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About Nj2va

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    Arlington, VA/McHenry, MD (2800’)

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  1. Wow, it pays to be on the colder side of the storm! Enjoy the snow.
  2. I’m not sure of climo/model bias up north but at least here in the Mid-Atlantic, CAD events are always undermodeled too (in terms of how long the frozen precip lasts). Models are way too fast in the LR in getting rid of the cold.
  3. Secondary roads and sidewalks in N. Arlington caving. One of the more impressive flips from rain to snow I can remember in these marginal setups.
  4. SN+ with huge dendrites now in Arlington. Flipped to all snow about 30 minutes ago. Looks like a snowglobe!
  5. Mesoscale Discussion 0006 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2020 Areas affected...Parts of northern Virginia...central Maryland and south central Pennsylvania Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071729Z - 071930Z SUMMARY...A 1 to 3 hour period of snow, perhaps occasionally including rates in excess of 1 inch per hour, will impact areas near and west through north of the District of Columbia through 2-4 PM EST. DISCUSSION...Lower/mid tropospheric warm advection ahead of a vigorous short wave trough is contributing to an area of strong lift now beginning to spread east-northeast of the Blue Ridge. Particularly across northern Virginia, central Maryland and adjacent portions of south central Pennsylvania, lift is becoming maximized in the 700-500 mb layer, where forecast soundings indicate temperature and moisture profiles are becoming conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. Although near surface profiles are initially relatively dry and warm across and northwest of the Washington D.C. metropolitan area, evaporative cooling/melting within an initial burst of heavy snow should cool and saturate this environment sufficiently to allow for a period of accumulating snow. Aided by precipitable water on the order of .4 to .5 inches, this may include snow rates of 1/2 to 1 inch+ per hour, before stronger mid-level ascent spreads east-northeast of the D.C. area. Although this lift may overspread the Baltimore and Philadelphia metropolitan areas later this afternoon, an initially warmer boundary layer (surface temperatures now in the lower/mid 40s) across these areas seem likely to result in decreasing potential for accumulating snow. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...
  6. Precip should be breaking out inside the Beltway soon. Light snow reports as far east as Fairfax now.
  7. Another great run for the Mid-Atlantic on the NAM. Hagerstown should do well. I’ll be thrilled if we can hit 2” in the inner DC suburbs of VA and 18z Euro and 00z NAM says that’s a go. 0.5” QPF for DC, aligns well with the 18z Euro. The old E/E rule
  8. No offense but it’d be a cold day in hell before I trust the SREFs over other models.
  9. Wow, DC at 0.45" QPF on the 18z Euro and a hair colder. Verbatim 2-4" on Kuchera & snow depth maps in the DC area.
  10. NAM went bonkers over VA/DC/MD...obviously temps will be dicey along 95 but DPs will be in the upper 20s at onset, cold is just above the surface, and QPF has been steadily increasing so it'll be a nice "thump". Keeping my expectations at 1" or so in my backyard with potential for 2" if things continue breaking right. 2-3" for the favored spots west of 95.
  11. that was my first winter of tracking storms. Certainly picked a good one to start with.
  12. Yep, if QPF was a bit higher, we could make up for the borderline surface-925. We either need the models to tick colder or QPF to bump up....heck, I’d take both.
  13. Probably a once in a lifetime type winter for the DC area/Mid-Atlantic...just incredible. A few days before the first February storm, we got an 8” storm that 48 hours before first flakes, was supposed to hit Richmond/Central VA then models kept bumping north. I’ll never forget the local stations here talking about February Storm #2 as the first storm was just finishing up.
  14. It’s too bad that basically from 925 to the surface, temps are iffy or else I’d be feeling better at seeing an 1” from this.
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