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Crossbowftw3

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About Crossbowftw3

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    Sullivan County NY

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  1. Someone get the gif of Joker saying "and here we go."
  2. Looking forward to the fall preview, that's for sure. anyway, watch issued for pretty much everywhere east of me, as I would've figured given the stubbornness of the clouds this morning into the early afternoon. Hoping we can see something of note
  3. Day 1 cut the Slight/Marginal lines to just to my west; not buying threat overall for me now but could be a place of initiation for storms east of me.
  4. Binghamton's new AFD already pretty much squashes the threat for me, or at least presents the big caveat: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1000 AM Update...Morning convection is now exiting the forecast area, with just scattered showers behind it. Latest visible imagery shows the area mostly draped with clouds/convective debris and short wave is very clear on satellite and about to enter our far western forecast zones. The cloud cover is going hinder diurnal heating and thus instability is likely going to be quite weak as this next wave passes. There could be a few breaks in the clouds that allow some heating, but the timing of the wave is such that even if we do clear in some spots, there will be very little time to destabilize. Behind this short wave, water vapor shows very dry air/subsidence, so scattered to widespread storms looks unlikely...especially with the forcing pushing east out of the region this afternoon. Have adjusted PoP accordingly and still leave likely showers/storms across our far eastern forecast zones later this afternoon.
  5. After the morning rain yesterday we didn't even see afternoon showers. Today it's just gray outside
  6. When it comes to forecasting severe events there definitely are nuances that don't get resolved until the day 1 updates. Take the example of the May 20th high risk in Oklahoma--seemed like a slam dunk outbreak, with modeled soundings from Norman that were so eerily similar to Birmingham on the afternoon of April 27th, 2011, yet the nuance of weak lapse rates didn't make itself known until the convection initiated.
  7. Ultimately wouldn't have made much difference for me further north since our prospects were null at best.
  8. Between the Marginal/General storms line here, NYC south (more Philly south) is looking good
  9. Per latest BGM AFD: warm front likely to stall near Wilkes-Barre keeping the severe shunted to the south creating a rain/elevated storm threat for me high temperature at my house tomorrow: 74 high temperature in philly, the middle of enhanced zone: near 90
  10. Hell, even the enhanced seemed eye popping. Regardless, being so far north away from Trenton means my prospects are null at best. Hoping we can take the rain we do get tomorrow, though
  11. Jersey is our tornado alley? Definitely not shocking given how this season has gone. more PAC stream this winter? Hopefully cuts down on the need to shovel but I hope for one good snowstorm this year after we got so repeatedly robbed last winter thanks to mixing and changeovers happening so often after a front end snow thump.
  12. Meanwhile all the way up here in Sullivan we don't have much prospects for severe, a shower-y type event with embedded thunder is in our cards
  13. And now out of the severe watch. Given how intense last night was I'll take a quiet rest of the night tonight.
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