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Wxoutlooksblog

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Wxoutlooksblog last won the day on June 15

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  1. So far, this has more been the prevailing picture and has tended to abbreviate any heat here. We'll see which look actually unfolds. WX/PT
  2. On tonight's GFS, there is some 100 degree heat for NYC itself around July 14th, perhaps more than one day of it. The heat for NYC Metro on this extremely hot GFS run is modeled to begin around July 11th and quickly evolve into extreme heat on the 13th and would probably continue 4-6 days as currently modeled. We'll see if future modeling is consistent with this solution. WX/PT
  3. Getting ready to rumble here in Douglaston Queens while I'm not sure if the worst of this moves over us or stays to our west/ southwest. WX/PT
  4. Storms popping and intensifying in many locations now. A very active day. WX/PT
  5. Latest maps are to me advertising stormy but not so much heat. The end of the Euro looks hot. WX/PT
  6. NYC area folks seem so far to be losing out today not only on heat but as a result of lackluster daytime heating and abundant cloud cover on the probability of severe weather later on. We'll see what happens as the afternoon progresses. Temperature wise it now seems we're lucky if we get to 85 or 86. WX/PT
  7. While it is very warm we only had one isolated 90 degree day in June so far. NYC/Central Park may see another 90 degree either today or tomorrow, Sunday, but I believe the main weather story of the up and coming week will be the thunderstorm activity. While thunderstorm activity generally does not provide drought relief to the area at large, the next 7 days starting with today Saturday may feature some severe thunderstorm activity which could feature locally heavy rains, strong damaging winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and possibly hail. An isolated tornado or two is not out of the question. Additional severe weather threats seem most noted according to the guidance for Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. WX/PT
  8. I'm still not seeing Manhattan (NYC/Central Park) receiving the heat. This coming week now we have two very warm days coming up, Tuesday and Wednesday. The very hot weather seen yesterday on the GFS is now marginally hot and only July 1st-4th and is currently depicted as such on the 18Z run. on the 12Z run any episode of heat was even more abbreviated. Again, I do not think Central Park hits 90 this month. And I suspect that next month they will hit it once or twice. I'm just not seeing a heatwave as the mean ridge remains out west so that whenever it builds east to affect coastal sections of NYC a cold front arrives to cut it short. For sections of interior central and Northern New England and upstate NY I believe there will continue to be occasional 3-5 day heatwaves. WX/PT
  9. The Euro vs. the GFS. They are light years apart. The GFS now having two 90 degree days next week, Tues, Wed. Then having 3 consecutive days of extreme heat (near or over 100) June 29th, 30th, and July 1st. The Euro has near to slightly below normal temperatures for most of its run last night. WX/PT
  10. It's pathetic here in NYC where today, tomorrow, and Saturday we may reach 80 to 83 degrees. Even in Boston temperatures should reach the mid-upper 80s. In interior sections of New England and upstate NY temperatures around 90. Here in NYC, we might have to wait until Monday or Tuesday to even have just a shot at 90, but it's no guarantee that's for sure. WX/PT
  11. Yes, the end of the GFS tonight is a scorcher, well into the 90s for all of the notheastern U.S. We'll see if it looks anything like that in three or four days. WX/PT
  12. Personally, I do not subscribe to indices long range forecasting. Analog forecasting if done well can give an idea of what pattern you might see. But there could be a pattern, much like what we have now, where Vermont, New Hampshire (also considered the "east coast states") along with interior Maine and southeastern Canada receive the hottest weather relative to normal in the east and not the big cities of the northeast. That kind of pattern would probably yield the warmest anomalies for the east coast sparing the details. WX/PT
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