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Red Fox

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About Red Fox

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  • Birthday 11/24/1990

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    North Istanbul, TR

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  1. Siberian - Aleutian pattern will emerge and MJO goes into phase 6, (just like end of February 2018 ) all these support upward wave flux to stratosphere but we don't know it will be a minor or major warming as yet.
  2. Stratospheric Polar Vortex is currently stronger than ERA interim average and it is forecasted to weaken compared to ERA average (GFS). However, I am not sure about early signals of a SSW event, it is too early I think. Stras. Vortex is forecasted strong according to ECM 03.11.2019 to 13.11.2019 12Z. U wind is enough to it to accept it strong strat. polar vortex as it is 41.8 m/s. Disconnection between the strat & the trop seems ahead...
  3. The October QBO has been updated at 7.27 and if it continue to descend, it appears to resemble 2006, 2004, 2002, 1997 and 1978 at this time... 1995 seems to descend fastly, I didn't include it.
  4. We have the worst october ever in Istanbul ! Even Iraqi, Syrian, Israeli and other Arabian deserts get rainfall, even tropical cyclones... Forcing in Eastern Indian Ocean causes positive and negative NAO patterns useless for my location, drought will continue. And polar vortex will remain strong. It seems to batting zero at least 2 weeks.
  5. I checked a cool anomalies in ENSO Region 1+2 and a warm anomalies in Region 3.4 for month to month and following 500 mb anomalies I have found. It seems true for much of Southern Europe
  6. I am not sure about that scenario might favor drier conditions for Southern Europe. Is there any historic data source for ENSO 1 + 2 region ? I wanna study on more.
  7. Andrej's(Recretos) map results positive temperature anomalies especially for Eastern Mediterranean. However, when I check the solar minimum winters from here: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle/historical-solar-cycles There are many winters with negative temperature anomalies for Eastern Mediterranean - such as 2007, 2008....... while in 1996 winter, most of part of Europe had negative temperature anomalies and Eastern Mediterranean was positive....
  8. I reached almost same winters by checking analogues but Accuweather's forecast for "Southeastern" Europe seems out of tune especially for 2002-03 - 2004-05 winters. There were drought conditions. I think they will fail as well as they failed 2017 winter forecast. Also SSW increases winter precipitation along Mediterranean coasts.
  9. Hi, I have been reading and following posts for a long while but I do not participate because English is my second language. Anyway, Accuweather's 2019-2020 Europe winter forecast is out. They predicted drought conditions for my country (Turkey), Greece and Italy. I checked El Nino Modoki, QBO and other analog composites. Almost all of them support wet conditions. I didn't understand why they predicted our region as "infrequent storminess" ? How can this be ? I am very disappointed. SSW winters with El Nino almost always increase precipitation in Mediterranean. Siberian October snow cover is not bad. QBO is more favoured for SSW later. But they indicated us as with infrequent storminess!
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