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wdrag

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. Modeling hope for I80-I78-I84, unrealistic on my part? This despite 00z/3 outlooked unfavorable AO/NAO/EPO/PNA, but here goes. Suppose it will have to be thread the needle? 500 MB trough is ensembled to return to the central3 by mid month, with a reactivating storm track out of the southern Plains-Ohio Valley. Modeling is trying to juice up the Tenneseee Valley again for a potentially active period March 14-~ April 5. This I think is in keeping with some long ranging impressions (not mine) of an active severe weather season this spring. CFS constantly has been offering snow/ice hopes dow
  2. EVERYTHING seems to be moving in the right direction more wintry direction for these 3 date groups. Keep monitoring. If you have more than a few inches of snow on your roofs, suggest considering SAFE removal...repeat SAFE removal of ice and snow from gutters-downspouts, where it's cost effective. Leak report ne PA and i suspect more where it's not making news compared to everything else going on. GFSv16 is our friend I think.
  3. Have no idea where to put all this: But here goes...some thoughts. Will add a few graphics. Monday the 22nd: Questions seem to be centered on bullseye convective snowfall of 3" in 3 hours...it's location, and whether NYC can have enough snow fall between Noon and 3PM to cool the temp enough to stick to the snowboard in CP? Modeling differs, and snowmelt during the noon hour could preclude measuring CP but an inch is an option even to BWI/PHL/NYC. Not saying that it will happen in those urban centers, but it's possible and then also capturing the observed snowfall via a report.
  4. 554A/17: Originally late last week the 12th, it looked like heavy rain and ice south to north, now its ice to snow south to north. A burst of moderate to briefly heavy snow Thursday, begins lightly between midnight and 6AM PA/NJ/se NYS Thursday much of the area, though it may delay a bit to the daylight hours north of I84. Modeling allows sleet/freezing rain to get involved near the Thursday evening rush hour and eventually back to manageable, possibly intermittent snow on Friday. Some modeling has a decent burst of snow Friday. ~Half a foot or more seems likely for much of the area northw
  5. Possibly old news: ? Regarding the national unprecedented in recent history event. From the NWS, a quick check of the top 10 national coverage's since 2005 per Greg Carbin WPC. --- As many have noted on Twitter and elsewhere over the past 24 hours, the CONUS area covered by Winter Storm Warnings is quite remarkable! That was about 1.6 million square kilometers with active warnings or, put another way, the area currently covered by Winter Storm Warnings over the CONUS is larger than the land area of Alaska. That is crazy and puts the events of these
  6. 517A: A nice solution coming (overall colder and snowier than what modeling was generally offering Friday the 12th) with a range of accumulations of 1" to possibly as much as a foot in the upper high end scenario northern PA/NJ I84 corridor. Thursday's evenings commute should be snowy for much of the area and see delays, as it readies for a possible change to ice Near I78-LI (rain coastal NJ) and then ends Friday, most of it done by sunrise Friday (but with early morning delays/cancels). Too early for me to be sure for the NYC/LI/NNJ membership but plenty of modeling close to half a foot. A
  7. 431A: Wantage NJ Still zr- 31.5. Just 54 meters out in our rural coop at 430A, power outages larger Warren County. everything solid ice here. Post event summary: SPC HREF exhibits the continuing cold bias and too robust FRAM ice accumulation output until within 12 hours of the event.Therefore too far southeast. and too heavy not rewarding good verification but ice did occur e PA much of nw NJ and all I84 corridor. I think the GFSv16 did a good job flagging 0.1-0.4" FRAM accretion where it occurred-forecast. 444A: 32.0F melting should began. Ice via ASOS radial a
  8. The value of giving yourself wiggle room on perfect prognosis. Added the actual 1157Z/16 obs that got into the verification for 12z/16. Note a touch colder in some of sheltered interior very difficult to handle the gradient. Then the EC op from 00z/16 and GFS/NAM op's from 06z/16 (their 00z versions were similar). A degree or two can make a large difference and EC was just too warm at 12z in the strong temp gradient except southern Manhattan heliport (elevated) and JFK eastward.
