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samsara2

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About samsara2

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  1. The temp readings in Europe are insane. I was in Avignon in late May and it felt rather hot even with temps around 75-80F. Cannot imagine what 110F there would be like -- and over a huge region, on multiple days, and where many people do not have AC.
  2. The 12z EURO D10 output is insane. Caveat, this is OBVIOUSLY D10. But I think this would have ingredients on the table for major Midwest / interior NE winter storm potential. At this frame it is already snowing heavily across western Nebraska and the Foothills of the Rockies. And yes, that is a fresh lobe of Arctic air inbound across the Canadian Prairies. Obviously this is ABSURDLY far out, however, it isn't like there is anything else to track at the moment, so let's cross our fingers something interesting occurs!
  3. IMO early break-up / melt of Bering + Beaufort combined with late melt of Hudson Bay should favor Ridiculously Resilient Ridge / Terribly Tenacious Trough configuration through July which usually translates into humid for us during summertime with unexceptional heat (altho with very high humidity heat doesn't exactly need to be exceptional to be gross). I would think after HB is done we revert to ridging over most of the continent and become more + vs normal in August and most + vs normal by September, as has been typical past few years.
  4. Tonight's EURO has more snow for Chicago on May 5th although there wouldn't be stickage verbatim. Still.... we may not be done!!!
  5. The guidance for Chicago is absurd. 12z EURO is 8-10" for the city PROPER now. RGEM etc are also 10"+. Can you imagine if NYC got a 6" snowfall this time of year? This is basically the equivalent, climatologically speaking. O'Hare stands a decent chance of shattering their old 4/25+ record snowfall.
  6. I think it is remarkable that the 500MB setup for this event in Chicago is so UNremarkable in the Lower 48, with heights not even that significantly below normal. Also, RGEM and HERPDERPS are LIT for Chicago. I think there is growing consensus for 6"+ totals in most of the NRN burbs and even Downtown may see 1-3". O'Hare has a decent chance of breaking its record for largest snowfall post 4/25.
  7. 00z CMC finally came around to major snows into Chicago burbs (and sig accumulations into city proper). NAM, GFS also seem to have continued improving overall. This will be quite an event if it verifies as modeled or slightly colder...!
  8. 12km NAM went much colder, now has big accumulations into CHI burbs, and 3KM is ready to rumble well into CHI proper...!
  9. It looks like modeling is still trending generally colder, although it is happening in fits. I could see 6" totals in McHenry County and 3" down to the N Shore burbs and O'Hare while the City gets .1-1".
  10. The EURO is actually 6+ all the way into the northern Chicago burbs
  11. GFS is now showing accumulations into Chicago burbs and snow falling in city proper... that would be pretty insane for almost May!
  12. It's not like there is anything else to discuss... oh look its 70 degrees and boring outside let's talk about that...
  13. Looks like chances of a very late season snow event are picking up for far interior and much of the Upper Midwest... maybe even Chicago burbs? FV3 and CMC also similar
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