OceanSnow

You said that three weeks ago, and we have a bomb cyclone and Blizzard warnings from Denver and extending far to the NE today. Lucky 13 . Denver conditions going downhill quickly. Explosive snow intensity developing now.

Tom, will be interesting to see whether next year marks the true turning point to a more -NAO regime. For all the mets and pros that post on the NAO I have yet to see a true trigger or manner to forecast a seasonal NAO , even if only by tendency alone, versus any real + or - deviation . Some imply the tri-pole, others to the Pac associateion, others to ozone and volcanoes , some postulate that it is based on solar and wind cycles along with the QBO directional trends past December 1st. I have heard many theories, but no one seems to know for sure. Seems this year many -NAO short intervals, ( or periods that functioned as a -NAO but were not true -NAO in reality ) were had simply from Atlantic bombing systems and wave breaking.

Are you happy with BloomSky? It looks great ! Not cheap but worthwhile I guess.

Good, because some fear a March 1, 1980 repeat with Norfolk getting 24 inches of snow. That is the top analog. I would think the potential could end up becoming a very deep Eastern Seaboard cyclone.

This is rather optimistic coming from you ! I like more snow please. I followed you starting many years ago on Wright Weather, phew I am getting old ! Enjoy your updates !

Yes that is true, but my concern is the EPS seems to reveal we enter a much colder period, but a dry one. We will have to see how things work out. I can't think really recall since the end of December too many dry periods though. With the continued -SOI and a lag as well, I am not so sure it will be as dry as the EPS implies.

Does the continued great look to the -SOI and this morning's better CPC ensembles indicating a dive in the AO lend extra confidence to your call/progression ? Thanks!

You do not see any lags in phase 8 ? You see it progressing to phase 1 and 2 ? In your opinion is the CFS the best tool for the MJO and then the Euro? Thanks

Is the follow up system the one to watch near the Western Plains? ( for Feb 20th ) Since there have been mostly three outcomes this winter....... cutter, surpressed or coastal hugger. Would that next system possibly just slide by to the South.

One theory from a met in New England was that the distribution of STTs over the West Pac was the reason , meaning the ElNino was more of a basin wide event. Because of this it effected the gradient in the Pac with storm tracks, ie, the Pac jet on roids ( never get a lasting West Coast ridge ) and the lack of a concentrated SST anomaly caused a lack of forcing in the areas where most seaonal forecasts called for it . ( outcome the MJO in the wrong phase ) Enter the hadley cell and SSWE caused a further distruption amongst all things. ( this last part is more speculative, but the two points above I really believe in) Many seasonal forecasters stated a SSWE was NOT needed this winter to have a cold and snowy outcome. Lastly, another element was the early nature of the SSWE coinciding with the QBO, where it was at that time , may have a part too. Tom mentioned this in a previous update. I look forward to post winter wrap ups and we can learn from this one.

Yeah, but did the SSWE cause the ramp up of the MJO in the warmer phases? No one realy knows. It seems to have messed up what was looking like a decent pattern setting up in November. I imagine there are arguments that go both ways on this front. The other issue is the pathetic Nino and you could go on and on. There are several players that have derailed both the human and computer seasonal forecasts this year. This year had the best concensus for a decent winter in about 8 years. JMA. UkMet, Euro, weeklies cloer in , etc. Something messed it up, or a domino effect if you will.

If anything, I thought the severe -EPO was a lock based on the improving Pac and other factors. Where as the - NAO is like a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Not sure the models are even half done resolving the upcoming changes taking place, certainly a complex set of events unfolding the next 7 days.

After this period will the SOI resume its negative decline ? The pressure pattern out in the West Pac in 5 to 10 days would appear it supports a rather deep dive back down to negative values for a while. Can you please clarify if that is true. Lastly, your update from a three weeks ago seems to be doing well. The progression and the MT , forcing and MJO all seem to be on your time table and working togther. Looking forward to another update. Much appreciated as always!

John, great write-up ! if time permits I have two questions. Do you place more value in the CFS when it comes to the progression of the MJO and accuracy? I believe Isotherm mentioned a while back it seems to excell in this area. Lastly, is the Northern Mid Atlantic still in play for potential winter events, if the blocking meets or even exceeds your present thoughts ? In the set up you describe you mention Northern NJ and NE wards. As the pattern evolves would that not put areas further to the South in play as well ? Thanks

Wonder if next year folks remember how poorly the seasonal models have done. Unless they score a win late, even then, does not make up for the group think computer modeling that showed the best pattern since 2009 -10 winter. I wish for a super Nino next time at least if it weakens we get moderate. HM made some post in passing about comparing winters and brought up volcanoes and the impact they had. I am still waiting for someone to touch on that link and it has weight beyond just mentioning the weak Nino and the SSWE.