Allsnow

We could get a end of the month flip to colder if the mjo moves into p8-1.

Well then you have been told wrong. Even if it’s in cod depending on what phase it’s close to you will feel those effects. Those RMM plots show cod but in reality we are not in it.

Yes we need the TPV to weaken. But even if it was positioned in Hudson Bay, we have no mechanism to bring the cold down because of the mjo. It would be even more of a gradient look favoring NNE with a -pna and southeast ridge. Absolutely incorrect

I took a few days off to see where we stand Just before January. We have two areas of convection currently. One in p4-5(about to get stronger) and weaker wave in p8. The wave in p4 will become the dominant wave after the 9th. The kelvin wave in the cold phases will slowly die out. We should get a cold shot in response of the kelvin wave between the 6th-10th. If there is a week in January we can snow my money would be on the 2nd week. This cold pattern will not last long as the Aleutian ridge will build and we get a p5 response. The other major issue I see so far this winter is the fact the enso state in neutral. We have not had anything to trigger the El Niño. So with that in mind, we are at the mercy of the mjo. The above images are for a neutral response in January for p4-5. The ens all agree on this look and the warmth in January. This could be January 2007 type warmth. For snow fans the outlook looks miserable. Going into this winter I thought above average snow for nyc. I think it’s going to be stretch to reach 20 now. The major issue being that niño has failed to show up and the mjo doesn’t want to play ball. If we want to save the back half of winter we need to see the mjo progress into p7-8 after the 20th. If this fails to do so and collapse into cod it’s probably game set match on this failed winter. Sorry everyone, I wish i had better news to report. Allsnow

Was it to warm for this past week and next?

If we agree that the euro might have a warm bias in the long range? Can we agree that the GEFS are always too cold in the long range?

@PB GFI you chose a 850 and 500 mb map to state your claim. In reality after a brief cold shot we are above normal in January.

Name some stuff we can do with the warm January coming?

Can it get any worst then it is now? It feels like spring outside