MikeB Wx - 33andrain Jump to content

MikeB Wx

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About MikeB Wx

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  • Birthday 05/18/2001

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    North Massapequa, New York

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  1. I stated that if we start the flip by the 20th then it was time to punt the cold snowy January outlook, still not going back on that. Also made a stipulation that I was not clear enough in detail right after the post in which I was specifically talking about above average snow and BN temps. Even within that post I stated that we could still receive a decent storm if we could get the pattern to flip earlier. Even in the start of a good pattern, it needs time to mature enough in most regions to produces a SECS/MECS and not just a small storm. On top of that, the weeklies have proven to be rather inconsistent and could still move back to a crappy pattern until the last week instead of week 3. The whole point of the post was to explain that if the models were correct, even if we made it into a nicer pattern by the end of the month January would still be mostly if not all lost.
  2. Honestly, the best that it has looked all year. Now just have to hope the EPS caves, and this moves up the timeline. EPS and GEFS could not be further apart right now.
  3. As much as I hate to say it. I think it’s time to tap out. Happy tracking everyone I’ll be back around next storm.
  4. That’s with Philly,NYC,Bos not even being in the mix here. Imagine when we do get one ripping up the coast.
  5. Seems odd to me. Didn’t notice this before but the northern Vort is stronger and more closed off this run. That could be it. Defiantly don’t want to see that as we need a phase. But it’s encouraging to see the votes are much closer to eachother. But it doesn’t help that the N piece is stronger and closed off.
  6. Not sure what you see here but this looks better to me. Looks like a slightly stronger ridge out west. Faster northern Vort likely a faster phase and confluence looks a tad weaker and further east.
  7. I wonder if that’ll be worth much *narrorator* it was not worth much
  8. 18z GFS more of the same. This time goes towards the NAM with less confluence but now we have little to no phasing to turn this up the coast. Not giving up yet but seeing every model run come in and the fact that we have yet to see ONE MODEL show a decent hit in NYC makes continuing onward disheartening.
  9. I know its the 84 hour NAM but check out the Hudson Bay on the GFS vs the NAM for 6z Sunday. That energy is the confluence that may end up shunting out storm out. The GFS has the confluence slower and farther south. The NAM has the confluence a good deal further north with a more favorable tilt as well as faster timing. NAM still is not that ideal solution for NYC but it's definitely a good deal closer than the OP models. But then again we are talking the max range NAM here. Also of note here the NAM looks more favorable for a clean phase than the GFS. Although the NAM is closed off, it has a slower storm and a faster northern vort. This slower albeit cleaner evolution could end up wasting some of our best dynamics, however that may need to be sacrificed if you want snow in NYC.
  10. We are getting into the timerabge today tomorrow and Friday where we need to see big changes. We want to at least hold our ground, bad move when we see things moving backwards.
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