ThatHurricane

Here are some temperatures outputted by the latest versions of these models at 12z tomorrow (from tropical tidbits): HRRR: 3F NAM 3km: 3F NAM 12km: 5F RGEM: 5F GFS: 10F FV3: 4F CMC: 10F ICON: 1F Per weather.us: ECMWF: 4F

This storm is starting to remind me of March 2017 here. During that storm originally we thought we would get lots of snow here, and then we thought we would get rain, but we ended up getting lots of sleet. I remember it being rain in JFK but near Central Park it just kept sleeting instead. Where I am I think we got 7-9 inches of snow and 2-3 inches of sleet.

They did this with the last storm too. When the storm hitting DC now was 156 hours out (06z 1/7/19), the GFS showed a coastal hugger with rain in and south of NYC and only snow to the north. It also showed the storm going more up the coast. It adjusted quickly though and just 24 hours later in the 06z 1/8/19 run it showed the storm mainly impacting Virginia, close to what actually happened. If we see this trend on this storm as well it will be good for us

This would be very cool and probably my coldest temperature ever felt (I would be very excited) but I feel like the FV3 exaggerates cold temperatures. Around Christmas, they had cold waves around 10 degrees in NYC for last week, which didn’t happen. Does anyone know why this would happen on the FV3?

I've been looking at the SREFS and NAM a bit and it looks like the coastal low is getting stronger on model runs. The NAM went from showing the coastal low go straight out to sea at the 0z runs to sticking around for a while and even going a bit north on the 12z runs. The overrunning is not strengthening though which is why the northern extent of the snow went a little south. It could go north again though if these trends continue.

To add on to my last post, here are some pictures of QPF for NYC and DC. Very big difference for NYC but even in DC, the QPF has more than doubled from the 15Z run yesterday to the 9Z run today.

The SREFs also have about 6 inches for Philadelphia, with about 10.5 inches for DC. For some reason they think that this storm will have a lot more moisture than other models.

The FV3 has about 0.2" QPF in NYC, with about 0.5" QPF in DC, which is similar to the last run. However, it generally seems to be getting drier over the east coast. This is probably because there is more confluence as we have lost the trough west of the storm. I might be wrong though

The 18Z GEFS average location of low pressures for 1/14 appears ever so slightly north of 12Z, and a little stronger (although the strength is probably due to more confidence, not the strength of the lows).

The 18Z FV3 model has about 0.75" to 1" precipitation falling around NYC. The rain/snow line gets very close to the city though, with it reaching Monmouth county. The low pressure is not very deep, but there is a strong high to the north.