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Jack Frost

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About Jack Frost

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    Annandale, NJ

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  1. Not one plowable event for the entire winter = F
  2. My prediction: Starting tomorrow - March 1 - March 31 - the frequency of new virus subjects begins to levels off. General recognition / awareness is that this is not the plaque but rather a variant of the flu - maybe a little worse maybe not. April - the virus fades out of the news. May - Corona what? Just my guess / perspective but the hysteria is staring to get boring...
  3. Great pictures Don! Depressing and uplifting at the same time....
  4. When we use the word "nature" we might as well use the word "balance". So are the amazingly strong vortex and the ultra positive AO merely evidence of "balance" doing what it does best and saying "not so fast" to all of those who proclaimed for the last several years the end forever of arctic sea ice? I don't know but it would be interesting to see LR forecasts include an analysis of how the earth's tendency to balance might impact winter forecasts. In hindsight, a LR forecast that hypothesized that arctic sea ice was due to make a comeback and that a strong polar vortex / super positive AO were a means to that end certainly would have had a leg up on this winter.
  5. Worse than banter - the Global Warming, er, we mean Climate Change, hey wait, after this winter, Global Warming thread. Yawn....
  6. Those who deny that the earth is constantly in a state of flux to achieve balance do so at their peril. That is the essence of weather and climate.
  7. Awesome post and really highlights how much goes into a deterministic forecast and really how much can go wrong - or sometimes right. But talk about "the details matter" and how many details are just about impossible to nail down at range. Kudos for the effort!
  8. Awesome map. Thank you MJOP8. Regardless of what occurs this weekend, I'm optimistic about the rest of winter given the extensive 33andrain analysis from true weather experts. if this is going to be another back end winter we're knocking at the door of the beginning of the back end and it looks like there may be more than one Jeb Walk in our collective future!
  9. Thanks. And I promise not to post about BAM - at least for tonight....
  10. Spot on. The current state of the science only allows - at this point - assessment of the big picture. That big picture analysis of the players on the field in the long range is all we can ask for until the pieces of the puzzle come more into focus. That said. how much for Philly?
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