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Rob Lightbown last won the day on May 19 2018
Rob Lightbown had the most liked content!
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322 ExcellentAbout Rob Lightbown


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- Birthday 08/04/1974
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Springfield, MA
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Weather Outlet/Member Forecast Snowmap Thread
Rob Lightbown replied to NJwxguy78's topic in Weather Discussion
Final call on this storm for Western and Central Mass. -
Weather Outlet/Member Forecast Snowmap Thread
Rob Lightbown replied to NJwxguy78's topic in Weather Discussion
My forecast for Western and Central Mass. -
January 18-19, 2020 -- Thump to Mix Obs/Photos/Discussion
Rob Lightbown replied to NJwxguy78's topic in Weather Discussion
Even last weekend's sunshine with 70 degree temperature was wild & interesting, especially seeing my dogwood tree & hydrangeas start to bud!! -
January 18-19, 2020 -- Thump to Mix Obs/Photos/Discussion
Rob Lightbown replied to NJwxguy78's topic in Weather Discussion
YES!!! I've been forecasting local weather for way, way too many years to count & I still find everyday weather interesting (even 33 with rain...lol). So, while we are "ONLY" going to see a 3 to 6 inch snowfall from this upcoming storm, the interesting part to me is that most, if not all of it will fall in about a 6 hour time window. So, 1/2" to 1" per hour snow rates likely. I very rarely find Northeast US weather boring. -
I have two Twitter handles - @crownweather for national & tropical weather @route20weather for local weather in Western & Central Mass., including Worcester and Springfield.
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January 29-30, 2018 -- Snow Event & Squall Line
Rob Lightbown replied to NJwxguy78's topic in Archived Winter Storm Threads
As @earthlight mentioned, the squalls late Wednesday afternoon could end up being quite robust. In fact, given the strong Omega & crazy lapse rates, I think this could be the bigger story over the snow on Tuesday night. Definitely looks like a low top thunderstorm profile to me. -
Ditto!! I was following him up until then & immediately stopped when I saw the crap he was tweeting the night Michael was rapidly intensifying and heading for the FL Panhandle. Those types of tweets are seriously dangerous as they could've made anyone debating whether to leave or not decide to stay.
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Look up what he tweeted in the hours before almost Category 5 Hurricane Michael made landfall on the Florida Panhandle. In summary, he dismissed the recon reports and was declaring it a barely Category 1 hurricane (I wish I were kidding). His "analysis" was based on RTMA data in the Gulf of Mexico & not on recon reports w/ dropsondes inside the actual eye of the hurricane. So, as you can deduce, my opinion of him is very low.
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December 2018 Forecast Discussion and Observations
Rob Lightbown replied to brooklynwx99's topic in Weather Discussion
And here is the link for the "red box" analogs. Still shows potential for snows up into southern New England. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2018120500&map=thbCOOP72 . -
December 2018 Forecast Discussion and Observations
Rob Lightbown replied to brooklynwx99's topic in Weather Discussion
Also, @33andrain, here is a link to the 500 mb heights for those 15 analogs. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F120&rundt=2018120500&map=thb500HGHT . -
December 2018 Forecast Discussion and Observations
Rob Lightbown replied to brooklynwx99's topic in Weather Discussion
You can look at each individual analog date for the time period in question. Also lists the top 15 analogs based on the sfc/upper air prog. Link - http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F120&rundt=2018120500 . -
December 2018 Forecast Discussion and Observations
Rob Lightbown replied to brooklynwx99's topic in Weather Discussion
CIPS Analogs continue to insist that accumulating snow with early next week's storm will make it to at least southern New England. Also, as many have already noted, the Euro EPS continues to trend northward w/ many members N of op & ens mean. My educated "guess" right now for here in southern New England is that areas along and certainly south of the Mass Pike have the best chance of seeing plowable snow amounts Monday into Tuesday of next week. Could be anywhere from a few inches to several inches of snow accumulation. -
December 2018 Forecast Discussion and Observations
Rob Lightbown replied to brooklynwx99's topic in Weather Discussion
When analyzing things this morning, I noticed that CIPS analog guidance suggests we should see a north shift in the overall track in the coming days. I could be wrong, but GFS looks WAY too suppressed. My gut feeling is that this ends up being a upper Mid-Atlantic/southern New England snowstorm rather than a I-20 "special". -
November 2018 Forecast Discussion and Observations
Rob Lightbown replied to dmillz25's topic in Weather Discussion
Wanted to add 1 thing in response to the negativity. The snowstorm on November 15th wasn't even really "seen" by the forecast guidance until that Sunday and especially Monday. In fact, guidance didn't pick up on how big of a storm it would be until the day before. In looking at the model guidance and overall pattern each and every day, one thing I have noticed is that the guidance is just that - GUIDANCE, not gospel - and this guidance has struggled mightily already this season. One thing to remember is that the guidance seems to always be too warm & too far north/west at first and -
November 2018 Forecast Discussion and Observations
Rob Lightbown replied to dmillz25's topic in Weather Discussion
Regarding Tuesday's sneaky system: Hmmm....3 km NAM slightly further SE with the snow-rain line as compared to the 12 km NAM. This makes all the difference for me here in Springfield as 12km NAM would be a 1-3" system while 3 km would bring 3-6" PLUS. Lower Pioneer Valley of Western Mass tends to get shafted by snowstorms, so I try to temper my expectations. By the way, I am forecasting the weather on a daily basis for Western and Central Massachusetts. My site for this is Route 20 Weather (https://www.route20weather.com/). Sorry, I don't post much here. I need to make this sit