Long-time lurker in this forum. I'm currently a forecaster at NWS Chicago and got my start in NWS as a SCEP at OKX back in February 2009 and worked there until July 2010. I was born and raised in College Point in Queens. Wanted to offer some of my thoughts on this system. For simplicity purposes, will assume as many think that the GFS and NAM are outliers and use one of the favored models that has an output of prolonged heavy snow for NYC, the 18z RGEM. Despite what this model is showing (particularly qpf and snow output), the H7 low (18z, 21z, 00z attached below) appears unfavorable for prolonged heavy snow over the coastal Plain, including NYC. As you can see, at 18z the h7 low is west of the latitude of NYC and at 21z is over or west of NYC. This path makes it quite likely that the mid-level dry intrusion will surge across these areas. Indeed on soundings on AWIPS, also available on meteocentre site, there is a general saturation issue in the aforementioned hours in the all important -12C to -18C layer, otherwise known as the DGZ. With this in mind, in my view, the model is indicating too much QPF and as a result snow where it is showing the mid-level dry slot. Another worry is that with such close proximity of the low and mid-level low centers is the strength of the WAA aloft which is often underdone and less commonly overdone by the models, which could introduce mixing issues fairly quickly. Conceptually, the RGEM/hi-res RGEM and also Euro which shows a similar h7 low path, looks to support a heavy (possibly very heavy) front end WAA thump where advisory to warning amounts may be met if mixing does not occur too quickly. Thereafter, during a bulk of the afternoon, could be spent with lighter mixed precip under the dry slot. Finally, it appears the comma head (defo axis NW of h7 low) could pay a visit to the area during the evening with a possible return of moderate-heavy snow, though uncertainty on duration of this makes it uncertain how much snow would fall during this time. With all this in mind, the afternoon forecast issued by OKX appears pretty reasonable for NYC and LI and this looks to be a major interior event. Obviously this is a very fluid situation with close attention needing to be paid to observational trends and a very dynamic storm that could have some tricks up its sleeve. For everyone wanting heavy snow in the city and LI above current NWS and NCEP model forecasts, I honestly hope it happens and that I'm wrong, having grown up a snow lover myself starting with blizzards of 93 and 96. But this is how I see things right now (apologies for the length). Also, for the great pros on here, please correct me if I'm wrong on any of the above - always looking to learn from others. Thanks for reading.