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Chris21

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About Chris21

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  1. End of next week being this Friday? Still looks cold to me across the models for next weekend. After that, there looks to be at least a brief warmup but with the Mjo heading towards 1, it may not last.
  2. Going to go out on a huge limb and predict that the extreme qpf event depicted on the gfs (and only on the gfs... other models are not even in the same zip code much less ball park) has no legs.
  3. Sure does... the synoptic differences after day 4 on the gfs/para and CMC are really extreme even for this year.
  4. That’s awesome! Congrats! I love that area and I’ve also been looking at property around Davis. It a whole different world out there. The weekend I picked (the 7th) is looking more and more favorable on the latest models. Even the GFS is close to a pattern that would support at least a bit of upslope. EC and para look far better.
  5. Seeing as I am going skiing at Canaan valley from March 4th-7th I am closely monitoring the long term. Have enjoyed your analysis for years showme!
  6. I would hesitate to make such a declarative statement given the seasonal trends wrt blocking. The models have struggled mightily this season with the portrayal of high latitude blocking past day 7.
  7. I figured out the issue zlyda! That’s the day 3 map from sterling (which was just upgraded to orange) the day 4 is all red still! Ether way not the greatest tool but shows lwx is on board.
  8. From what I’ve seen... the map is often just not the greatest forecast tool... at least at LWX, shifts seem to often disagree about the severity of a storm causing a lack of continuity. That’s just been my observation over the past 5/6 years they have been doing it. If anything... the models are depicting a more impactful event for the dc metro with overwhelming agreement on at least a sleetbomb with surface temps continuing to tick colder!
  9. Yeah, was just relating it’s performance on this most recent ice storm. The Euro was atrocious with the previous three waves but figured it was worth mentioning that it was spot in with the last one! I’m down in dc so not much hope with the Tuesday wave but good luck to all of you further north. Maybe we can will this Thursday wave more favorable!
  10. The euro did significantly better than every other model for the recent ice storm in dc. Showed between .38 and .44 qpf and we received .45. NAM was indicating less than a tenth of an inch even during the storm.
  11. Euro ensembles have been atrocious lately. Continually keying in on the wrong shortwaves in the mid Atlantic region at least.
  12. NAM is sig. further south with the overrunning this run.
  13. Good example of how arctic air of this magnitude can change the entire base state. Not saying this depiction is correct but a few weeks ago with the same situation surface temps would have torched.
  14. Thanks for the explanation. I was referring more to the long range pattern being depicted on the means but excellent points.
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