ThatHurricane

Some beautiful Spring days coming up

After a long stay in phase 2 the MJO seems to be finally moving on. Let's hope for a speedy return to the cold phases.

I might not get 1" of snow but there's one thing I can count on, there will be 1" of salt on the roads

Looking at the models, it seems like the models with more precip also have the storm going more north. So it seems to me like there's a higher ceiling for areas like NW NJ, the Hudson Valley, and Massachusetts than NYC, LI, and Eastern New Jersey. I'd be happy with any snow though

Do you think the ~60 degree temperatures on Tuesday, or the rain, will decrease snow accumulations significantly on Wednesday? It seems to me like it would have a negative impact.

Here's snow totals at hour 72 (when it's done for everyone except for Suffolk County and Eastern New England)

Looking good at hour 66

Drizzling rain in upper manhattan

The 12z run was more favorable for those in NYC or just north and west. There was a shift south, but it didn't help everywhere.

There's a mix of 00z and 06z in there. Like 00z, the precipitation is coming back to NYC, but it isn't close to as strong as it was in the 00z run.

On the 12z NAM at hour 51: The ULL is in a similar place to the 06z run, but the coastal low is slightly South, and the precip shield looks a little more favorable.

Honestly I’d be happy with 3 inches (Upper Manhattan). Do you think there will be a cutoff around the Driscoll Bridge with this storm?

We can watch the temperatures over the next 24 hours to see if they are above or below predicted numbers. In New York the forecast low is 32. Saturday’s high is forecast to be 44. We will see how low it goes.

At 06z Monday, compared with the last GFS run: The rain/snow line has moved from southern VT to MA/CT line. It’s progress.

The low pressure approaching this storm is just now making it onto North America. It might be sampled better soon, which could result in model changes.