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DemonDeacons

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  1. Metro Boston blew past our projected highs today by 5+ degrees. Way warmer day/afternoon/evening - guessing we start warmer than projected tomorrow morning. Up here I feel like (Overall) CAD is stubborn when it’s really rooted in for the prior few day/days. This situation I’m less confident - especially in eastern Mass.
  2. There’s a possible sub-950 low spinning in the Bering Sea which spits out the Tuesday energy into the PNW - I’m guessing this (Energy cycling out of a major Alaskan storm) is not any models forte and so what and when hits the west coast will probably tell us a lot.
  3. It’s gonna be close. Some of the earlier models today had a lot of mixing into Metrowest and the big snows 495 and west. Others have a foot all the way into downtown. There’s also the tertiary low that’s supposed to develop East of the Caoe and into Maine on the backend of the storm. See @jacksillin tweets. I’m guessing greater Boston is going to be a very nuanced map. Not surprising to see 6” in a place like Watertown and then 14” in Framingham 10 miles away.
  4. Metro Boston peeps - 18z GFS lining up w Canadian thinking quicker changeover and higher totals out 495 and west
  5. For my Boston brethren - initial storm on Euro shows ~6”. Per @Jack Sillin, it’s that third wave and LP that comes up east of cape cod and into gulf of Maine that drops an extended 2-4” on Eastern Mass. Thus equating to the 10-12”. This jives with the accumulation time stamps on pivotal as well
  6. Can I get some expert thoughts on Metro Boston (West of city). I’m seeing everything from 3-10” now (Canadian to Euro) - as opposed to 12”+. Which is fine with me - I don’t care much either way - just trying to get a sense of what we are looking at here. Much obliged
  7. Am I correct in reading that metro Boston is going lower due to changeover early on GFS?
  8. I see the coastal front gets fairly north and west into Massachusetts on EPS. Changing over for all of greater Boston - anyone have an opinion here? We think that’s possible and/or likely ? I’d love it personally because it caps my high end (cuz I like snow and weather but would rather not be on a ladder chipping out ice dams).
  9. Tomorrow 12z models will be interesting as the storm will pop up in the Lee of the Rockies. Interesting to see how that light shift models.
  10. Will confluence affect northern extent and potentially tamp down totals in SNE / Boston? I know this is sacrilege here, but I'd rather not dig out from 18" (me personally) - I always think 6-12" is the good sweet spot where I don't have to worry about shoveling my roof and sh&t like that.
  11. It will be interesting to see how/when/where all that WC energy migrates across the Sierra, Great Basin, and Central Rockies
  12. Yes! All this energy hits the WC, slams into the Sierras (80-100" of snow along the entire Sierra crest), then has to skip over the great basin and Central Rockies before aggregating on the lee side...so yeah, a ways to go
  13. I’ll play. There’s a lot of confidence here on the pattern - but I’d ask everyone to think “why might I be wrong?” I’ve read this board over the last three years and with good interest. My technical background is another field - but one that also requires probabilistic thinking. I’d be interested to hear more of what the pros think the soft parts in their arguments are. And if not, that’s cool too.
  14. “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future!” -Neils Bohr
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