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About Hayisinthebarn

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    Hunterdon County, NJ

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  1. And yes, the models when used appropriately are important tools - but just that. Then again, there are tools and there are tools. Some work better in certain situations. And as Beavis would conclude: Heh, heh... he said “tool”.” Apologies in advance...
  2. I really appreciate the way that you analyze patterns and the models and call out a model when it doesn’t fit the pattern. Especially when a given model’s thoughts and vision are so off base. Does make one question the worth of any model in highly analogous patterns...
  3. If we could get suppressed cutters wouldn’t that potentially be perfect?
  4. Forecast for tonight / tomorrow for northern Hunterdon County: Tonight Rain. Patchy fog between 11pm and 3am. Low around 39. East wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Rain likely before 8am, then a chance of showers, mainly between 8am and 10am. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inc
  5. To summarize: As of this morning ( things could change), An overall warmer than normal January is likely. We will turn colder the second half of the month but at this time suppression is more likely than not and based upon that factor - potential wildcards notwithstanding - the chance for significant winter storms is greatly diminished. The blocking that is providing our cold and suppressing storms may be gone sometime in February at which time the atmosphere will revert to a more typical albeit waning La Niña March may be our best
  6. In relevant part from Walt on December 27, 2020: I have provided the American Meteorological Society definition of arctic air... I myself would probably reserve the use of the term to something like wind driven 20 degrees below normal (and only in winter in the USA). Here in the I84 corridor, i don't think of arctic air til we get wind driven near zero airmass in DJF or maybe the NWS definition of Wind Chill WARNING as it is applied in the USA.. There is no specific definition as I've written in this paragraph but I'd like to see the use of ARCTIC reduced, to where it can be of m
  7. Below is for northern Hunterdon County, NJ. Maybe we should start a “non-winter threats” topic... Detailed Forecast Today Sunny, with a high near 39. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 23. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Calm wind. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Calm wind. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Tuesd
  8. Was just noticing the same thing outside. Certainly a wintery appeal even without snow actually falling...
  9. If the 12th is able to lay down a few inches of a foundational blanket - pave the way, so to speak - for what follows, I’ll take it. If it exceeds expectations, so much the better!
  10. I've always understood Ensemble Member 8 to have a stellar reputation.
  11. With the focus on January 12th- 13th thought it might help to have a separate thread focusing on where the potential storm on the 8th - 9th might end up...
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