First fully tropical invest of the year in the Bay of Campeche with a 60% chance to develop. Recon poised to head in later today.
This could be a particularity interesting season, especially if this dud of a Nino weakens over the next 4-6 weeks.
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche has
changed little in organization since yesterday. This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico,
and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a
day or two. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico
during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if
necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.