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About wdrag

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    Wantage NJ

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  1. Good Sunday morning everyone, Jan 17. No insight except my own interp of what the models are trying to say for I84-I95 PHL-BOS No big deal til the 25th and even then, quite a bit of uncertainty, including ptype/amounts along I80-LI southward. Regarding this coming week. No model blaring any snow but just bits and pieces of almost nothing snow. I84 corridor Today-Tuesday... a few flurries and maybe one or two short periods of minor accumulative snow showers, especially Poconos Monday-Tuesday where dustings are probable. I84-
  2. Good catch I like the conversation and my only thought with the 26th, watch the 22nd. For those who wish NIL for the 22nd.. root for the 12z/16 GEFS to back off a bit on qpf and for UKMET to not have developed some sort of short wave in the Ohio Valley to join with the northern tier ese driver. We'll have to count on this being one of the UKMET'S spurious wrong off by 300 miles on qpf axis operational cycles. It does this kind of thing...am saving the UK for qpf for 12/22 night/23 AM for a future compare. I'll be away from the computer for awhile after 1P. Hope th
  3. Snowfall reports (24a hr with all after 00z/16 via CoCoRAHS as of 830AM this Saturday morning Jan 16, 2021
  4. Maybe a trip the next 7 days to the L Ontario snow belt? Added a map of this mornings NWS forecast for an idea of where to try and an idea of amount max regions. This just goes on and on this week and looks to me like they are assured of a pretty good snow mobile season well into early February, at the least. Will not add NAEFS (just prior posts have other ensembles) maps for what looks to be wintry qpf the 25th-26th (includes OHIO), since I'd like to see this continue another 24-48 hours of cycles. Previous discussion concerns, including ripping jet across the USA, blocking suppr
  5. Good Friday morning everyone, Jan 15. Discussion centered I84 corridor and I95 PHL-BOS: Cannot excited about anything right now before the 25th, and possibly nothing til the 29th or after. Blocking suppression seems to be dominant though the 00z/15 GEPS and EPS give us some hope for the 21st-22nd. Am not convinced yet- 00z-06z/15 GFS V15-16, NAEFS are not enthused. Am hoping that maybe an inverted trough back from the Atlantic will help us sometime between the 20th-21st, if we cant get a wave of low pressure to run as far north as the Delmarva on the 21st-early 22. Tonight-Sunda
  6. Lot's of hope - my take below. Many won't trust the NAEFS cause it excludes the EPS or haven't used it everyday. I'm a GGEM fan, and the GFS is decent... I know GFS is rated better than the GGEM. Thed two ensembles are combined in the NAEFS. Am nsure what Canadian forecasters rely upon...my guess and that's a guess only... GGEM, RDPS, HRDPS, GEPS are their starters. I must be corrected if others herein know differently. Thanks. So here goes...take this with a grain of road salt and hope for some improvements in the NAEFS outlook for I95 PHL-BOS 1/21-22, 25.. It is wor
  7. This looks reasonable for an 11-15D per the multiple ensembled 500MB troughs and the constancy of the NAEFS D8-14. Hope we have a little snow cover southward expansion to ensure the modeled chill here in the NE and eventual sub20F low in NYC.
  8. Good Thursday morning everyone, Jan 14. Day by day starting with Today: Mainly on or north of I84. A period of inconsequential light snow possible high terrain between now-1P. Late Friday-Saturday night: Poconos (especially MT Cobb exit should see 1" to worst case possibly 4" of snow and a period of untreated hazardous conditions, especially Friday night and late Saturday. Meanwhile east of PA along and north of the I84 high terrain above 700 feet, periods of rain may change to wet snow at times. Amounts of an inch or so possible highest terrain west of t
  9. No significant changes to expectations from early this morning. The ensembles just don't get very excited for qpf up here after the 16th but fwiw... the 6-10day and 8-14D from CPC updated a few minutes ago are normal precip here with a definite cool down after the 23rd. For me: 21st-22nd... NAEFS shows this suppressed a bit while some of the op models attempt too intense low pressure too far north. I like the idea of a secondary wave s of LI. No matter, just have to wait that out. It's not blockbuster but it looks wintry to me along and n of I80 (except maybe LI) I
  10. 12z/13 V16 still trying back here w of the CT River to e PA/e NYS. Who knows I think it will happen due to the stength of the intact upper air trough... should be a pretty good band of showery snow under that vort, relatively steep moist lapse rates and not that much cold air at the surface. Certainly very little dry air til Sunday morning deep nw flow behind the trough axis.
  11. Quick idea of what I'm expecting in our I84 and I95 (PHL-BOS) corridor area. Wintry hazardous weather opportunities, long heralded by our long rangers for mid and late January, but so far, seemingly have been suppressed to our south, should gradually become known to everyone here in the northeast USA by the end of next week. My take below from a review of many 00z/13 ops and ensembles. Day by day starting with Thursday: I84 corridor to Boston. Mostly north of I84 but a period of light snow or flurries should occur between 5AM and 2PM Thursday. Probably inconsequential.
  12. Good Wednesday morning to all, Jan 13. Weather.US models rts around 550A EST. I think our long rangers are going to be relatively happy... flurries into NYC Sat night or Sunday Morning, maybe a period of wet light melting snow Monday in NYC, and then potential for several events late 21st through the end of the month. 1/21-22: Even if mostly wet NYC? I do think a significant wintry event for part of our area, between I80 and I90 (Ohio eastward), is coming in that two day time frame per GFS 15 and 16, GGEM, NAEFS and EPS ensemble.
  13. Sighhhh, no insight. I see the stats written on little or no snow NYC in this developing pattern (trough western USA) that seems to be changing from ne -sw to w-e southward blocked systems later in the month. 12z/12 NAEFS is basically dry (less than 5MM North of 35N eastern USA) after whatever occurs the 16th, til at least the 24th. I see the12z/12 EPS has something for the Carolinas to NYC around late 20 or 21 and that could happen but? So far, its not in the GEFS/NAEFS. N Have my fingers crossed for the NAEFS to start showing something legit soon (10 mm in 24 hours), even
  14. Good Tuesday morning everyone, Jan 12. I don't think any significant widespread hazardous wintry weather events are showing up for most of I84 and I95 corridors (PHL-BOS) prior to the 25th, nor any sustained below normal cold that lasts more than 3 days. I just don't see anything big here, at least not yet. Specifically the Poconos: A hazardous wintry snow event is likely late Friday and Saturday morning (15-16) when 1 to possibly as much as 4" may accumulate, with small additional accumulations of snow showers thereafter into Sunday. Saw the 00z/12 EC for a period of
  15. (11 Jan 2021) A problem with NCEP's data distribution is delaying maps for their models late this morning.
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