OceanSnow

Eric, great post ! Can you comment at all about Paul Roundy's post where he mentions the convective signal can maintain itself even after sea surface temperature pattern reverses in January and February? If Paul is correct, does this "delay" only effect the West Pac forcing or will it effect the NOA domain's receptive ability to take on a more negative phase? Or, maybe your research does not show this delay.

I believe Tom would prefer it drop faster. But , maybe it will during this month.

You think this is related to the somewhat new trends in the movement of the vortex as mentioned today by BAMMWX? Seems the displacement and elongation favors our region. I can post the link if needed, but I believe you know what I am referring to .

I heard it dropped to near 5.09

Thanks for your insights, much appreciated. . HM also believes the NAO domain will be conducive at times moving forward. He has posted his thoughts on that topic this morning via his feed.

Eric, does this event influence at all the likely progression you were looking for in early to mid January when the Pac was expected to become more favorable, along with improvements in tropical forcing and the MJO progression ?

That release is from November 27 th , since then BAMMWX has stated warmer Nino influences after the first week of December. But regardless, a cold December in the East looks unlikely at this time, unless we run huge negatives later in the month. I do see that is a week 3 and 4 map above, but to me they are slowly changing their tune. This was recently posted:

What is your source please ? Do you have a link? Thanks

Wonder the progression from there? Do we lose the favorable HL look as Isotherm and Tamara state, or is this model run incorrect? I value the insights form everyone here, but this is so complex, however, going with a Nino December climo in the East one can simply state we warm and then turn colder in early Jan. The fascinating part is maybe the strat does help us later, and there is coupling and our sensible weather is effected in mid Jan perhaps. Some semblance to the 1960s maybe in some form of fashion later Jan .

I thought that was all bad news .

According to Webb it might take the entire month of December to resolve the MJO to our favor. Will be interesting to witness the eventual outcome, as we have a bit of a battle going on between the various models and the MJO progression. This warm up and reshuffle was not unexpected and now we wait for the eventual flip again.

So, that is the potential Canadian warming ( or one option ) Isotherm was talking about. Very visual indeed from the Euro. It does fit the time frame for a Canadian warming.

You are correct, sometimes it raises the bar for potential cold and snow. I guess just gun shy from last year when the zonal winds did reverse for weeks on end and there was no real benefit here at all. Blame it on the QBO and the MJO interactions possibly. It is possible if we have some type on SSW it would help us early next year, but hard to say for sure. That speculation is best left for the strat experts here.

Yes, same here, after Isotherm's post yesterday about the eventual implications of a SSWE and the ability to couple and then the questions about the eventual impacts it makes you worry if one were to really happen what would be the sensible weather consequences.. Heck , it could effect across the pond or Siberia, who knows. After last year I agree, it could mess things up. As Isotherm stated it could even interfere with existing blocking regime.

This is impressive for the dataset