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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. The 18z GFS seems a bit more realistic than the doom and gloom looks from earlier today / this week with the +EPO lingering. As I stated yesterday, the warm Pacific flow coming up to begin December is due to a Pacific jet extension that is likely due to the +EAMT that develops shortly after Thanksgiving: This +EAMT looks to relax heading into the first week of December, which will allow for the jet to retract significantly: The retraction of the Pacific jet should be one of the primary drivers of the pattern change that I expect to se
  2. As of now, I don't think December is in any trouble. Most of the Pacific issues are likely due to the jet extension thanks to the +EAMT that'll develop next week: I would think that the retraction of the jet later in the run would allow for low pressure to develop in the left exit region of the jet, promoting troughs near the Aleutians and height rises near Alaska, like the GEPS shown later in this post. It looks like the +EAMT might be able to provide some heat fluxes into the stratosphere, as evidenced by the GFS/GEFS: Not saying
  3. all ensembles are strengthening the Greenland blocking considerably as we move forward in time, and the GEFS has come on board as well this is a significant signal for potent blocking. a 250-300m anomaly at 8 - 10 days is nothing to sneeze at, and it makes sense given the overall hemispheric pattern
  4. Looks like the ensembles might be making a nod to the favorable atmospheric conditions as we head towards late November. An Aleutian Low with HL blocking is favored in December given the descending -QBO that'll be in place for this winter, and the ensembles have made a bit of a shift towards more favorable conditions in the EPO/NAO domains for cold injections into the E US. Both the GEFS and EPS have made somewhat significant strides towards ridging all high-latitude domains, specifically the NAO and EPO regions. This allows for much more effective displace
  5. Also, those years in the last composite had this look in November: This 500mb pattern is relatively similar to the one that looks to set up later on this month: There's a bit of disagreement in the NAO region with a east-based -NAO possibly setting up (I would imagine that this would be more auspicious for blocking chances in December), but the PNA/EPO region is a dead ringer. Same Aleutian Low/-EPO/+PNA regime in the West with a deep Eastern trough. There's even a -WPO to boot. Obviously, this doesn't confirm or deny those analogs, b
  6. hey, I got my meteo degree in May! forgot to let you guys know lmao
  7. Hey guys! I figured I'd share some of my thoughts on this upcoming December since we're already a week into November. Can't believe winter is almost here. So, this past October has featured a -AO/-NAO/+PNA teleconnection mix, and we are also in the midst of a descending easterly QBO. It looks certain that we will experience a weak-moderate -ENSO as well. Given these data, I have made composites on Decembers following Octobers with these teleconnections as well as Decembers with a similar zonal wind structure aloft, as well as some composites that factor
  8. I agree with spreading the virus in and of itself, but as far as I know, none of the staff or players are exhibiting any symptoms, which is great. Personally, I don’t have much sympathy for someone that chose not to get vaccinated becoming symptomatic. The main thing I fear is cases rising without hospitalizations/deaths rising and more restrictions being put in place. Would be ass-backwards.
  9. really amazing stats for a “bad” day. May looks like the breakthrough also, got fully vaxxed on Friday, as well as my parents! luckily didn’t experience many adverse side effects.
  10. hey guys! got vaccinated with some friends on Friday in PA and thankfully only experienced some arm soreness and tiredness expected to get the second dose in a few weeks i’m optimistic that we’ll be in a good place by May/June. we’re doing a great job vaccinating the population
  11. light-moderate snow to finish it off great little storm
  12. NAM spawns a legit coastal for tomorrow morning thanks in part to the more favorable jet streak
  13. yeah, the jet streak is more meridional. precip should easily blossom given the upper level forcing
  14. looks like the NAM raises heights a bit over the metro and EPA, which allows the PVA to move a bit more inland, increasing precip that small bit of amplification could make a big difference
  15. alternating between sleet and big rimed flakes, mostly the latter
  16. pinging could be similar to during the blizzard, where the convection timed the snow so heavily that it sounded like sleet
  17. absolutely dumping, +SN with good snow growth heaviest of the day
  18. moderate snow, but starting to see bigger flakes great to see. looks like legit dendrites
  19. perfection tons of UL divergence with a massive moisture feed
  20. +SN here, really coming down radar looks insane, sleet still not much of a concern
  21. radar looks gorgeous, and the mix line is not advancing tons of convective precip, this looks like an overperformer
  22. moderate snow with all surfaces covered. radar looks amazing
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