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JM. last won the day on August 6

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  1. The timeframe for all of this starts 48 hours after the CCKW passes the central Gulf of Mexico Longitude to 10/8. (That’s for development. Some systems may last past the 8th and this may need to be amended to include a new set of TCs forced by other processes. I’ll let you know.
  2. And yes, of course I’ll see if I can get ever more specific soon. I definitely expect a NW Caribbean/Gulf system and for it to end up pretty powerful. But that’s later on after the Atlantic storms have formed. What affect they have on everything and how that affects the homegrown storm? I’ll let you know when I know.
  3. The convectively coupled Kelvin wave will be making its way into the western Atlantic basin and later to the main development region. Meanwhile strong high pressure over the east will only make be Caribbean and or Gulf development much more likely. A probable result of this going forward is 3-4 tropical cyclones to develop in the Atlantic and 1 or 2 in the Gulf and or NW Caribbean. The progression should be some ITCZ/MDR development first. Homegrown systems afterward. Then another surge of Atlantic development.
  4. There may legitimately be people in the eye that have been cut off from communication and media and after 4-6 hours of calm weather not understand that the storm is only half over. Just to be shocked by the next eyewall passage. Yes we would be able to look up and know, and many old time locals will too. But some are going to be very unpleasantly surprised later.
  5. Well it looks like I’m headed back north tomorrow. I’m not missing my flight home (that was already booked) and my appointment Wednesday because of missing said flight home to chase TS force winds and the off 65-75mph gust over on the east coast. If I can’t say with reasonable confidence that I can legitimately get into the western eyewall it’s just not worth the hassle and expense to do it, and that just doesn’t appear likely. What a waste.
  6. Amazing, I can’t believe I didn’t think of this, maybe weather just isn’t my forte after all.
  7. The expected core structural changes are now occurring. Dorian now has concentric eyewalls. Fluctuations in intensity are going to continue going forward. The island land masses are not causing this. Core structural change, upwelling, shallower water in some areas under its present location etc. These are the factors affecting the intensity at present. Many strong hurricanes have affected these islands and though the islands that Dorian have just made landfall in over the past day had never recorded a cat 5 yet until now, they have recorded many cat 3 and 4 storms, most of which passed over them continuing to intensify or maintaining strength. There are no examples of these islands alone causing the weakening of a hurricane. It simply does not happen, for reasons that have been discussed in the past.
  8. Grand Bahama island will never be the same.
  9. Go, don’t go? We’ll see in the morning.
  10. Thats the thing, the CDO was impeded on the west side just hours ago, and it did expand west along with the upper citrus flow.
  11. Eyewall replacement cycles are double edged swords....yes it will knock down the historic strength to lower in the cat 5 area and maybe even to upper cat 4. But the storm will not only remain catastrophic in strength but then see its wind field expand. So a little weaker, still a monster and just bigger. Why some in FL are rooting for this, I don’t understand.
  12. The steering currents are collapsing but the mid level impinging on the western part of the CDO has decreased while the upper flow continues to suggest further westward forward motion, (as suggested by the outlined cirrus pattern).
  13. My present location. Looking to head to Palm Beach now.
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