samsara2 - 33andrain Jump to content


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About samsara2

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  1. I'm excited to see how high The Battery gets. We need about 3.5-4' of surge to see flooding with maxes of 5.8' and 5.6' impending. Winds will be favorable all of today and into tomorrow morning for water to pile up. I would bet we get to between 8-9' which is short of real flooding but enough to see some minor impacts on the promenade.
  2. The bleeding in NW Canada has only just begun. I am also attaching our departure on 3/18 vs recent normals and vs 2012 (the worst year for the sea ice on record). Parts of NW Canada are running +20C vs normal, and +30C or more vs this time in 2012 (aka up to +60F!!!)
  3. I actually think the threat after this impending coastal may be our last (or second to last) legit shot. At this time of year we need snowcover in our backyards to have a real chance at snow, and this impending threat will accomplish that, even if it won't snow down to the coast. This could setup a decent antecedent condition for the following event, though at this point we are obviously fighting climo and at the moment a substantial event does not look likely (though that could change). My wording on "second to last threat" is because modeling is now putting up an epic Rex block over Alaska and the Bering / Beaufort. Canadian snowcover is now plunging in the Yukon and its vicinity, which is also going to result in no airmass modification as warmth drifts into Bering and Beaufort. This means we are going to see (IMO) a record-early melt out of both of those seas this year. When combining this look with +++thick ice over Hudson, +++snow over Quebec, and +++snow over the Rockies and Upper Midwest / Great Lakes vicinity, I think it translates into a 500MB pattern that should be favorable to snowfall potential well into April. Whether we actually see any substantial additional accumulations on the coast is another story.
  4. I think there is a major link between +++springtime snowcover in the Rockies (and NAmerica in general) and ensuing development of +ENSO conditions, which is partially why I have been gung ho for major Nino since February. I don't know exactly what the mechanism is but I think we see something similar with +snowcover in Quebec and +SSTA in the NW ATL. I guess the gradient between the warm oceans and the cold mountains (and snowcover) results in stronger winds downwind of the ranges / coverage and upwelling of oceanic heat (in these cases, ENSO regions, and NW NATL). But that is just my crazy theory, although this year my call is seemingly verifying.
  5. I don't think it really matters that much anymore, even in 15-16 which was bigger than 97-98, we had 30"+ on the season. Look at how well NYC did this year in spite of so many failures -- we broke 20", and may or may not have more on the way, in spite of a DJF that was almost entirely snowless. However, I do think (or hope) that 19-20 brings the potential that we missed out on in 18-19. I could see lingering effects of -SSTs in the Great Lakes and N of the Gulf Stream impacting our sensible weather much more next winter than this winter. But I am an optimist and we have several months to watch and see if ^ happens.
  6. The trends today in the short-term have been completely bonkers. The 12z CMC would be a devastating coastal storm for many communities. If these continue, NYC could also see substantial flooding.
  7. Since the Middle America thread is dead I'm posting this here since it is amazing! Those are buildings being excavated LOL
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