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blizzardof96

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  1. blizzardof96

    [Eastern US] Dec. 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Looking back a bit to gain some perspective. In chronological order: 1) -ve mountain torque in place at beginning of November 2) +AAM tendency ~35N through late november (circled in blue) 3)Ridges dominate NA (through mid latitudes) in December with MJO over IO/E HEM Now: 4)Positive MT and MJO in phases 6--7 5)Beginning of southward momentum transport ~35N (circled), increasing tropical +AAM, increasing global +AAM Future(Mid Jan onwards) 6) -EPO, +global AAM, troughiness dominates?
  2. blizzardof96

    [Eastern US] Dec. 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Besides playing a role in the SSW, the +EAMT spike and strong MJO pulse are helping increase +AAM/westerly momentum between 30S--30N. This is visible on the relative AAM tendency charts. There is also -AAM tendency north of 30N which is opposite of what we saw in mid-late november. What usually follows is a pattern change with more troughiness in the mid-latitudes. It will take some time but things seem to be on track ATM for a pattern shift.
  3. blizzardof96

    [Eastern US] Dec. 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    EAMT hits highest peak so far this cold season. 2 standard deviations above normal.
  4. blizzardof96

    [Eastern US] Dec. 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    You can see the downwelling atmospheric Kelvin Wave propagating just out in front of the MJO wave. What this may do is destructively interfere with rising motion from the MJO in phases 6/7 on the RMM plots. So the MJO wave is still there but amplitude decreases on RMM. Another possibility is that the wave dies off... that seems unlikely if you loop the map below on Mike Ventrices site.
  5. blizzardof96

    [Eastern US] Dec. 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Thanks guys. It looks like the statistical MJO models have all bases covered. Going to the GEFS or ECM won't provide much help at the moment either. It'll be a tough time for the long range models until they resolve this wave.
  6. blizzardof96

    [Eastern US] Dec. 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Hey Guys. Just came across this forum a few days ago... hoping to contribute from time to time in the future! I'm Severe Weather Blog on twitter under the same handle(@blizzardof96). Cheers.
  7. blizzardof96

    blizzardof96

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