OceanSnow

Wonder how your seasonal forecast will verify in the end. Since the turn around from the original call of a cold winter with ample snow to a revised warmer forecast for mid Jan to early March , Bamwx is looking good, DT is looking stellar. The EPO never cooperated, and the NAM state is pathetic. No signs of any improvement overall regarding cold risks. The resilient vortex since the coupling in later December has been a huge driver along with the central Pac ridging and WAR. Not to mention the new GFS should never have been released .

You have your above and below reversed. An AO above + 3 SD or higher is not good at all for colder weather prospects in the Mid Atlantic. Not to mention above +5 SD or higher. It can work later in the season but not now.

I really think, as the stats show, it is more important to have a favorable NAM state. The MJO wears thin. It is important to a degree, but the NAM state really impacts my area and your area as well. . The lack of a + PNA , and a - AO along with a strong vortex are the killers. Maybe in March there is a window.

At least when you enter this period , Feb 6 th and beyond he cold air source becomes more reliable, this winter has lacked true cold air masses at our latitude and even much further North for that matter. Had we had typical Jan cold and not stale Pac puke air many storms might have been more white than wet. To buck the seasonal trends so far, and the poor back ground state, we will need a lot more than the GFS to excite most. But, as you mentioned, it is a start and makes sense as we enter a , somewhat, more favorable period.

By this time folks should understand that the models are rather incapable of getting the pattern right more than 10 days ahead. The EPS has had issues with the projection and forecast accuracy within the PNA domain, not to mention the issues with the EPO domain as well. The continuous lack of arctic air and the multiple NW or cutter systems has plagued the Mid Atlantic area. Until the NAM state changes towards a more conducive look that is sustainable I would be very skeptical about any cold arriving, let alone snow opportunities, . Your posts Don are always very illuminating and interesting.

Seems the weakening of the + IOD has stalled, but does it really even matter as it is below the threshold of a + IOD. Maybe it is the residual effects? 20191216,20191222,0.56 20191223,20191229,0.31 20191230,20200105,0.17 20200106,20200112,0.34

Hopefully, we get a better overall set-up if we go to the more traditional Nino-ish state in mid Feb through mid March. I have some hope that we will get some opportunities based on Snowy's post and Tom's recent comments later in the winter, after Feb 15 th.

Do you feel the real potential is after the 25th due to a delayed lagged MJO composite effect? For example, the time period near the 23 rd to the 25th does not seem as exciting as it was a couple days ago.

Good point. EPS is not always correct. Also having the Scand ridge getting stronger and the Se ridge weakening is great but unless we see significant changes in the Pac from the same old issues it is more of the same. We also need to change the NAM state as well.

Seasonal models might be correct at the end of the day with the poor blocking, simply zonal and boring. The timelines at the moment are matching Tom's, Tamara and Snowy's ideas looking over the next month. As for Feb too hard to say at the moment, however, I believe Webb and Anthony have a point that things improve later. Just taking longer than expected/

Don, do you personally have a reason, or reasons, for the strengthening PV? It appears the evolution of it combined with a lack of weakening is following Isotherm's time line. I have read many possible reasons behind it including Snowy's recent great post and Tom's thoughts as well. The high latitude look is somewhat similar to what the seasonal models were offering months ago. We have had PV elongations and disruptions and zonal winds have declined from time to time, but the core has remained resilient it seems. The precursor patterns to SSW have been questionable in outome. And I agree with Tom that any official SSW event this winter is a lower probability.

Don, why do know when the CFS is in its wheelhouse, in terms of higher verification? I heard from others, statistically, it is from the last few days of the current month for the next month. If so, the value of it must be taken into account. The recent flip is similar to last November at this time. I place no faith in it for use in long range forecasts, although others may use it for trends.

What I am saying is my area did not share in the snowfall further North. I also don't understand your reply to my post. My post is not negative at all about future snow prospects. Sorry, I am not sure how you got that out of it. My reference to 1995 in part was even mentioned by Donald S in his previous post above and also here : " In contrast, the 1995 analog tossed around on Twitter for December will almost certainly wind up having been far off the mark "

Your weather insights are always based on reality Don. There are many folks out there on social media attempting to play the hot hand, and trying to win over either clients, subscribers or grow a following. ( I will not name names, you know who I mean ). As for December, temps have more seasonal versus some past Decembers this decade up to this point. I always expected a typical warm up post 12/20. That has been a persistent pattern the last several years. The season so far is nothing like 02-03 or 95-96. Also, it should have been clear that a SSWE was not in the cards for this month, maybe not even this winter. Again, folks playing the data on social media and carefully choosing what they post to get across the message they want to deliver. However, in the end, this does not mean we do not enter a period a winter cold and snow in the weeks ahead.

According to some mets things are expected to continue to improve from here ( maybe ) Regardless, even if this is all we get I am surprised considering some called for a very warm end to December and early Jan period.