternoon. Decent SBCAPE of around 1500, but the circular hodograph is really what sells it; there’s going to be great shear up to about 4-5km, which could lead to some more cyclonic cells to develop. The primary threat would be strong winds. The big caveat here is the amount of heating we’re going to get before the storms move through in a few hours. I don’t see KEWR getting up to 89, as they’re only at 82 right now. However, the wind profile i

Just the final kicker for this garbage winter: a sick pattern... in May.

point proven

I haven't posted my thoughts on the upcoming pattern in a while, so here goes. I'm actually very optimistic about the state of affairs entering February for a variety of reasons, the most prominent ones being the superposition of the polar and subtropical jets and the Pacific jet extension. As of now, the pattern is pretty awful for snow due to a Pacific intrusion because of a strong, zonal polar jet. This has lead to a relatively snowless pattern with highly positive temperature anomalies throughout the CONUS. However, as we enter the 5 day range, the patt

Personally, I think one of the more important factors is the system that pushes through before the SWFE. It has begun to trend in a more amplified direction in the last several runs: The heightened amplification of this feature leads to more CAA behind the system along with a more favorable NW-SE tilting of the 500mb flow. This, in turn, leads to a more favorable antecedent airmass for the SWFE: This system should be monitored closely. If it ticks more amplified yet again, then expect to see a colder run. This could be offset by a more amplified

LMFAO

One more tick like that and things get real, real quick.

The 06z NAM, yet again, is more amplified and farther west, promoting higher heights over the EC. This should make another favorable jump.

GFS actually looks a bit more amplified with higher heights out front than the NAM through 12: