(this is my first real post here. Which is why this is late, it was released last month)
The following is the 12th annual summer forecast, regional and abbreviated for the greater New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas for 2019.
The progression is forecast to be a June featuring above normal temperature departures for both cities with these readings going even further above normal in July and staying above average in August.
The pattern would also lend itself to a higher than normal risk of a TC strike in Texas and North Carolina and even Newfoundland later on.
I am forecasting both NYC and PHL to reach 100 degrees this summer, possibly in back to back days.
This is forecast to be a very hot summer.
This is forecast to be a wetter summer than average, particularly in late July/August. Note that there will be some very dry periods but that this will be overcome on the means.
NYC temp departures in my forecasts are a small range with the mean being the forecast and the range signifying the varying stations around this large city, (the same formula as the winter forecasts). The areas included in the mean are EWR (Newark, NJ)...LGA (LaGuardia airport, NYC) and JFK (John F. Kennedy airport, NYC). To me this is most representative of the vast majority of NYC residents, including the areas surrounding the city and continuing to discard the unusual observations temp-wise at Central Park, NYC.
Philadelphia temp departures are for the international airport ASOS station and are also a small range representing the city and immediately surrounding counties.
Forecast temp departures by month for both cities:.
June: +0.75 to +2
July: +1.75 to +4.5
August: +1.25 to +3.75
June: +0.5 to +2
July: +1.5 to +3.75
August: +1 to +3
As you can see the forecast is for a very hot summer.
90 degree days (from May to OCT)