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Tripplephaser

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  1. Positive AMM favors El Nino-like conditions. Negative La-Nina like conditions. The red line is the relative AMM forecast. The shaded area is what happened to the AMM in past years during similar AMM conditions. The broken line represents the mean of the shaded variation. This the Relative AMM forecast. Which means the GWO will go into Nino octants mid-month. Typically that favors the formation of blocking this time of year unless there's a raging El Nino.
  2. If the GWO goes to Nino octants/+ Relative AMM this time of year, that usually translates to a blocky December provided there's no raging El Nino! Here's the latest forecast!
  3. Blocking should keep anything out west from lifting out and torching us towards Halloween weekend! Hopefully a significant cut-off can materialize! This is centered on Oct. 27th.
  4. I'd stick with the ensembles. they're deeper. Models are having fits due to a poleward extended jet but a -NAO should should keep trough from lifting out!
  5. DT is calling for the strongest trough of the season next week with a possible coastal plus another one later on in early NOV! So far the CPC calls for a cut-off under Canadian/NAO blocking in their day 11 analog outlook so let's see how this goes! https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/pcb.4454465151267375/4454463404600883/
  6. Yeah the CPS has the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook at very look confidence! There will be a poleward jet extension next weekend/early next week. But beyond that can we get a significant trough in the East towards Halloween Weekend like the GFS/GEFS is advertising? I hope so!
  7. 22/23ed and 29/30th are dates to watch for significant phasing!
  8. I hope this doesn't happen. Luckily things have not evolved exactly like Oct 2001.
  9. In the past few days models have trended towards more significant toughing over the East for late October. Even the Florida peninsula will feel Fall-like! For the past three years Florida has been shafted from any meaningful October Autumn weather. This year looks to change that with NAO blocking to boot!
  10. There are tell-tail signs that an intense trough should set up over the East by the final week of the month as the pattern retrogresses. Eventually it could even cut-off over the SE/SE coast.
  11. Yeah after some blocking in December it utterly torches us in January especially February from what I've heard!!!
  12. Models are all over the place regarding next week and beyond because of #Typhoon Nindull and what happens when it recurves and merges with the jetstream. This typhoon should bring us closer to a Positive AMM(relative that is) so one possibility I see is for a trough to dig then cut-off off the SE coast/around the Carolina's and cause a prolonged low-level easterly fetch over the Mid Atlantic/Northeast while the Southeast/Florida get cooler then average temps in an El Nino-esque setup! As Don alluded to, the high Plains/South Central Canada would get the ridge which should eventually retrograde
  13. Looks like an atypical Omega Blockish pattern will develop next week. More like an anomalous anticyclonic wave-breaking event. Ridge will be center around Chicago With two deep troughs one over the West/West Coast another around the East Coast(the latter should cut off into a bowling ball and hopefully take #Sam OTC). Afterwards the ridge should retrograde to the West which means after #Sam deep wave-breaking troughs should dip periodically over the East through Early October. The then +PNA ridge will either persist into mid-month or break down.
  14. Once the trough out west retrogrades into the East Pacific then we'll get our Fall weather. That won't happen til much later in September/Early October!
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