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Grace

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  1. Correct! I've noticed way too much Euro model hugging when it comes to MJO...always. And because Euro modelled forecasted the 5,6 pause, many bowed down to it. The model was just wrong. This MJO wave is indeed similar to NOV but different pattern affects because time of year but even more because of greater stratosphere/troposphere coupling. So all in all that was a good call by @PB GFI when the MJO began. Fell short but CFS ended up being closer than Euro in the LR calls for the MJO.
  2. My interpretation of BSR is that we continue in this pattern for a good while with brief breaks here & there. Those breaks, like the one somewhere between NOV 6-10 will be brief & consist of stouter cold shots...again brief. After the colder shots pattern resumes until something else takes control. Overall, this pattern is not awful. It will not have deep arctic cold but it does allow systems to slow & amplify. The ridge placement in Canada really helps or this pattern would be horrid. Usually there will be some snow with marginal temps on cold side & cold rain on warm side associated with these systems & the track depends on who gets it. If Bering Sea region is modeled correctly, another break occurs mid-month. We wait to see after that. One thing to watch for also...this kind of pattern can trend a tad cooler if ridge retrogrades a little more north & remains..."if" pattern continues active. BTW...if timing is right the east coast has the ability to have a true coastal storm in this pattern. Just something to watch. I'm not predicting one just pointing the possibility.
  3. Thanks. And I agree on the warmth. Signs that maybe early to late 2nd week may improve...but no guarantees. And I mean improve not flip
  4. Actually the Bias correction you posted stays in COD after a head fake into phase 5: But yea, I get it, but i just wanted to point that out.
  5. Probably between FEB 5-9 using the Bering Sea Rule (BSR) which has a 17-21 day correlation. Correlation of troughs & ridges has been strong for the last 3.5 weeks.
  6. Keep in mind all the models have all along been reversing the wave or going back to COD in their LR. They all keep correcting that error in their mid-range. It's not inconceivable that they are still making that same mistake they've been consistently making in their LR throughout this wave. Ironically. The models kept making the same mistake in NOV MJO wave.
  7. That's not at all what I was doing. #1 Like already noted the BOM is not the Brazilian model it is the Australian model. #2 The point I made is totally valid.
  8. Ok...let's be objective then??? To be honest, there are no models that are great with MJO. But when you have a precedent & 3 models agreeing with the precedent & one of which has performed better so far with this wave it's a least worth considering.
  9. The Australian BOM & the JMA are in agreement with CFS also Just saying
  10. Thanks @donsutherland1 Mark works for Louisville NWS & I thought the tweet might be implying too much; however, Mark is sharp so I wanted some input.
  11. To be fair all the models have been showing this stop & retreat for the past week....only to show they were wrong. Be careful with model forecasts with MJO. They're usually not that great. With that said, not so recent history would argue we make it to phase 8 as has @donsutherland1 has been showing. And recent history of MJO progression in NOV would argue the same. This MJO wave has a higher amplititude than NOV & in NOV the models were doing basically the same thing they've been doing for this MJO wave. But the wave made it to phase 8 after all. I think we do the same thing this go around but enter each phase, including 8, at a higher amplitude before going back to COD. Models may not show that yet but if I were a betting man, I'd put money on that idea. And I think we end up with a 4-6 week stretch of weather that is a "version" (not replica) of the late OCT-NOV in the means...except mean ridge & trough might be a little further east as is usually the case. Could I be wrong? Yep...its weather
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