Rob Lightbown

And here is the link for the "red box" analogs. Still shows potential for snows up into southern New England. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2018120500&map=thbCOOP72 .

Also, @33andrain, here is a link to the 500 mb heights for those 15 analogs. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F120&rundt=2018120500&map=thb500HGHT .

You can look at each individual analog date for the time period in question. Also lists the top 15 analogs based on the sfc/upper air prog. Link - http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F120&rundt=2018120500 .

CIPS Analogs continue to insist that accumulating snow with early next week's storm will make it to at least southern New England. Also, as many have already noted, the Euro EPS continues to trend northward w/ many members N of op & ens mean. My educated "guess" right now for here in southern New England is that areas along and certainly south of the Mass Pike have the best chance of seeing plowable snow amounts Monday into Tuesday of next week. Could be anywhere from a few inches to several inches of snow accumulation.

When analyzing things this morning, I noticed that CIPS analog guidance suggests we should see a north shift in the overall track in the coming days. I could be wrong, but GFS looks WAY too suppressed. My gut feeling is that this ends up being a upper Mid-Atlantic/southern New England snowstorm rather than a I-20 "special".

Wanted to add 1 thing in response to the negativity. The snowstorm on November 15th wasn't even really "seen" by the forecast guidance until that Sunday and especially Monday. In fact, guidance didn't pick up on how big of a storm it would be until the day before. In looking at the model guidance and overall pattern each and every day, one thing I have noticed is that the guidance is just that - GUIDANCE, not gospel - and this guidance has struggled mightily already this season. One thing to remember is that the guidance seems to always be too warm & too far north/west at first and then gradually "cool off" and trend S & E as we get closer to the event. My take on this winter for the NE US. I think we probably will see a colder and snowier than average December, followed by a "break" of sorts for January. February into March could be particularly cold and particularly very snowy/stormy.

Regarding Tuesday's sneaky system: Hmmm....3 km NAM slightly further SE with the snow-rain line as compared to the 12 km NAM. This makes all the difference for me here in Springfield as 12km NAM would be a 1-3" system while 3 km would bring 3-6" PLUS. Lower Pioneer Valley of Western Mass tends to get shafted by snowstorms, so I try to temper my expectations. By the way, I am forecasting the weather on a daily basis for Western and Central Massachusetts. My site for this is Route 20 Weather (https://www.route20weather.com/). Sorry, I don't post much here. I need to make this site a place I visit much more often.

A client of mine e-mailed me a little bit ago about that buoy report. I took a look and it is SEVERAL hours old - buoy stopped reporting when it registered a 77 mph wind gust and it hadn't gotten into the eye wall yet. But hey, let's ignore real-time scientific data from inside the eye and eye wall. Yeah, I'm pretty annoyed myself.

For me, it started with Florence & the refusal to admit it was headed west while he forecasted a path towards the outer banks. Yesterday did it for me though as he was using RTMA data to diagnose wind speed rather than recon which was reporting the actual conditions with unflagged SFMR data. I pray no one that follows him lives on the Panhandle & let their guard down with those idiotic tweets & now are waking up to what we have now.

I am one who unfollowed after the 80-90 mph wind comment. That kind of crap is going to get someone killed by inaction. Noticed he still has followers defending him. Can't follow someone that spreads false information, especially false major hurricane info.

Very concerned about rapid intensification starting Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Once TD 14/Michael makes that NNE/NE turn, it likely will be caught in the upper level flow leading to very low net wind shear over it. This combined with very warm waters and ventilation from the trough of low pressure moving eastward from the Plains States could really cause it to rapidly strengthen. Right now, my forecast is for a 85-100 mph hurricane when it makes landfall on the Florida Panhandle somewhere between Pensacola and Apalachicola around midday Wednesday. With that said, a 110-125 mph hurricane cannot be ruled out when it makes landfall.

Really keeping an eye on the severe weather potential for tomorrow late afternoon and tomorrow evening here in western Massachusetts. Latest NAM & HRRR forecasting up to 1000 j/kg SB Cape and up to 200 0-1km SRH. The NAM model shows locally higher shear across the Hudson Valley and the upper Connecticut Valley. Meanwhile, the HRRR model is forecasting this locally higher shear to extend further south into the lower Pioneer Valley. Also, have concerns about thunderstorms firing out ahead of the front & this is actually something the HRRR model is hinting at. Finally, some self promotion, if I may - In addition to Crown Weather, I'm now going to be forecasting the weather locally here in western and central Massachusetts. Route 20 Weather provides weather forecasts and weather updates for Western & Central Massachusetts. The Route 20 Weather site address: https://www.route20weather.com/ Follow us on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/route20weather/ Follow us on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/route20weather .

I think the future of both Kirk & Invest 90-L are going to be kind of interesting. Kirk: Even though the guidance, as a whole, forecast Kirk to weaken into a tropical wave by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean and the Bahamas, they do show it to keep some sort of entity. The 12Z FV3-GFS model does forecast redevelopment near the Bahamas by the end of the 1st week of October. I know some are writing off Kirk, but I think it definitely warrants close attention. Invest 90-L/Leslie??: I think that this system will be around for quite a while. Guidance, as a whole, show a blocking pattern that keep 90-L spinning and meandering around for at least the next 10 days and maybe longer. In case you haven't seen the 12Z EPS guidance, some the members do forecast a scenario that brings 90-L as far west as 70-75 West Longitude with even a member diving it SW towards the Bahamas. At this point, if there is going to be a threat from 90-L, I think it'll be around Atlantic Canada, especially Newfoundland - but, we cannot totally write off this at least trying to make a break and run towards the US East Coast.

We posted an initial seasonal forecast with impact maps back on April 4. You can actually go read those thoughts at https://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2018-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast/ . Also, attached my impact forecast map for the season.

Here is a question for all group members. Should we do away completely with Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks? Or Change Them To Reflect Much Less On Numbers & Much More On Impact? During the first 2 to 3 weeks of August, I noticed a lot of posts in blogs, on forums and on social media about the Atlantic being quiet this year & various agencies lowering their numbers. There were also references to 2013 by some on Twitter & some declaring a season "cancel". So, now here we are, September 12, we have a major hurricane impact expected, a tropical storm near the Lesser Antilles, a Invest in the southern Gulf that may develop, Helene in the far eastern Atlantic & the possibility of some sort of development next week near Bermuda. From a public perspective, it is NOT a quiet hurricane season by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, I have attached a meme that is going around on Social Media on what the public thinks of our quiet hurricane season. In the end, when hurricane season is finished we may still wind up with below average numbers, but I maintain that's doing a disservice to the public who just witnessed a busy hurricane season in terms of impacts. I realize every season, it is said, "It Only Takes One to make it a bad hurricane season", but I think we are far enough in the science to be able to write a impact focused hurricane season forecast rather than one that has number of named storms attached to it. I think, in some ways, we are hurting ourselves more than helping ourselves when we forecast the number of named storms and say it's going to be a below average season. With that forecast, we are lulling the public into a sense of that it's going to be quiet, so I don't have to prepare this season. When it does get crazy busy like we are seeing right now, the public perceives it as a incorrect seasonal forecast & we are left with some saying to us, "I thought they said it was going to be a quiet hurricane season". For myself, I'm going to have to really think hard during the off-season and figure out how to present future seasonal forecasts to my clients. I know my clients like my seasonal forecasts and expect them every year, I just think doing away with forecasting the number of named storms is something that should be considered. Instead, replace it more with what areas may be at highest threat this season - something that, I think, is more tangible and useful for a lot out there. Thoughts and discussion on this is more than welcome.