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samsara2 last won the day on April 25

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  1. Oh, furthermore -- I think the main thing to watch for our purposes over the next two to three weeks of "boring" weather (with occasional bonkers GFS FAKE NEWS hurricanes), will be what unfolds in the NPAC. As Siberian snowcover revs much earlier than normal, over a much wider area than normal, the albedo anomalies will be quite substantial relative to this time of year (due to falling insolation, snowcover 3 weeks earlier than normal is much more impactful in this regard than snowcover 1 week earlier than normal). The albedo anomalies from such substantive coverage will combine with a growing dome of cold air above this region (due to the nascent Siberian High, infused by the Arctic continually spilling its guts into the Eurasia), and this is likely to result in major cold blasts propagating into Okhotsk and the NW Pacific for the forseeable future. Ultimately these Siberian airmasses will make it to North America, probably around 10/1, and as that happens in sync with our own continental amplification derivative of the +SSTA / lack of sea ice up north, we will see a major area of -500MB heights emerge over Canada in concert with deep snowfalls over this same region. However, I think this may lead to some amount of sustained warmth for NYC. We are still next to the broiling Atlantic Ocean and tropical activity is going to continue pumping a powerful Bermuda High / Southeast Ridge. While we will see occasional cold as the Canadian airmasses make their way southeast, I wonder if we will have to wait a while longer (10/15+++) until we feel the -500MB heights from the interior more than the massive amounts of oceanic heat that same cold will be advecting up north into the Arctic on its way down to the GOM and Atlantic. Ultimately this should work out well for us as the same clash of airmasses is how we get prolific snowstorms, but until that occurs, there is a reason NYC is classified as "subtropical". The nascent cool pools derivative of snowfall, snowmelt, and albedo anomalies are actually already forming (or were already extant and partially remaining from last cold season), in southern Okhotsk and next to Quebec. I would watch for both of these cold pools to expand in area and severity into October and November.
  2. When did the 2002 and 2010 events propagate? PS Siberia is off to a running start in terms of snowcover, and this week should see very impressive gains continue to spread. By 10/1 I anticipate Eurasia's # will be the highest (or nearly the highest) for the date in the satellite record. I think North America will start to get substantial coverage the end of September but will take until 10/10-15 to join Eurasia in the absurdly anomalously above + category. By 10/15 I expect Quebec and most of the Canadian Shield to be white.
  3. The ASIF is the only good sea ice / weather forum besides this one.
  4. The sea ice forum has great discourse on the southern hemisphere SSW. While we do not know what exact impact it will have on our weather, looking at data, it is already having a MAJOR impact across much of the Southern Hemisphere. If 2002 and 2010 are any indicators, maybe we will see a cold / snowy December?,2452
  5. Turning NNW by 108 I think this setup is still viable because it is not handling the overhead high well If the wavebreak ridge (high) is any faster and Humberto any slower, the high is going to slide overtop and to the east of Humberto, preventing exit and shunting it N&W While this is currently happening well offshore, it has trended much closer run by run, and I don't think a hit is impossible If the high sliding east trends much faster, Humberto's turn is going to occur much further West, and it could pose a much greater landfall risk You can see this playing out comparing the 00z GFS to the 18z run from 6 hours ago; the bulk of the high this run is to the NE of Humberto instead of being birfurcated
  6. If at first you don't succeed, try and try again -- The GFS
  7. The 18z GFS looks like it is also embracing the west trend more fully (although it is still OTS). I wonder if we end up with an outcome like Hermine. It ends up near the coast but stalls and rots without any steering currents underneath the engorged high pressure.
  8. CMC and ICON also similar, I bet 00z EURO follows as well given trend on 18z EURO ensembles
  9. By 132hrs the 00z FV3 GFS is about 1,000 miles WSW of where 18z was at 138, lol!
  10. Ummm... the 00z FV3 GFS trended BIGLY towards potentially keeping Humberto from turning OTS, although it still does it this run. The wavebreak over eastern North America is much more potent and farther east. By 120 hours we have this instead of this from 18z It is worth noting that the system behind Humberto (to the NE of the Lesser Antilles) is also a bit stronger at 00z. Maybe stronger second system also pumps the ridge in the Central Atlantic more, further blocking Humberto's potential OTS track in sync with a more aggressive wavebreak.
  11. Old GFS now has a major cyclone 18z run was nada 00z Para is strung out but ^^^ is a sign 06z or 12z will possibly cave
  12. Are you kidding me... 13-14 and 14-15 were both 50"+ and epic cold, 15-16 was the largest storm in NYC history, 16-17 was 30+, 17-18 was 40", and even 18-19 managed 20+ in the Park with the largest early season event on record to boot.
  13. So THAT is a turn of events on the 00z EURO. WOW. It now takes the low that develops off the SE Coast from 24-48 hours, and rolls it up into New England, with LI ultimately seeing hurricane force gusts and NYC subject to major surge. By 168 hr the new system is trapped By 216 it is not Seriously WOW, this literally came out of nowhere but the threat isn't off the boards, it is sitting right off the coast already!
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