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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. I forgot that you track any flakes at all here even after the first flakes of the season have fallen, accumulations not necessary. This is a fast moving frontal system and a wave if any will be weak fast moving and flakes if any one fall for about an hour and more than likely not accumulate. Also I forgot that a large majority of posters here are from interior sections of New Jersey, upstate NY, and inland portions of Connecticut for whom when 95% of people see no accumulation/s a very light coating on the windshield or the grass is more likely. WX/PT
  2. Flurries? There not going to be much of anything. I'm 69yo been doing the weather for 65 years. I'm not going to get excited over a few flakes on the back end of a frontal passage. And I think that particularly in coastal sections, seeing that is even doubtful, certainly less than 50/50 probability. WX/PT
  3. I will say this again, however, there is some potential the 15th-20th time-frame and just beyond because there is some really cold air. But the storm track as depicted so far, ugh! WX/PT
  4. To me it looks like a whole lotta rain and not much else. Yes, once fronts and storms pass to our north and east it does turn really cold for two or three days. But 50/50 lows never get locked in which signals no genuine high latitude blocking, no -NAO, and the primary storm track is into the Great Lakes. WX/PT
  5. The air out ahead of it is not very cold so temperatures would be marginal at best and especially for coastal sections that doesn't usually work out well in December. WX/PT
  6. IF it is to be snow here, it would be the next storm system in this series. It's on the South Dakota/Nebraska border at 240 hours on the ECMWF. WX/PT
  7. Actually there is some potential December 15-20th, but odds on favor it's either overly suppressed dry and cold or more likely ends up hooking over us or just to our n and w and ends up wet not white. But the potential in this time period comes and goes then comes again rinse and repeat. We'll have to see where these storm systems end up going. The computer modeling being horrendous and getting worse, not better, doesn't help. WX/PT
  8. I'm really not at all at this point interested in December 13th-14th period which I think will probably end up mostly cold and dry. WX/PT
  9. In the NYC Metro Region I think we'll be seeing snow at varying rates, sometimes heavy through and possibly a little beyond midnight. It should accumulate 2-6" in most spots. WX/PT
  10. I'm thinking 2-5" most of that coming tomorrow and tomorrow night. There could be a coating to an inch coastal sections and around an inch or two inland n and w today. WX/PT
  11. This is NOT the kind of storm which brings those kinds of amounts to most parts of the immediate NYC Metro Region especially coastal sections. I would be very surprised to see those amounts unless the current modeling of how this storm system evolves changes significantly. WX/PT
  12. The euro is predictably much further south and a hair faster and suggests more snow but not big amounts for parts of the NYC Metro Region. I'm still a bit skeptical. Tomorrow's model runs are huge. Watch for trends. I'd particularly be curious about later trends of the Euro and the UKMET along with the NAM/3KM/12KM nams. WX/PT
  13. UKIE doesn't look good and increases the threat of more rain than snow especially for coastal sections. Then you might have a situation (common in these patterns) where all that's left for NYC and points east are some flurries and possibly a heavy snow shower or two leaving a quick temporary coating on grassy surfaces at best. WX/PT
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