I took a few days off to see where we stand Just before January. We have two areas of convection currently. One in p4-5(about to get stronger) and weaker wave in p8.
The wave in p4 will become the dominant wave after the 9th. The kelvin wave in the cold
phases will slowly die out. We should get a cold shot in response of the kelvin wave between the 6th-10th. If there is a week in January we can snow my money would be on the 2nd week. This cold pattern will not last long as the Aleutian ridge will build and we get a p5 response.
The other major issue I see so far this winter is the fact the enso state in neutral. We have not had anything to trigger the El Niño. So with that in mind, we are at the mercy of the mjo. The above images are for a neutral response in January for p4-5. The ens all agree on this look and the warmth in January. This could be January 2007 type warmth.
For snow fans the outlook looks miserable. Going into this winter I thought above average snow for nyc. I think it’s going to be stretch to reach 20 now. The major issue being that niño has failed to show up and the mjo doesn’t want to play ball. If we want to save the back half of winter we need to see the mjo progress into p7-8 after the 20th. If this fails to do so and collapse into cod it’s probably game set match on this failed winter.
Sorry everyone, I wish i had better news to report.