OceanSnow

Tom, if I may ask a question, in the maps you posted from the Euro which shows the deep dive in the NAO and the AO is that a reflection of things working in tandem now per your update earlier today or is it some function of the downwelling of the SSWE. I believe you stated we were not getting the benefits due to issues in the Maritime Continent but as that improves we should see improvement in HL blocking, ( ie. the -AO and -NAO and I imagine the -EPO as well. ) Which the weeklies so vividly show. Thanks Lastly, as I am sure you are aware I read today this SSWE is the third longest based on wind reversals. I believe first and second place were 2009 and 1987. Maybe this means we have a longer lag effect or at the least no strong rapid recovery of the SPV? Thanks again.

Awesome, sounds like a fun 6 weeks to track. Amazing how they mirror your update ! And, how the Pac looks Nino ish .

The longterm story is intact for favorable winter threats, but it seems we have a few days to get by the jump in the MJO to phases 4 and 5. Maybe this has altered the desired sequence because we are looking at rain today formany areas , and maybe even later in the week. As the MJO goes into the COD things turn better. Any feedback on this much appreciated. More or less David's thoughts ( and many others ) in the Teleconnection thread make perfect sense , we will get there. However, at times, this has been a frustrating winter due to the Pacific Jet and the MJO .

What we are seeing with the many individual group members of the EPS mostly offshore at hour 216, may I ask how they get there please? For example, is the possible threat a Miller B , or A, hybrid form. Also when Davis Straights blocking becomes extreme is that when you can get loops and stalls or is that from something esle, like the 50/50 ? With the blocking on the Euro at Day 10, and continuing, I expect some incredible possibilites.

Allsnow are the temps so cold to the West of the Coastal Plain a function of the cold air still moving in at this time, or does snow cover have anything to do about it. I mean look at central VA. wow

Exactly, and here at day 9 we are only beginning to see the better cold and snow pattern on the Euro. Imagine the EPS might shed some light on Day 9 later. There should be multiple threats at the every end of Jan and the first first of Feb.

Looks like this could evolve into a classic Miller A pattern, due to the blocking, is that correct ?

Well if David's thoughts are correct in the Teleconnection thread along with others, such as Isotherm's thoughts, things should line up for prolonged HL blocking in the favored locations, late month and in Feb. Based on David's latest update maybe a very favorable pattern lasts a while. Would not surprise me to see it go into March. Maybe tonight's weeklies provide more concensus.

Seems like the Euro is speeding up the -NAO. Expect some shifts next week as this may be underestimated .

Thanks ! I appreciate your feedback. I trust the GEFS and the EPS, weeklies, etc., more than the GFS at 384 hours. A trend from the GFS does not it is correct.

ThE GFS long range is changing in the NAO domain. I have seen this the last several runs. The Pac is causing issues with blocking and the signal for a negative NAO is decreasing. We all know the issues the Pac has caused already MJO-wise, etc. I am aware the GEFS and the Euro weeklies are keen on dual blocking, but just stating this trend. Had this not happened before I would not even consider the GFS.

Great post ! Just a quick question. Do you think we enter a dry time period due to extreme blocking, or do you feel there will be storm oppurtunities? I am asking because there has been some talk that with extreme blocking storms would be surpressed to the lower 48.

I read observations from various strat guys on the web it was the Euro that did best in forecasting the reversal and the split. It appears to have a good handle on things to me. Seems from a forecasting view only, the GEFS does well picking up on high lattitiude pattern changes, just as well as the Euro. As for the Euro being fast, not sure. Certainly the progression of the Euro/ EPS to the weeklies matches Isotherm's thoughts on the increased blocking and favorable sync in the atmosphere later this month and in Feb., and maybe into March. This morning I see more indications of downward propagation from Judah Cohen thisd morning where he states the GFS is getting more emphatic about downward propagation.

Thanks, we are still at or near record wind reversal at 10 hPa 60N , today -4.2, the record is - 4.7 from 2013. Almost 15 days at or near interim records. Strat vortex status currently : The strat. vortex is currently weaker than ERA interim average and is forecasted to remain weaker than average (according to EPS-mean) 0 of 21 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2019-01-29 06:00:00) The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -4.2 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -4.7 m/s 2013 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 63.1 m/s 1981

Would that mean since the SSWE is still progressing, winds still reversed, and downwelling forecasted that the blocking may be long lasting ?