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ModRisk last won the day on October 27

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    North Merrick, NY

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  1. Richmond was reporting heavy snow at noon
  2. Yea Feb. I was rooting for our NC posters. Happy for our Virginia posters though.
  3. Their obs look awful if you're expecting a snow storm. At least it's prob not too icy with those temps.
  4. Here's some totals from earlier from the Greenville/Spartanburg NWS office
  5. Always loved this town. Ripping there
  6. Rain/snow line showing up well
  7. Yup. Radar is really blossoming in Richmond area.
  8. For Friday, high pressure moves in from the west and is positioned generally poleward of a strong southern-stream system developing in the south-central plains. By 00z Sunday, the developing surface low should be in the vicinity of the northern Gulf Coast. The 12z ECMWF and GFS keep this system well to the south of the region as it progresses off the coast Sunday night. To be blunt, I am not buying what the models are selling, though I do think the sharp gradient in precipitation on the north side makes physical sense (given the strength of the surface high to its north). A perusal of ensemble guidance suggests the trend has been for a slower exit stage east of the southern-stream system, and there are indications that the interaction with the upstream northern perturbation somewhere in the vicinity of the northern plains late this weekend could act to (1) force the southern-stream system farther north with time (as models tend to struggle mightily with at this time range) and (2) act to develop a secondary low somewhere upstream (west) of the southern- stream low. According to the 12z ECMWF, this second low is prevented from moving northward by a digging shortwave in eastern Canada early next week. However, the GFS is much faster with this trough, suggesting that timing uncertainty is very large with this important feature. With so many perturbations and complex interactions at play and large run-to-run variability, I tend to resort to systematic biases of each model as a starting point. At this time range, models often are too aggressive with the northern-stream kicking the southern- stream system offshore before the inevitable northwest-trending tracks within 48 to 72 hours of the event. The 12z CMC is worthy of noting its farther northwest track and has been fairly consistent with this. Given all of the above, it is premature to trim PoPs in our area Sunday afternoon through Monday night. In fact, I spread PoPs northward to account for what I suspect are model biases exhibiting their usual selves. Given the trend this cool season so far, broad-brushing the timing and expanding PoPs well northward of medium-range consensus seems to me the wise choice at this juncture.
  9. The gfs and CMC look very similar at hr 144....
  10. For our southern NJ weenies