Rob Lightbown

A client of mine e-mailed me a little bit ago about that buoy report. I took a look and it is SEVERAL hours old - buoy stopped reporting when it registered a 77 mph wind gust and it hadn't gotten into the eye wall yet. But hey, let's ignore real-time scientific data from inside the eye and eye wall. Yeah, I'm pretty annoyed myself.

For me, it started with Florence & the refusal to admit it was headed west while he forecasted a path towards the outer banks. Yesterday did it for me though as he was using RTMA data to diagnose wind speed rather than recon which was reporting the actual conditions with unflagged SFMR data. I pray no one that follows him lives on the Panhandle & let their guard down with those idiotic tweets & now are waking up to what we have now.

I am one who unfollowed after the 80-90 mph wind comment. That kind of crap is going to get someone killed by inaction. Noticed he still has followers defending him. Can't follow someone that spreads false information, especially false major hurricane info.

Very concerned about rapid intensification starting Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Once TD 14/Michael makes that NNE/NE turn, it likely will be caught in the upper level flow leading to very low net wind shear over it. This combined with very warm waters and ventilation from the trough of low pressure moving eastward from the Plains States could really cause it to rapidly strengthen. Right now, my forecast is for a 85-100 mph hurricane when it makes landfall on the Florida Panhandle somewhere between Pensacola and Apalachicola around midday Wednesday. With that said, a 110-125 mph hurricane cannot be ruled out when it makes landfall.

Really keeping an eye on the severe weather potential for tomorrow late afternoon and tomorrow evening here in western Massachusetts. Latest NAM & HRRR forecasting up to 1000 j/kg SB Cape and up to 200 0-1km SRH. The NAM model shows locally higher shear across the Hudson Valley and the upper Connecticut Valley. Meanwhile, the HRRR model is forecasting this locally higher shear to extend further south into the lower Pioneer Valley. Also, have concerns about thunderstorms firing out ahead of the front & this is actually something the HRRR model is hinting at. Finally, some self promotion, if I may - In addition to Crown Weather, I'm now going to be forecasting the weather locally here in western and central Massachusetts. Route 20 Weather provides weather forecasts and weather updates for Western & Central Massachusetts. The Route 20 Weather site address: https://www.route20weather.com/ Follow us on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/route20weather/ Follow us on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/route20weather .

I think the future of both Kirk & Invest 90-L are going to be kind of interesting. Kirk: Even though the guidance, as a whole, forecast Kirk to weaken into a tropical wave by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean and the Bahamas, they do show it to keep some sort of entity. The 12Z FV3-GFS model does forecast redevelopment near the Bahamas by the end of the 1st week of October. I know some are writing off Kirk, but I think it definitely warrants close attention. Invest 90-L/Leslie??: I think that this system will be around for quite a while. Guidance, as a whole, show a blocking pattern that keep 90-L spinning and meandering around for at least the next 10 days and maybe longer. In case you haven't seen the 12Z EPS guidance, some the members do forecast a scenario that brings 90-L as far west as 70-75 West Longitude with even a member diving it SW towards the Bahamas. At this point, if there is going to be a threat from 90-L, I think it'll be around Atlantic Canada, especially Newfoundland - but, we cannot totally write off this at least trying to make a break and run towards the US East Coast.

We posted an initial seasonal forecast with impact maps back on April 4. You can actually go read those thoughts at https://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2018-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast/ . Also, attached my impact forecast map for the season.

Here is a question for all group members. Should we do away completely with Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks? Or Change Them To Reflect Much Less On Numbers & Much More On Impact? During the first 2 to 3 weeks of August, I noticed a lot of posts in blogs, on forums and on social media about the Atlantic being quiet this year & various agencies lowering their numbers. There were also references to 2013 by some on Twitter & some declaring a season "cancel". So, now here we are, September 12, we have a major hurricane impact expected, a tropical storm near the Lesser Antilles, a Invest in the southern Gulf that may develop, Helene in the far eastern Atlantic & the possibility of some sort of development next week near Bermuda. From a public perspective, it is NOT a quiet hurricane season by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, I have attached a meme that is going around on Social Media on what the public thinks of our quiet hurricane season. In the end, when hurricane season is finished we may still wind up with below average numbers, but I maintain that's doing a disservice to the public who just witnessed a busy hurricane season in terms of impacts. I realize every season, it is said, "It Only Takes One to make it a bad hurricane season", but I think we are far enough in the science to be able to write a impact focused hurricane season forecast rather than one that has number of named storms attached to it. I think, in some ways, we are hurting ourselves more than helping ourselves when we forecast the number of named storms and say it's going to be a below average season. With that forecast, we are lulling the public into a sense of that it's going to be quiet, so I don't have to prepare this season. When it does get crazy busy like we are seeing right now, the public perceives it as a incorrect seasonal forecast & we are left with some saying to us, "I thought they said it was going to be a quiet hurricane season". For myself, I'm going to have to really think hard during the off-season and figure out how to present future seasonal forecasts to my clients. I know my clients like my seasonal forecasts and expect them every year, I just think doing away with forecasting the number of named storms is something that should be considered. Instead, replace it more with what areas may be at highest threat this season - something that, I think, is more tangible and useful for a lot out there. Thoughts and discussion on this is more than welcome.

Looks like the 00Z early track guidance have followed the 12Z European, 18Z GFS and 18Z FV3-GFS models on the SW shift in the track at and after Florence reaches the NC Coast. This is such an abnormal weather pattern with strong ridging that we shouldn't be surprised to see abnormal results from a hurricane. Florence already has had a unusual track to the point that climatology had to be thrown out the window. So, at this point, it would not surprise me at all to see Florence moving down the Carolina coast.

Thanks Garrett!! Some other bullet points from my forecast include: - May/early June western Atlantic tropical development is definitely possible. - Warm neutral ENSO or even a weak El Nino development late in the season. - Two areas of concern this season for a direct impact from a TS/Hurricane - #1 area from NC to southern New England. #2 area is the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. - Analog years I used as part of my forecast are: 1956, 1960, 1996, 2003, 2006 and 2011. I attached a map that includes all of the Atlantic Basin TS/Hurricane activity during those analog years. Rob Lightbown Crown Weather Services http://crownweather.com

I just posted my outlook for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season on the Crown Weather website. Overall, I think we're looking at a near average season as the ENSO phase moves into either warm-neutral or a weak El Nino. Also, it would not surprise me at all to see the formation of a western Atlantic tropical cyclone during May or June this year. My "numbers" are 14 named storms, 7 of those storms becoming hurricanes and 3 of those of hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. Am looking at an ACE this year of about 100. One thing I am actually kind of concerned about is for either a significant threat or a landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane somewhere along the Carolina, Mid-Atlantic or southern New England coast this season. Analog data for the past several months points to a significant threat to the area from North Carolina to southern New England.

Here is my favorite picture I took this winter. It was taken as our first snowfall was ending.

Our latest thoughts on total snow amounts for this storm.

Our first stab at the forecast snow amounts for the upcoming storm. Normally, I'm not this aggressive to start with, but I think we will see the guidance continue to trend westward. Also, with the very strong dynamics and intensity of the storm led me to go with some pretty high numbers to start with.