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About colonel_kurtz

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    Lower Makefield Twp, PA

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  1. Birx: modeling data weighted heavily with results from NY / NJ, potential to improve upon that 100,000 death projection. Encouraging cumulative case #'s from all other states especially CA & WA. #hope
  2. Over 76,000 medical personnel have volunteered to work in NY. Puts any of our anxiety into perspective. God bless those wonderful individuals.
  3. On the other side of the Delaware some reasons for optimism. Bucks County report yesterday from the Dept of Health: https://covid19-bucksgis.hub.arcgis.com/ After a one-day lull, COVID-19 cases shot up again today in Bucks County, posting by far the largest spike since the pandemic arrived here. Fifty-three more people tested positive for the virus today, bringing the county’s total cases to 181. Dr. David Damsker, director of the county’s health department, attributed the large increase to a multi-day backlog of results coming in late today from expanded testing sites. Larger sites, he said, have been testing several hundred people per day. “It doubles our largest increase to date,” Damsker said, adding that he remains encouraged that community spread continues to diminish. Asked about the effect of social distancing measures, Damsker said, “Soon, if not this weekend then early next week … we should not be seeing community spread if everyone is staying in their homes. We shouldn’t be seeing cases where we can’t identify the source.” PA modeling projections: https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-coronavirus-modeling-projections-hospitals-estimates-20200327.html https://covidactnow.org/state/PA "In Pennsylvania, the model gives a grim forecast of what sick people and health-care workers could face in the coming weeks. If no actions to restrict movement or encourage social distancing were put into place, upward of 255,000 people in the state could die. But that’s an unlikely scenario. Actions taken by Wolf over the last two weeks, including shutting down thousands of businesses and issuing a “stay-at-home” order for 19 counties, are essential to thwarting worst-case scenarios and reducing future deaths, Henderson said. If the order was extended to the entire state and effectively enforced, the model projects that hospitals would not be overwhelmed, fewer than 3% of the population would be infected, and about 4,000 people in Pennsylvania would die from the illness."
  4. range is 38,000 to 162,000 & this analysis appears to take into account the current mitigation practices unlike the model projections reported earlier with the death toll as high as 2.2M. Additionally this is thru the next four months, I would assume models with higher projections run through at least the calendar year incorporating the 2nd fall/winter wave.
  5. 70% failure rate, crazy https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-spain-says-rapid-tests-sent-from-china-missing-cases-2020-3
  6. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52019509 I mean WTF????? 23 March - test results delayed "Dr Bahorik calls the hospital to be told that the wait for test results is now 10 days because the samples were sent off to laboratories that are currently overwhelmed."
  7. Spain - 8,578 new cases, 655 fatalities, total death toll now over 4K at 4,089 Iran - a record 2,389 new cases, 157 fatalities Russia recorded a case rise of 182 the past 24hrs. & has implemented a shutdown of non-essential business as well as halting all International Air Traffic
  8. The gun shops have reopened, by Governor on recommendation by the state supreme court, so might as well ad sauce to the list.
  9. I highly doubt you'll find an abandoned nursing home with dead bodies in our hard hit regions. Case & point the efforts being taken today at the facility in Woodbridge. Regarding the 249 New Orleans officers who were unaccounted for during Katrina only 45 of them were actually cited for desertion & subsequently fired.
  10. Outside of Germany it comes across that these W. European nations have little regard for the elderly. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/24/820711855/spanish-military-finds-dead-bodies-and-seniors-completely-abandoned-in-care-home "Speaking in a television interview, Robles said staff in some centers had left the nursing homes after cases of COVID-19 were detected. Residents were abandoned to take care of themselves, even though some were sick and in serious condition."
  11. Anne's Choice is a huge retirement complex in Warminster, just heard today that a receptionist tested positive. Several employees & 70 residents are now in quarantine. I worked there last month doing some renovations & can tell you there are many residents that are in poor health. Hopefully they can avoid a really ugly situation.
  12. The Archdiocese of Philadelphia has announced that they are cancelling all Holy Week & Easter public services. This directive affects more than 250 parishes in SE PA.
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