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About Thundersnow3765

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    Bucks County, PA

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  1. GFS 6z has an entirely different picture that looks more plausible since the main ridge axis stays out west (and even brings a trough into the area). It will be very interesting to watch how in evolves in the coming days.
  2. 594dam ridge axis right on top of the area. Hopefully we can get another trend away from this to a more moderate temperature regime, but I'm not so sure we will be as lucky this time. I don't expect anything like this though, but I think an extended stretch of 90s is definitely in the cards. The GFS extended stretch of 100s seems overdone considering I expect the main axis of the ridge to remain out further west like it has so far this summer.
  3. NYC will bullseye in a snowstorm this winter to make up for the severe wx flops
  4. 90F/73F Grass is getting very dry. Hoping for a storm today
  5. The storm over bucks county right now has some pretty cool cloud motions in it, lots of rotation up there. Too bad it just missed me
  6. Mesoscale Discussion 1023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020 Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey into Long Island and southern Connecticut Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271634Z - 271900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts or marginal hail are expected to form after 17Z, and will progress east/southeast toward the coast later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows veering winds across western PA, west of a deepening surface trough over eastern NY and PA. Nearly parallel to the winds a loft, a convergence zone oriented WNW to ESE is noted over central PA with associated showers, while rain persists from northeast PA into NY. Temperatures are warming quickly south of these showers across southern PA, MD and VA, and west/southwest 850 mb winds of 25-35 kt will aid destabilization northeastward toward the rain-cooled areas. A zone of 200 m2/s2+ effective SRH also exists along the warm/cool air interface, and this should translate east today as the warmer air spreads into eastern PA, NJ, and NY. Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected to develop over the next few hours where temperatures warm into the 80s, beneath modest westerly flow aloft. Since this area is behind the primary midlevel disturbance, lift will be driven mainly by warm advection, with at least isolated storms forming along or ahead of the aforementioned convergence zone over PA. A broken line of storms is possible, producing damaging wind gusts given favorable deep-layer mean winds. A supercell is possible as storms interface with the larger SRH area along the warm/cool air interface as well, and a brief/weak tornado could not be ruled out. With time, greater instability may spread northeastward into Long Island and CT, supporting isolated strong or severe storms. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/27/2020
  7. Up to 81F now and it is sunny, might have enough destabilization after all
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