Thundersnow3765

There was a rather decent handful of members showing this solution on the 12z GEFS. Not the majority of them, but there were 8 members with this look meaning it is still a possibility we have to contend with.

Snow squall threat for tomorrow morning remains on 06z HRRR

From reading through his post it looks like he was just using it as an illustration of his point, which is that SE ridging is a possibility when energy gets buried in the southwest states.

Definitely some good positive changes in the long range ensemble guidance today that have shifted further away from the concerns I posted earlier this week. Still plenty of time for further changes, but good looks today.

GFS Para lining up for a strike as well.

It won't stay below 0, but we just want it to stay weaker than normal (yellow line) to improve our chances for -AO and -NAO. Below 0 numbers represent a reversal of the zonal (west -> east) flow at 60N latitude in this case, aka a SSW event.

Oh I posted the wrong run, here's 18z. Ensembles agree on a weak vortex through mid February at the very least

Pretty robust trade burst occurring for next 10 days or so. The Nina probably isn't going anywhere in the medium term due to this, and it may actually strengthen a tad. Nino 3.4 index has been steady around -1C since November.

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

I'm not sure why you're not comparing an anomaly map to an anomaly map here. I created this one with the exact same scale as in the MJO composite. Pretty significantly different.

Sure didn't look like this past December

Way out there, but another nice look on this run. There will be storm threats during the supportive pattern we have long advertised.

Yeah that D10 look is pretty nice, but it's after that where the wheels might start to fall off so to speak. For example, the long range EPS looks pretty darn bad, no other way to put it lol

I'm sorry, what? The ensembles are keying into a -EPO forming, the concerns are about where the main axis of the cold air ends up.