  9. 615A/15. Adding several graphics from the 4AM NWS forecast process inclusive of the ICE STORM WARNING coverage area (purple), the HPC HREF ensemble 1/2" of glaze expectation by 7A Tuesday (blue), WPC ensemble probs of .10 glaze (orange) by 7A Tuesday and the much lower prob of 1/2" glaze. I would expect power outages in the NWS warning area and SPC HREF Blue coverage area. IF these amounts work out- I think it will be big. Modeling doesn't necessarily guarantee freezing longer than 4AM Tuesday in nw NJ, so if it's not, then the rain is non freezing during its heaviest 3 hour period. Still t
  10. The following 1154AM/14 update is for those concerned about power Monday night. The NWS ensemble mean glaze forecast (Sunday more ing update) is out for Monday-Monday night. The blue is 1/2", the dark green is 1/4". If you're anywhere with the dark green/blue, be aware you may not lose power Tuesday morning. This guidance may shift a little northwest on Monday with the southeast edge and total amounts possibly high by 1 or 2 tenths of an inch. Still, this guidance is heftier than what was projected for NC/VA and they got hit pretty hard. Difficult Monday night ahead and results for Tuesday mor
  11. No doubt problems. While warm rain aloft conducts warmth down, and freezing rain rates too high to maximize accumulation, still worthy of monitoring for damage. Ground frozen so even IF at 33F, ground will continue icing.
  12. May have been posted earlier, but presume you noticed the 375,000 customers (a little less than a miliion people) without power just n of RDU through southern VA! This was the SPC HREF FRAM ice forecast for the 00z/13 cycle for Saturday. Not too bad. It tend to be a little heavy sometimes, and maybe a bit too cold on the south side. If you look at power outage.us and click the states... pretty impressive. That's what I'll be looking for up here in NJ/PA/NYS/CT Mon-Tue, THU-FRI.
  13. 525AM Sunday the 14th- Valentines Day! This event still looks interesting for snow lovers, despite the warm GFS OP. This is a prelim update for an event 5 days away. Definitely Advisory minimum potential, especially interior and possible Watch-Warning material interior part of the forum north of I78. Early guess on modeling...a range of 1/2-5" of snow-sleet Thursday before a change to ice North of I78 and just rain LI and south of I78 Thursday evening with rain most of the area for a short time Friday morning. Snow and ice ne PA/nw NJ se NYS/n CT. How much of each phase unknown. Here's the N
  14. Good morning, I hope Valentines have brought you chocolates , a card, maybe greetings from your pets. I would like to show you something... the observations from the Sussex Airport (KFWN) which is ~ 4 miles east of our home in Wantage NJ at a little less than 500' elevation. Our home is at 740'. These are the observations in GMT (Z) since about 4AM. Notice the I group showing up around 10 and 11z and yet no defined precipitation in progress. That I group signifies some sort of icing (could be clear sky first, or dense fog ice accretion). In this case while there was some lowere
  15. Good morning all, Am copying in info from elsewhere. 859AM/14: The GGEM/RGEM are going to win this Monday battle of no precip vs freezing precip occurring. The 06z EC and lesser so GFS, are capitulating to a two part event beginning Monday morning. The 06Z EC gets this going pretty fast before dawn Monday. Added NWS 09z/14 ensembles for .10 glaze and .25" glaze (threshold to begin power outages, the grow much larger when 0.50 glaze ) and added the 5AM view of NWS snowfall expected by Tuesday evening.
