Superstorm93

**Hurricane Michael upgraded to a Category 5 at time of U.S. landfall** Tropical Cyclone Report: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf Some interesting excerpts: "Re-construction of the instrument’s raw brightness temperatures during the dropout period by the NOAA AOC indicates that the maximum 10-second SFMR wind estimate was 152 kt near 1707 UTC. The SFMR winds support an intensity greater than 135 kt, especially if the 152-kt value is correct and uncontaminated by wave shoaling in water about 89 ft deep. However, there is a significant caveat regarding the SFMR data, as experience during Hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Maria in 2017 suggests the possibility that the SFMR has a high bias at the wind speeds in question. Research to determine if this is the case is currently underway." "An objective analysis of the KEVX data using the GBVTD technique (not shown) suggests maximum winds of near 160 kt at 3 km during the last few hours before landfall, which would yield surface winds of 135–140 kt using the NHC reconnaissance adjustments. However, the winds in this analysis were notably lower than the 152-kt flight-level wind and the subjectively analyzed winds from radar in the southeastern eyewall. The quality of this analysis is questionable due to apparent issues in the automated GBVTD technique properly locating the center of Michael, which is critical to the wind analysis. There is also similar uncertainty produced by the maximum wind location relative to the radar site mentioned above for the subjective analysis."

Not a bad setup for some minor flooding.

00z HREF

00z HRRR has what would amount to a full-blown tornado outbreak over LA/AR/MS tomorrow afternoon. I'm still sticking to my guns about maintaining the MOD at least until 16:30 UTC

Its possible, but I think the uncertainties regarding storm mode may force the SPC to hold off until the 16:30 update tomorrow. Pretty much all of the CAMs are all exceedingly impressive for at least strong tornadoes tomorrow.

SPC holds steady with their PM Update Some lingering questions about the tornado risk remain due in part to some conditional factors yet to occur. However, it appears the tornado risk may maximize in 2 corridors. First, a diurnally focused tornado risk (primarily supercellular) across northern LA into far southern AR vicinity between 3-9pm. A second area of potential concern may focus from northeast LA near the MS River east-northeast across central and into parts of northeast/east MS during the evening into the overnight. A mix mode of supercell/QLCS or hybridization of the two within a convective line are possible. Along with damaging gusts, strong tornadoes may also occur with a few of the most intense storms. While the pre-frontal, cellular convection should diminish overnight, a semi-organized band of storms -- with embedded rotating updrafts and continued severe/tornado potential -- will move across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period.

Marble size hail. Sick storm

About to get cored

Impressive hail cores on these cells