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Wxoutlooksblog

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Wxoutlooksblog last won the day on June 15 2020

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  1. IMO, this is the one. If not this one, maybe later in Feb. But of this series of storms, this is the one to watch most closely. WX/PT
  2. One cannot deny the potential of overrunning snows on Tuesday though as of now, I would think 8" would be a little high. But any snow is a big deal this season. WX/PT
  3. Are you talking about Tuesday or late week/weekend? It does seem the models track the Tuesday system a little closer. I would think there is now certainly a chance of snow in the NYC Metro Region, though as of now, it does not seem like a major storm for us on Tuesday. An inch to possibly several inches is an outside chance at this point. Beyond that time-frame, the pattern still seems to favor a storm track further south, and even with the Tuesday system I would not be surprised to see the track shift again to further south. WX/PT
  4. I still believe that the strongest signal in this pattern is for most of the storm activity over the next 6-10 days to be to the south of the NYC Metro Region. The guidance with the possible exception of tomorrow's 00Z GFS has continued to trend in that direction. We know how shaky the GFS can be at this time-frame changing from run to run. After 6-10 day time-frame, things may or may not change to more favorable storm tracks. We shall see. WX/PT
  5. Just adding my two cents, given the overall pattern, I think one or another degree of suppression is a bit more likely than more northern/western and less organized solutions. In this case, suppression *might* include a scenario which would bring some frozen precipitation to the NYC Metro Region. On the other hand the whole thing could stay entirely too far to our south and east as well. WX/PT
  6. Yes and a million model runs over which time the current solutions can all come completely undone. WX/PT
  7. The next one around the 22nd-23rd maybe. WX/PT
  8. There's little to no high latitude blocking at this point. Later in the forecast period there may be some but most likely in the wrong place. Never on any of these maps do we see a really genuine source of cold where it should be for a snowstorm. I could be proven wrong, of course, but I doubt you're going to see a storm here in the NYC Metro with the right track and cold enough temperatures before January 11th. WX/PT
  9. I agree, not normally. But do you see anything "normal" occurring? My point, some of the storms which would logically/normally go out to sea, might not. WX/PT
  10. Because of this, Dec 16-17 was probably not the last significant wintry event here for winter 20-21! WX/PT
  11. The point is that the pattern remains ripe for threats. There's a ton of energy pouring in off the Pacific into the Pacific NW, down from Canada and into the Plains and Gulf States, eventually one of these has a chance of timing right to allow another significant or better snow threat here. There was another threat before this one. WX/PT
  12. This ought to trend colder, enough-so, maybe maybe not. WX/PT
  13. In most of the very snowy winters in NYC we skip a month at one time before the next event. Looking back, it is rare that you find a major snow event in Dec, Jan, Feb, and March. I think the only season that saw that happen that I can remember was 95-96. I do not believe there is another one in recorded history. We could have NO major event January and the current pattern if it is as locked in as it now appears to be could support that idea with the next major snow event being in Feb. and *maybe* another one in March. WX/PT
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