Superstorm93

Area just north of TTN is going to really have a tough time with flash flooding during the PM commute.

Some marginal rotation near Stockton, NJ

12z CAMs look good. All differ on the timing/location a bit Should be an interesting lunch.

This is pretty standard practice for a MAJOR global model change. I'm a very weary about this upgrade, especially after the NHC pretty much begged NCEP to delay the implementation last summer due to "no statistical improvements"

Looks like we need to pour one out for the GFS I'll have a "Best of the GFS" thread later tonight or tomorrow.

Congratulations! (Sorry it's going to be inside though)

00z 3KM NAM not backing down at all. Probably a bit overdone, but a scenario close to this would likely yield some minor flooding

Oh good! Another washout day

PWATs well over 2" across the area Pretty gross day all around

First fully tropical invest of the year in the Bay of Campeche with a 60% chance to develop. Recon poised to head in later today. This could be a particularity interesting season, especially if this dud of a Nino weakens over the next 4-6 weeks. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche has changed little in organization since yesterday. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky

Its looking pretty conditional for the NYC metro area. Locations off to the south and west will have a better shot at some strong winds later today (just like the past two days)

WPC upgraded to MDT risk for flash flooding

Pretty meh from a severe standpoint, but we could see some flash flooding across portions of the area. 1-hour Flash flood guidance is less than .5" over a good deal of NE NJ. That bulge of 1.5"+ PWATs also has my attention