OceanSnow

Yep, locks up all the cold in NW Canada. The Pacific screws us again. A more cooperative Pac is essential, if the trends are correct, it is over if that cold air source is eliminated. Ha, never started really. I don't care about the - NAO I like to see some really cold air in the Conus. Digital snow maps with little snow may end being correct.

Ok, so no snow. Gotcha

Do you still feel the best potential is after the 26th?

Compared to the Euro that hurts.

Yes here you go awesome tools here https://simonleewx.com/gefs-35-day-10-hpa-60n-u/

Have you noticed the trend the last few days is to keep the vortex weaker longer. Here the updated 35 day GEFS has zero members with a strong vortex, was 9 members a few days ago.

For those in the enhanced colder boundary zone this over running set-up could yield several snow on snow events, unheard of for years in the Northern mid Atlantic.

The cycling though the evolution of the may have implications for March

Paul has been really good with this. Basically I would not hold out any hope on a coherent favorable MJO signal for the East. However cold may slide East in time. Certainly not severe cold by any means. But, hopefully cold enough for a window near the end of the month.

A rather dramatic change the last couple days in that NAM plot. Going towards the ERA5 mean in the GEFS 35 day run. Still too early to make assumptions. Also, the - AO and - NAO have failed to deliver a SECS to the Mid Atlantic once they set in , which may indicate at this time the Pac is the driver.

Yep , there was a lot of hype. Latest NAM states look to go positive. Vortex also looking to get better organized late month on stratobserve.

Thermals continue to be an issue going forward. Temps are hideous for the Mid Atlantic. Real cold seems to wait till late month.

Agree, also as you know the appearance of ridging in the East and the -NAO simply acts as an extension of the WAR . A linkage of heights off the East Coast. Not good at all.

Too many SWs zipping around, super blocked up pattern but doing nothing for us. Cutter risks continue and the evident lack of cold air. It is not a surprise, most Nina's tend not to work out well - at least further down towards Philly. And modeling flips to non events has been a repeating theme the last three winters. Even digital snow is a blank through the next 10 days.