Rob Lightbown

As @earthlight mentioned, the squalls late Wednesday afternoon could end up being quite robust. In fact, given the strong Omega & crazy lapse rates, I think this could be the bigger story over the snow on Tuesday night. Definitely looks like a low top thunderstorm profile to me.

Ditto!! I was following him up until then & immediately stopped when I saw the crap he was tweeting the night Michael was rapidly intensifying and heading for the FL Panhandle. Those types of tweets are seriously dangerous as they could've made anyone debating whether to leave or not decide to stay.

Look up what he tweeted in the hours before almost Category 5 Hurricane Michael made landfall on the Florida Panhandle. In summary, he dismissed the recon reports and was declaring it a barely Category 1 hurricane (I wish I were kidding). His "analysis" was based on RTMA data in the Gulf of Mexico & not on recon reports w/ dropsondes inside the actual eye of the hurricane. So, as you can deduce, my opinion of him is very low.

And here is the link for the "red box" analogs. Still shows potential for snows up into southern New England. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2018120500&map=thbCOOP72 .

Also, @33andrain, here is a link to the 500 mb heights for those 15 analogs. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F120&rundt=2018120500&map=thb500HGHT .

You can look at each individual analog date for the time period in question. Also lists the top 15 analogs based on the sfc/upper air prog. Link - http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F120&rundt=2018120500 .

CIPS Analogs continue to insist that accumulating snow with early next week's storm will make it to at least southern New England. Also, as many have already noted, the Euro EPS continues to trend northward w/ many members N of op & ens mean. My educated "guess" right now for here in southern New England is that areas along and certainly south of the Mass Pike have the best chance of seeing plowable snow amounts Monday into Tuesday of next week. Could be anywhere from a few inches to several inches of snow accumulation.

When analyzing things this morning, I noticed that CIPS analog guidance suggests we should see a north shift in the overall track in the coming days. I could be wrong, but GFS looks WAY too suppressed. My gut feeling is that this ends up being a upper Mid-Atlantic/southern New England snowstorm rather than a I-20 "special".

Wanted to add 1 thing in response to the negativity. The snowstorm on November 15th wasn't even really "seen" by the forecast guidance until that Sunday and especially Monday. In fact, guidance didn't pick up on how big of a storm it would be until the day before. In looking at the model guidance and overall pattern each and every day, one thing I have noticed is that the guidance is just that - GUIDANCE, not gospel - and this guidance has struggled mightily already this season. One thing to remember is that the guidance seems to always be too warm & too far north/west at first and then gradually "cool off" and trend S & E as we get closer to the event. My take on this winter for the NE US. I think we probably will see a colder and snowier than average December, followed by a "break" of sorts for January. February into March could be particularly cold and particularly very snowy/stormy.

Regarding Tuesday's sneaky system: Hmmm....3 km NAM slightly further SE with the snow-rain line as compared to the 12 km NAM. This makes all the difference for me here in Springfield as 12km NAM would be a 1-3" system while 3 km would bring 3-6" PLUS. Lower Pioneer Valley of Western Mass tends to get shafted by snowstorms, so I try to temper my expectations. By the way, I am forecasting the weather on a daily basis for Western and Central Massachusetts. My site for this is Route 20 Weather (https://www.route20weather.com/). Sorry, I don't post much here. I need to make this site a place I visit much more often.

A client of mine e-mailed me a little bit ago about that buoy report. I took a look and it is SEVERAL hours old - buoy stopped reporting when it registered a 77 mph wind gust and it hadn't gotten into the eye wall yet. But hey, let's ignore real-time scientific data from inside the eye and eye wall. Yeah, I'm pretty annoyed myself.

For me, it started with Florence & the refusal to admit it was headed west while he forecasted a path towards the outer banks. Yesterday did it for me though as he was using RTMA data to diagnose wind speed rather than recon which was reporting the actual conditions with unflagged SFMR data. I pray no one that follows him lives on the Panhandle & let their guard down with those idiotic tweets & now are waking up to what we have now.

I am one who unfollowed after the 80-90 mph wind comment. That kind of crap is going to get someone killed by inaction. Noticed he still has followers defending him. Can't follow someone that spreads false information, especially false major hurricane info.

Very concerned about rapid intensification starting Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Once TD 14/Michael makes that NNE/NE turn, it likely will be caught in the upper level flow leading to very low net wind shear over it. This combined with very warm waters and ventilation from the trough of low pressure moving eastward from the Plains States could really cause it to rapidly strengthen. Right now, my forecast is for a 85-100 mph hurricane when it makes landfall on the Florida Panhandle somewhere between Pensacola and Apalachicola around midday Wednesday. With that said, a 110-125 mph hurricane cannot be ruled out when it makes landfall.

Really keeping an eye on the severe weather potential for tomorrow late afternoon and tomorrow evening here in western Massachusetts. Latest NAM & HRRR forecasting up to 1000 j/kg SB Cape and up to 200 0-1km SRH. The NAM model shows locally higher shear across the Hudson Valley and the upper Connecticut Valley. Meanwhile, the HRRR model is forecasting this locally higher shear to extend further south into the lower Pioneer Valley. Also, have concerns about thunderstorms firing out ahead of the front & this is actually something the HRRR model is hinting at. Finally, some self promotion, if I may - In addition to Crown Weather, I'm now going to be forecasting the weather locally here in western and central Massachusetts. Route 20 Weather provides weather forecasts and weather updates for Western & Central Massachusetts. The Route 20 Weather site address: https://www.route20weather.com/ Follow us on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/route20weather/ Follow us on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/route20weather .