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RoaDawg

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  1. verbatim, yes. However, it’s a giant leap in the right direction.
  2. looks can be a little deceiving on that gefs run as most if not all show rainstorms. Still a better look than the previous run though
  3. What a roller coaster these models are.... and just like that the cmc is back in the game with a miller b coastal transfer over the Delmarva after showing multiple runs taking the slp into minn and wisc
  4. yes, it is quite the drastic change. I’m also taking a little break after this current weekend system. This winter season is killer so far, every great projected pattern gets shot down out of the sky and flips on us out of nowhere. I always try to remain optimistic good things will be coming, but until there’s an actual winter storm watch for it I just can’t.
  5. I mean If you really think about it we only had 2 or 3 really good runs in the last 10 runs. I understand it’s hard to remain optimistic when every single storm trends worse or disappears, but there is literally 200 + hours left until this system even affects us. I’m not expert by any means, but I do know a thing or two, and have been very observant to models over these last 15 years or so. I found that around day 6 Or hr 144 is the real crunch time. If you don’t see substantial changes prior to that time it’s typically not happening. We got time folks. Don’t let these two runs ruin your weekend.
  6. So what’s different w hese last 2 runs ? The high over SE Canada seems to have disappeared/moved east much quicker on the 12z/18z runs compared to the 6z
  7. To be honest It’s still a great looking storm, just a few frames/hour too late w the transfer. other than the fact that it didn’t secondary, it’s still a beast. That will get ironed out over time. These models are whacky. Watch the cmc and euro show i95 bombs then vice versa this evening
  8. Seems like these primaries cutting up into the lakes are impossible to die off. Almost all of the storms we’ve had this season Showed something Like that
  9. Can anyone with a little more expertise care to break down the pros and cons of the pattern for this potential system? I hear the term thread the needle a lot, but don’t exactly know why. I like to know what to look for that may aid or hinder in the development of something great.
  10. It’s certainly a thing of beauty. I’m hoping we can finally cash in on one. Unfortunately we’ve been down this road a few times already this winter. Maybe our patience will finally pay off
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