OceanSnow

This is encouraging as well.

@Analog96 Do you believe now that we are firmly into October and seeing this with the NAO , that it begins to take on possibly new significance in terms of a winter clue? I know it means nothings in the summer months whether the NAO is negative but this is interesting to me .

This winter the QBO I have read is more so a positive factor , versus last year. Also, issues last winter with the QBO and the SSWE threw multiple monkey wrenches into the winter forecasts. Fast Pac jet, lack of ocean - atmospheric coupling, and the basin wide warmth of the Pac did not promote the response we wanted here in the East, and yes, we had Nina looks more so than Nino. The annoying High pressure north of Hawaii seemed to pump up the Se ridge. Just not pretty. There was pathetic AAM last winter and that continues today, HM posted on that recently. I think November may be a great indicator month for the heart of winter. If we have an active month and not too warm we might have a decent period of winter weather this year. Hopefully some of the players become clearer in the next 6 weeks . Hard to imagine a early start to winter this year, but some very good pros and mets have alluded to just that. I look forward to Isotherm's forecast, as I do every year.

What at great post and balances well with other insights on this thread. Very thought provoking . Quick question - wasn't last winter also the case where this was similar , that we dealt with low angular momentum, more Nina like than Nino-ish ? Lastly I hear some references to the winter of 95-96 at least in the sense of the descending QBO. I thought that winter was more so Nina like along with a very favorable QBO phase and progression. So, the question than begs is it possible to have an outcome such as that year in a low budget AAM winter? Thanks again !

Great post ! Is it true the lag can be 2 to 3 years from the lowest solar min. to the effect on the NAO domain ? I thought I ready a research report on that.

Wonder if there are studies or research on the present QBO phase and forecast descent and how it plays out when the backdrop is a solar min. I believe in 1995 we were head towards a solar min but not close yet. So, maybe there is some type of association.

Sorry, but I can not put any faith in the Euro and the seasonal NAO call. Granted Simon is focusing on the other side of the pond, but after last winter and the complexity of the NAO domain in seasonal forecasting it is hard to give it much weight at this time. However, I look forward to hearing Isotherm's thoughts down the road regarding this winter's NAO. I know he has had success with forecasting the average NAO tendency of the winter NAO.

With the way the QBO might want to move and some other favorable Pac factors maybe we cash in. Not sure the impact of the low solar min. ,although I heard from some mets it is a positive factor.

Also, was not last winter more so a basin wide weak pathetic Nino. It truly lacked the focused anomaly where it counted the most. It also lacked ocean and atmospheric coupling. This set up looks like it has Modoki characteristics . What are your thoughts?

@Analog96 Would you concur that seeing these episodes of a - NAO are a good sign for the winter, especially now as we are into October ?

That was - EPO driven cold I believe. Some mets/pros are calling for a multi-week period of rather cold conditions for the East Coast during the winter . I know HM posted on this very subject not long ago on his feed.

@Snowy Hibbo At what point does the continuation of the - NAO have any use for inclusion into a winter seasonal forecast, for the upcoming winter. Some mets I read mentioned there is no correlation to warm months with a -NAO, such as in July, August and September, and to the ensuing winter's NAO tendency. I wonder at what point does that change? Certainly some have pointed out the early season cold pool as an indicator of a overall averaged -NAO during the upcoming winter months. Some have pointed out that the cooling of the high latitude above the tropics will lead to a lower frequency and hence more likely to a - NAO in the winter months. Also read that the QBO has stalled recently, wondering the impact of this on the winter NAO phase as well. But, it could very well decline in October, November and December I would love to hear anyone's thoughts on this.

Wish we had that long stretch of -SOI in November all of December , maybe the winter outcome snow wise would have been better. any thoughts about the summer. DonS. thinks maybe warmer than normal, what do you think ? Does the Pac hold any significant influence for the summer ?

Hey Don, hope you are well, thanks for these updates ! Question, do you have any feelings/insights about the summer yet? Normal, hot, below normal temps ? any ideas ? Thanks !!

You said that three weeks ago, and we have a bomb cyclone and Blizzard warnings from Denver and extending far to the NE today. Lucky 13 . Denver conditions going downhill quickly. Explosive snow intensity developing now.