  16. I didn't see a thread for 18th-19th so dropped a couple impressions here. 825AM Saturday the 13th update: Ensembles differ (GEFS far northwest with a primary into the e Great Lakes), while the 00z/13 EPS further southeast with a coastal and therefore colder. NAEFS is in the middle and says snow or ice to start the 18th PA-NJ northward, changing to rain before ending on the 19th. My concern is another ice storm for the I84 high terrain corridor and snow pack water equivalent weight increasing as well as jammed snow and ice laden gutters. 00z/13 EPS-EC says not to worry so much as
  17. A seemingly - relatively boring advisory light mixed wintry elements event seems to start as snow or sleet near I-195 in central NJ this morning and spreads north to the I78 corridor and LI by mid or late afternoon, eventually changing to a bit of freezing rain tonight. It ends sometime Sunday, probably midday ish. After noon Sunday, temps probably close to or just above freezing with any remaining icing negligible for the remaining daylight hours. The region north of I80 in ne PA/nw NJ/extreme se NYS and s CT should see a period or two of light snow/sleet this evening into
  18. Good Saturday morning everyone - Feb 13. Potential for an ice storm across the I84 high terrain, and timing, tho w uncertainty. The GGEM/RGEM for Monday: I dont have an answer. Some modeling yes, others NO. Something to watch. Right now am advising friends its okay to travel midday Monday along I84 due to milder temps near freezing but this 00z-06z/13 GGEM/RGEM is a concern. Late Monday the 15th-Tue the 16th: a significant advisable-warnable extensive ice event coming to the I84 corridor where it may transition to snow. This is mostly ice and I foresee-
  19. Good morning everyone, . If i had to do over again... I'd lump the 13th-19th as one messy wintry period with a a wide ranging spread of solutions every day. I do think NJ/E PA will see wintry precip every day (13,14,15,16, 18, and maybe 19). At least 5 of the 7 days, with 17th being mostly likely the driest day and the 19th the least certain for wintry). NYC/CT/se NYS might escape the 13th.. Precip on the 13th,14th should be just light. late 15-16 much more important, and the biggest scoop probably on the 18th-19th. Snow axis for every ensemble cycle on
  20. 8AM Thursday the 11th. One event closing out this morning except maybe BWI and southward for which I can't comment. Spread too thin. Nothing the 12th (my prior concern but unmodeled). 13th.. appears snow or sleet develops late Saturday BWI northward, probably after dark and ends sometime Valentines Day. Details to be determined. Current modeled warming aloft near 850 MB suggests mostly sleet/freezing rain south of I84 with any snow accums in the bulk the area under 1" with 1-4" snow accumulations reserved for the I84 corridor. This is modeled as generally light and appears to be
  21. 830AM: I think ice storm warning is a possibility for the 18th-19th in parts of the higher terrain I84 corridor but far too early to highlight, since it's also possible that the modeling is too warm-allowing for more sleet/snow - future modeling to determine. Right now it's complex with predominant ice (ice to rain LI) but may end as snow everywhere? So far no sign of a closed low slowing things any further so have to go with what we see. NAEFS turns interestingly cold in the 1000-500MBthickness to wrap this event up on the 19th. Late 15-early 17... i like a colder solution tha
  22. Your call: Strongly recommend a thread as soon as possible for 15-17, and I know there is a 4 day lead time imit, but difficult for me to not see a winter hazard problem 18-19, at least just nw of I95. Ensembles show lots of snow growth inside I95, especially interior PA through and northwest of the I84 corridor and I think thats because of sleet. To me that suggests the snowfall may be a bit too much e PA/I84 corridor but potential for significant ice. No matter: I can't see avoiding problem events coming atop the snow depth as of 12z/14. I think the GFSV16 stopped running at 00z
  23. Good Wednesday morning everyone - Feb 10. No insight. When you read this tomorrow morning, it will be snowing again, or have snowed for most of the members from Baltimore to I84, but not Massachusetts. 10PM tonight- Noon Thursday: A period of snow dusts CT with a trace to 1", mainly near sunrise Thursday while PA-NJ sees some impact hazardous snowfall of 1/2-2" Scranton to NYC, while near 2" more likely Warren County down to Easton PA and finally for Baltimore please follow your advisories
  24. No insight. Just model blending. Tue the 16th: a significant snow - ice event coming. Ice NC to MD, and more snow to ice I80 northward. Potential for 6"+ snow where its all snow. Graphic already posted earlier. Thursday the 18th: more snow and ice coming I80 region northward. May even be warm enough for rain to eventually get involved just s of I84 for the 18th?
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