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About Blizzard16

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  1. Judah Cohen, (well known for his analogs and write ups of long range forecasting including polar vortex) just tweeted about Euro having a cold air bias. I figured with his credibility and knowledge on long range weather topics that there was some truth to it.
  2. I guess it would be better to have the ridge torch us in the middle of the month, and then have the trough from the west swing over and lay it all down once February starts. I don't know how likely the chances of that are (probably quite low.)
  3. Overall I will say that models have been good about picking up snow chances for the Northeast. They caught the storm mid month about a week in advance. No snow around NYC metro area but there was an ice storm further north with some snow. The chance around December 22nd never happened, but models caught onto a snow event about 10 days in advance for December 30 which turned out to be a snowstorm in Maine and an ice storm in other parts of the Northeast. They've also been sniffing out a threat around 1/6 over the last week or so, and it seems like a storm will move in from the Midwest through our area and cut into New England, bringing snow to New England and rain down here in NYC. So for the past 4 threats (mid December, 12/22, December 30 and the threat around 1/6), it appears that the models will have a performance of 3/4. 2 have already occurred, 1 never happened, and it seems increasingly likely that snow will accumulate in at least some part of our region on Sunday (one day before when they were sniffing out the threat.)
  4. Yeah especially with that one month thaw from mid January to mid February. Warm and mild during what would usually be our snowiest weeks. We would need a historically snowy month of March to even reach average.
  5. Do the analogs show what might happen after mid February?
  6. Yeah like I said before. There is some potential but everything needs to be perfect for NYC to have a shot to accumulate snow. Need heavy rates and nighttime. Surprising considering its January but at least its better than what the middle of the month will bring.
  7. I'm still holding out hope for February and March. Maybe this winter can still pull off a few more surprises.
  8. Even hurricane season has been more fun to track lately.
  9. Hey guys. Happy new year. There used to be a link to a page on weathermodels.com that showed how much snow has fallen in the season so far. I haven't seen it since the end of the 2018 winter. Is the page still operating?
  10. Congratulations. I hope you find the best of health in this new year.
  11. Well January is our best month for snow and although we've seen some of our biggest snows in February, the past few years have basically been duds for February. So if we get rid of our best month for snow, it'll be harder to reach the 25 inch average here in NYC.
  12. He will soon. January is toast, and its harder to get snow past that point. January will be like spring, and I bet the ridge continues through February and March. I'm calling it now. 2011-2012 winter redux here.
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