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About Crossbowftw3

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    Sullivan County NY

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  1. Heaviest rain of the day now unfolding but signs of lighter showers/tapering off are likely now moving in. Nice little storm we've had here. I'm just left wondering what kind of harbinger for the rest of the season this may be.
  2. Rain finally began about two hours ago. No wind but wind isn't really a concern here anyway. Rain approaching .25 with the heaviest to come
  3. I'm ready to take this thing on up here in Sullivan. Main concern remains squarely on rainfall up here, and at least we may be able to make it past lunch before any rain begins to fall which is a plus. Still thinking 1-2" of rain here with reasonable potential for more.
  4. Agree, probably very limited instability actually builds inland to sustain a chance for brief tornadoes.
  5. Technically it was Jose, or one of the storms from last year. Can't remember which.
  6. BGM take... Friday and Friday night... Models in general agreement that a coastal, quasi-tropical moisture laden system will track north during this time period and spread clouds and showers to a good portion of the forecast area, but especially the eastern half. A cold front, supported by an upper low dropping through the Great Lakes, will affect western NY and the far border of our area on Friday night. The interaction between the two features is, unfortunately, very uncertain which plays into the decisions on any impact from possible locally heavy rainfall. Previous model trends had been divergent with about half indicating an axis of heavy rain mainly falling over eastern NY and New England, with the other side positioning high amounts of rain over the Catskills and NEPA zones. Latest operational guidance has come more into agreement that there could be a stripe of 2 to 4 inch rains along and east of I-81. That said, ensemble probabilities were indicating very low percent chances for rainfall amounts in excess of 1, or 2 inches...but did the pattern did spatially target our eastern zones, similar to the individual operational models. At this point, we`re still in a wait and see mode regarding the evolution of the system and also model trends. We will highlight the potential for locally heavy rainfall in our eastern areas within our Hazardous Weather Outlook. Some good news is that there is room for runoff in the hydrologic systems around here to help mitigate a potential for widespread flooding.
  7. Would help if we could get this thread pinned. First likely TC to affect our waters since Jose (I believe) and wouldn't this be one of the earliest for us? Nevertheless I don't see much more than some gusty winds (to 40 MPH?) on the coastlines with surge problems, with up to 2-3" of rain to accompany it. For those of us inland N&W of NYC...uh...half inch to an inch of rain barring any enhancement?
  8. In conjecture with this. Do I hear 120 degrees in Oklahoma?:
  9. Currently 77/70 with the last of the cluster coming through. I'd estimate somewhere between .5-1" has fallen in the last hour or so. Can't imagine we have much of a severe threat later.
  10. This is crazy, rain largely ended 15 minutes ago and I can STILL hear decently close rumbles!
  11. Three nearly stationary thunderstorms are all within a 20-30 mile radius of me and all are moving in different directions Insanity.
  12. https://mobile.twitter.com/KerrinJeromin/status/1280219331780108288?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet Wouldn't be shocked if more storms fire around Philly later
  13. Meanwhile up here in Sullivan it's 89/63 with no signifcant development to report as of now. Us northern folks need some rain, hoping this weekend pans out to cut a dent into defecits.
  14. 71 after a daytime high of 87 thanks to a brief shower. That cluster exiting Orange and entering NNJ looks pretty impressive.
  15. 77/69 in wake of the big cluster that came through
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