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About Crossbowftw3

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    Sullivan County NY

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  1. Interesting wind component could evolve city-east mainly; potential for quick blast of 40-60 MPH gusts especially in convection, west of there generally under 30
  2. Great post as always. I'd place odds of direct impacts from Massachusetts west as <2-5% at this point but can't really discount anything until we're sure. Bermuda is just getting power back today--only to lose it again (or worse) during Teddy. An ET cyclone (presumptively) into New England or Atlantic Canada would indeed be problematic at (at least per Euro) category 2 equivalent strength. Would we reasonably assume regionwide gusty winds with perhaps gusts to hurricane force across portions of Eastern/Northern New England?
  3. Could be me but recently I have noted storms generally beginning to cycle down by ~5-6 PM
  4. Very eerie feeling--knowing that two (potential) category 5 landfalls will have happened in three years--with Michael two years ago and now Laura, which may not entirely make it there by landfall, no, but with renalaysis would not be shocked if this got a bump up.
  5. I'd look first to the WF for where severe potential may be maximized; ae around the capital district. If lines/clusters form look for that to also start near the WF and drop south through the afternoon. For us in the MHV and south timing is probably key knowing that storms may not arrive until post-5 PM, with nocturnal cooling beginning not long after. The sun doesn't set at 9:30 anymore
  6. Agree with where the threat is mostly likely maximized. I get the feeling that most N&W of NYC metro will likely not have much in the way of storms/time to destabilize before the front crashes through
  7. Good news is the tropical threat likely turns away from our waters going forward Good, depending on how you view the situation. The classic GoM and Florida threats should begin to emerge in due time.
  8. I know someone on another forum (more technically the Tropical Weather Discord) who lived in Panama City (and still does with her husband, who both worked and still do at Tyndall) and some of that damage was legit.
  9. The sun is beginning to poke back out. I knew we'd see the sun before sunset!
  10. 5 PM update....CoC is continuing to pull away. Most of the area will be cleared soon. Things will ramp down soon and rather quickly.
  11. Back end of the rain rapidly advancing to me now. Some gusts but nothing too major (yet).
  12. Rain steadily coming down, limited wind to speak of--things should pick up relatively soon and am still expecting gusts around 40, but haven't investigated soundings to determine if any sneaky inversion had made it in or not. Thankful that this thing is moving fast. Hoping to see sunshine before sunset!
  13. Isaias may be commencing landfall as we speak.
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