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About brooklynwx99

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    Master Wx Expert / Met Student
  • Birthday 06/18/1999

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  1. Talk about a trend, the GEFS is almost in line with the GEPS and EPS. This is getting close to a KU pattern.
  2. This pattern evolution on the GEPS from day 7 onwards is just sick. If the EPS moves towards this, it’s game on. This would almost certainly lead to a SECS+. There’s also been a consistent trend over the last couple cycles to strengthen the +PNA and introduce ridging into Greenland:
  3. Here it is! I don’t think that the upcoming pattern is too similar to this one, as most of our blocking seems to be in the PNA region instead of the NAO region. However, I could easily envision a -NAO forced via wave breaking event mid-month. This pattern doesn’t look to form in the 15 day range, but perhaps later on in the month or in January when possible stratospheric events take place. That’s where many other posters also think things could get really interesting. This is not to say that other events can’t occur, though, as I think there’s
  4. Really big shift on the 00z GEFS in the 8-10 day range. This doesn't look like a huge deal, but the more amplified +PNA allows for much more northern stream interaction. This NS interaction is vital to any winter weather chances in the NE US. If there's just a warm, zonal flow across Canada, that will starve the system of any cold air and temperature gradients, leading to 40 degree drizzle. However, as evidenced by the 00z GFS OP, the NS diving down and phasing allows for an impressive ULL with a cold air injection: This is still far in the
  5. I've asked about 10 people and none of them said that they would want to get vaccinated. I already got COVID, so I got vaccinated the hard way, but I really don't think the vaccines will make too much of a difference, as most won't take it. Would be some real sad shit, but that would be the American way.
  6. This is almost kinda anecdotal, but, in my experience, the GEPS almost always seems to overdo ridging in the CONUS. Its base state is slightly higher than normal heights over the mid-latitudes, for whatever reason. This is what it shows for early/mid-December: Whenever the GEPS shows a deep trough like that in the E US, it’s usually pretty legit. That’s a great pattern for us. Also, the 2m temperatures are even more impressive given that polar air is able to drain from Canada effectively even if 500mb doesn’t respond exceptionally well:
  7. I'm starting to get a little more excited for early-mid December. It looks like the Pacific jet will retract significantly, which is the real reason for the retrograding Alaskan LP. Upper level divergence occurs in the left exit region of jet streaks according to QG theory, so once the Pacific jet becomes less extended, the favorable region for ULL development moves with the jet: The reason why I bring this up specifically is because many times, the ensemble guidance will spit out a solution at 500mb (usually blocking) that has no real reason to occur. However, the shif
  8. I've noticed the same sort of pattern that @Analog96 has been bringing up over the last few days. The 12z GFS is a great example of a rather putrid 500mb NH pattern that ends up looking really good at the surface. Also, yes, I know that this at the end of an OP run. This is just to prove a point, not to make an actual forecast. One look at this 500mb pattern and you would immediately think that there's absolutely zero winter weather risk. +NAO/AO/EPO with a massive cutoff stuck in the SW US and a huge ridge poking into Canada. However, you would be wrong in this assessm
  9. Gusts were insane here. Altoona gusted to 55 knots!
  10. I was just about to address this! I am by no means calling for a big winter here, but all of the doom and gloom type posts that I've been seeing are a teensy bit overexaggerated, in my opinion. Modeling in transitional periods is notoriously bad when wavelengths are shortening and gradients are tightening. The biggest change that we've seen so far is a wholesale change of the EPO (and AO!) regions. Over the past few model cycles, there has been the emergence of an anomalous cutoff high north of Alaska, which is teleconnecting with a ridge in Western Canada. A mere two d
  11. also, I've really disliked how many people in my own cohort have completely dismissed the awful crap Biden has said or done. the "racial jungle" comment, the 1994 Crime Bill, the "you ain't black" comment... the list goes on. he's really no better, he's even contributed to the extremely high prison population. I just hate the hypocrisy, and if you bring up that hypocrisy, many don't want to hear it. and obviously, we all know what Trump's done so far, he's exasperated me far too often. the worst part about this is that you'd think that this would lead to at least fundin
  12. this is f*cking insane, but what else is there to expect? this is what happens when you have a party that refuses to provide an inspirational, vibrant candidate to the people. really reminds me of 2016.
  13. Turns out I got COVID last Monday. I initially thought that it was just bad allergies since I hadn't been exposed to anyone that I knew was positive. I had about a day of general tiredness with an elevated temperature (not a fever, though) and a slight cough. However, the worst symptom was a complete lack of smell (and taste, as a result) for about 3-4 days. This was honestly one of the most bizarre things I've had to go through. Eating food and not being able to taste it at all is totally depressing. It doesn't sound that bad compared to a high fever and the other "classic" sympto
  14. Unfortunately, this evolution made total sense given the conditions that Laura moved into. Very warm SSTs with almost zero shear through 300mb is a recipe for RI through landfall, and that's exactly what we're seeing here. Wouldn't be surprising whatsoever to see a Category 5 system before landfall.
  15. Not calling out anyone in particular here, but when you make a claim like “people are over (or under) hyping this event,” please give some evidence for your claim. Doesn’t have to be some university-level analysis or anything like that, just give some reasoning. It gets tiresome to see all the great analysis followed by unsubstantiated “forecasts.” For example, many (including myself) based the tornado threat in particular on soundings that showed highly curved hodographs, indicating anomalous wind shear. This was a well done forecast. Also, learning what to look for in soundings a
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