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Grace

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  1. Truth is no one has a grip on a LR forecast. Way too many moving parts. Anything past 3-4 weeks is really an educated stab at it.
  2. Michael Clarke said on a video a while ago that 1993 was their #1 DEC & 1994 JAN analogs.
  3. Wish I knew also. BSR indicates very brief cool shot somewhere in the 7-10th timeframe, but indicates warm-up beginning 12-14. Could last a while. The correlation is weaker sometimes versus others....so, we'll see. I know BSR was one component BAMWX used to use in LR forecasting. So I'm kind of surprised they're doubling down on cold flip.
  4. Once again DEC looks to be difficult to predict. If fall is any indication we will continue to see some warm periods & some cold periods. How about this insight? Ha...but probably accurate. OCT 1-NOV 26 500mb COMPARED TO LAST YEAR Same period 2002, closet match I can find **Much stronger El Nino in 2002 but just noting. These last 7 weeks have a good mean look: OCT 15-NOV 26
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