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About weatherwiz

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  • Birthday 10/28/1988

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    West Hartford, CT

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  1. This is what I'm thinking for CT. I'm a huge fan of the higher-than-typical ratios for this type of setup. Signal for dynamic cooling should keep this mostly snow for much of the state (though may get some sleet across the southern part of the state...especially the shoreline). While there isn't much room for significant improvement, I do think as we get closer the models will ramp up lift into the DGZ a bit more. I think we should see a 2-3 hour period where snow rates are about 1.5''/hr and ratios 13:1 to 15:1. Here is 12z bufkit for BDL...pretty decent crosshair signature. with the dynamic cooling at 850/925 and not much of a change with temp in the mlvls (at least when compared to what's going on below) this should result in some beefier fronto/lift than what is indicated right now.
  2. December was pretty crazy here. I have to update my location but I live in Windsor Locks...actually like 2 minutes from the airport. That big storm BDL ended up with like 16'' total or something. I was hoping January would be active b/c I would like to live through another 100'' winter here
  3. There's quite a bit I like about this setup as we get closer and this is one of those in which I think has decent potential to overperform here in southern New England). 1) Historically I think these setups have had a tendency to overperform when we have such a cold air mass out ahead of them. I think this is due to the fact that snow rations end up being higher than one would expect for this type of setup. Obviously the hey here is having the sufficient lift needed to maximize the snow ratios but given the thermal profile...we should expect solid ratios...at least to begin. 2) The push of WAA is very strong but note how winds (looking at 850) also are more perpendicular to the flow as opposed to parallel...this could actually slow down the progression of WAA or at least weaken it. Looking at 850 temp advection maps you can actually see that hinted across SNE. 3) llvl dynamics look to really ramp up...this should help promote dynamic cooling which will also halt the progression of warmer air. Latest NAM cools 850's over this region actually despite northeast progression of 0C 850. 4) The strongest of the WAA remains just SW of New England which is great for this region...would promote very strong llvl frontogenesis and upward vertical motion.
  4. Whoever ends up under the best frontogenesis is going to rock...ratios should be pretty sweet. Can rule out some convective elements either which could further locally enhance snowfall rates. Obviously too early to focus in on rates but they could be quite hefty under the heaviest banding. There is going to be an extremely tight thermal gradient as well...-10 to -13C 850's NNE and closer to 0 around/south of Long Island. Area of frontogenesis may be pretty expnasive
  5. There certainly is plenty of cold out ahead of the system, however, there are a few things to consider. 1) Based on the track of this system/how it evolves the thermal profile somewhere is going to becoming warmer/more marginal over time somewhere...where this happens is going to depend on several factors; Overall track of the main low along with strength Where/when the secondary develops and how quickly this develops..this will be key for locking in the cold 2) There is going to be some impressive WAA out ahead of the system...which isn't necessarily a bad thing. There could be a very impressive period of moderate-to-heavy snow across a large area if some of what is modeled pans out. 3) The HP does look to lose influence overtime, especially with southward extent. In this situation though, does the HP really man all that much? Unless it's the main driver is pushing the main energy south (which I don't think is the case) there are other features which may hold more of a significance.
  6. This looks like a pretty substantial hit for at least interior New England. I would also think there will be a zone of rather significant icing possible. Obviously too far out to pin down additional details but where it stays all snow totals could be pretty significant. One thing for certain is this system looks like it will have a tremendous amount of moisture...one thing to watch is whether this is convectively active across the southeast which ends up robbing some of the moisture. There also may be a pretty mean dry slot somewhere. That's a rather impressive vort being modeled with an extremely impressive jet max which develops south of southern New England. Whatever the outcome this is going to be quite the dynamic system.
  7. That was a special balloon launch so that is observation. 1) Very stout elevated mixed layer present (700-500mb lapse rate 7.6 C/Km)...alose see it viisually between about 800-550mb 2) Strong turning of the winds in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere (SE at the sfc to SW-ish at 700mb) 3) sfc dews in the mid 60's 4) sfc CAPE > 2000 J with MLCAPE > 1500 J sfc-1 helicity over 270 and over 300 0-3 helicity Not only is this environment supportive for tornadoes but quite supportive for a strong tornado in any discrete cell that can utilize these ingredients
  8. Tomorrow could be a pretty big day across MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle
  9. The HRRR looks to develop which appears to be a line of supercells heading towards evening in southeastern TX. STP values too nearly off the scale.
  10. RAP is projecting around 200 J of 3km CAPE around the DFW area later on with as much as 2000 J of MLCAPE. Anything discrete is quickly going to become tornadic
  11. This certainly supports the upgrade to high risk. This product is pretty great and kinda hard to argue against it...although personally I think the greatest overall threat is a bit farther south and east. But that is also due to the fact I think there may be a bit more discrete than what models are showing...this might be highlighted where greatest QLCS tornado potential exists??
  12. I'm a bit shocked Houston isn't in the higher probs. Seems like alot of the more favorable ingredients may evolve a bit outside of where the 15% probs are...so maybe that gets expanded with 30% included inside it?
  13. If we see an upgrade to high risk due to 30% tornado probs this is the area I'm thinking...latest guidance really hammering on this area.
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