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Red Fox

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About Red Fox

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  • Birthday 11/24/1990

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    North Istanbul, TR

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  1. I am not complaining at this time. For several weeks, Southeastern Europe have been suffering with positive 500 mb anomalies. At least this is the end for us.
  2. Thank you Zac. So it seems that we have to wait much more (until second half of January) for Istanbul to have sea-effect heavy snow showers again. We really missed patterns like this one. Or this one:
  3. Siberian - Aleutian pattern will emerge and MJO goes into phase 6, (just like end of February 2018 ) all these support upward wave flux to stratosphere but we don't know it will be a minor or major warming as yet.
  4. Stratospheric Polar Vortex is currently stronger than ERA interim average and it is forecasted to weaken compared to ERA average (GFS). However, I am not sure about early signals of a SSW event, it is too early I think. Stras. Vortex is forecasted strong according to ECM 03.11.2019 to 13.11.2019 12Z. U wind is enough to it to accept it strong strat. polar vortex as it is 41.8 m/s. Disconnection between the strat & the trop seems ahead...
  5. The October QBO has been updated at 7.27 and if it continue to descend, it appears to resemble 2006, 2004, 2002, 1997 and 1978 at this time... 1995 seems to descend fastly, I didn't include it.
  6. We have the worst october ever in Istanbul ! Even Iraqi, Syrian, Israeli and other Arabian deserts get rainfall, even tropical cyclones... Forcing in Eastern Indian Ocean causes positive and negative NAO patterns useless for my location, drought will continue. And polar vortex will remain strong. It seems to batting zero at least 2 weeks.
  7. I checked a cool anomalies in ENSO Region 1+2 and a warm anomalies in Region 3.4 for month to month and following 500 mb anomalies I have found. It seems true for much of Southern Europe
  8. I am not sure about that scenario might favor drier conditions for Southern Europe. Is there any historic data source for ENSO 1 + 2 region ? I wanna study on more.
  9. Andrej's(Recretos) map results positive temperature anomalies especially for Eastern Mediterranean. However, when I check the solar minimum winters from here: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle/historical-solar-cycles There are many winters with negative temperature anomalies for Eastern Mediterranean - such as 2007, 2008....... while in 1996 winter, most of part of Europe had negative temperature anomalies and Eastern Mediterranean was positive....
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