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Thundersnow3765 last won the day on August 16 2020
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Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition Part II
Thundersnow3765 replied to brooklynwx99's topic in Weather Discussion
There was a rather decent handful of members showing this solution on the 12z GEFS. Not the majority of them, but there were 8 members with this look meaning it is still a possibility we have to contend with. -
Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition Part II
Thundersnow3765 replied to brooklynwx99's topic in Weather Discussion
Snow squall threat for tomorrow morning remains on 06z HRRR -
Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition Part II
Thundersnow3765 replied to brooklynwx99's topic in Weather Discussion
From reading through his post it looks like he was just using it as an illustration of his point, which is that SE ridging is a possibility when energy gets buried in the southwest states. -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Thundersnow3765 replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
Definitely some good positive changes in the long range ensemble guidance today that have shifted further away from the concerns I posted earlier this week. Still plenty of time for further changes, but good looks today. -
Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition
Thundersnow3765 replied to NJwxguy78's topic in Weather Discussion
GFS Para lining up for a strike as well. -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Thundersnow3765 replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
It won't stay below 0, but we just want it to stay weaker than normal (yellow line) to improve our chances for -AO and -NAO. Below 0 numbers represent a reversal of the zonal (west -> east) flow at 60N latitude in this case, aka a SSW event. -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Thundersnow3765 replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
Oh I posted the wrong run, here's 18z. Ensembles agree on a weak vortex through mid February at the very least -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Thundersnow3765 replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
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Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition
Thundersnow3765 replied to NJwxguy78's topic in Weather Discussion
Pretty robust trade burst occurring for next 10 days or so. The Nina probably isn't going anywhere in the medium term due to this, and it may actually strengthen a tad. Nino 3.4 index has been steady around -1C since November. -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Thundersnow3765 replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Thundersnow3765 replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
I'm not sure why you're not comparing an anomaly map to an anomaly map here. I created this one with the exact same scale as in the MJO composite. Pretty significantly different. -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Thundersnow3765 replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
Sure didn't look like this past December -
Weather Threats: Winter 2020-21 Edition
Thundersnow3765 replied to NJwxguy78's topic in Weather Discussion
Way out there, but another nice look on this run. There will be storm threats during the supportive pattern we have long advertised. -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Thundersnow3765 replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
Yeah that D10 look is pretty nice, but it's after that where the wheels might start to fall off so to speak. For example, the long range EPS looks pretty darn bad, no other way to put it lol -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Thundersnow3765 replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
I'm sorry, what? The ensembles are keying into a -EPO forming, the concerns are about where the main axis of the cold air ends up.