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Mr. Kevin

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  1. I was curious if the 30-50mb levels continue to trend more negative or easterly, how long would it take to effect the atmosphere because i know ISOTHERM mentioned it in his winter outlook as a possible scenario.
  2. Hi snowy. I hope that doesn't happen because that would be winter cancel most likely in the east. Trough in the west isnt elniño i don't think. January is a wash so lets start the February discussion unless its too early.
  3. Do you have a map that you can post? Thats pretty big if true.
  4. No model has a clue right now with the mjo imo. Perhaps the strongest convection is truly where the mjo is currently located.
  5. Hi guys. Every winter we go down this avenue with one model saying this and that lol. In all seriousness, why is the eps advertising a warm pattern for most coming up? Dr. Roundy emailed me and said that there are two areas of convection of the mjo, which i thought with the standing wave in phase 3 that the mjo couldn't propagate. I would rather not want to be chasing unicorns all winter this winter. To add to my previous comments. It looks like this will be another December niño with above average temps to round out the year. There are many examples of that. This message is for @33andrain. I tried to pm message a friend because we communicate on here, but it wouldn't allow me to send a message. Would you look into that. I didnt know who to contact about that.
  6. I know this has been mentioned before, but if the euro is to be believed, the mjo goes from phase 3 into the COD, but the bias corrected gefs take it into low amplitude 3 and 4 phases. My question is if the euro is correct into the COD, does that matter on sensible weather in the future? Different models doing different things, and I'm asking because mjo isn't clearly understood, even by the best out there.
  7. Snowy, good job on your outlook. Its not too technical. I have two things to ask if you don't mind answering. How confident are you in your outlook? Last thing, isnt a -AAM more of a niña like atmosphere and +AAM niño like or am i incorrect? Reason i mention this is if we have a modoki elniño, wouldn't the AAM be more positive? Perhaps the atmosphere and ocean hasn't coupled yet?
  8. Hi tom (Isotherm). You did well with your winter forecast. I will admit that i was shocked it was that warm lol. I thought we had nore favorable factors leading into this winter, but maybe not. Would you mind answering a few things because i am curious. If we get a SSW event earlier than you think, would that change anything in your winter outlook? Also, what about the AAM? If that went more neutral to positive, would that be good for a colder outcome? I am trying to remain cautiously optimistic and see the glass as half full instead of half empty.
  9. Hi snowy. Do you believe it or is it the cfs being overly optimistic?
  10. Hi guys. I have a question whoever can answer it. If the IOD stays positive and slowly weakens as winter gets here, and qbo keeps dropping, wouldn't that allow the mjo to focus in phases 8,1, and 2, which allows the trough to focus more in central-eastern US, instead of the west? It may not actually happen that way, but it seems like it should though. Just curious.
  11. Hi tamara. I enjoy reading your posts and your thoughts about the pattern. Very knowledgeable for sure! I was curious about the Pacific side with the epo/wpo. What is your thought about those? I know in the winter of 13-14, both the nao/ao were crazy positive, however the epo/wpo were extremely negative. As of now, would you hedge your bets toward the Pacific allowing us to get cold, if we get cold at all? Thanks in advance.
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