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Wxoutlooksblog last won the day on July 4 2019

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  1. Here in the NYC Metro Region I think we're looking at widespread 2-5" amounts with many locations reporting 3-5". WX/PT
  2. As I've said earlier, a decent thump for most areas that the precipitation would have to arrive earlier not later. The trend has been to slow the arrival of the precipitation here which means the the odds favor more rain and much less frozen precipitation. Indeed for the coast, almost none. WX/PT
  3. If this set up were to yield measurable snow for our region, chances which appear to be increasing, I suspect it would start late Friday night. The slower it moves in the more time the cold air has to get out of the way. WX/PT
  4. I'm skeptical that it occurs particularly near the coast and in the city. The initial tracks of these Miller B's are too far north, winds s-se. Temperatures will probably trend upward on future guidance. WX/PT
  5. Finally, signs are increasing for some minor pattern adjustments which could signal a better chance at colder weather and potential snow beyond day 7. A little bit of ridging out west days 6-10 followed by more prolific ridging out west from the 19th/20th onward. Then again, this doesn't mean anything certain except that east coast regions could possibly turn colder and stay cold for a longer duration which could increase the chances for significant snowfall here. Nothing certain just yet. WX/PT
  6. This one's a Miller Lite, not a Miller B. It will produce (lightly) only for southern NJ. Others will see less than an inch if any accumulation at all. WX/PT
  7. Any observations over extreme inland sections with regards to what is probably a band of thunderstorms moving through ne Pa and interior southeastern NY State and portions of the Catskills in the next hour or two? WX/PT
  8. There's not going to be much of anything if anything at all during that time-frame. There should be some better chances as we get to the January 18th-31st time-frame assuming possible changes in the overall pattern do occur. WX/PT
  9. The case in favor of a major snowstorm (Jan 7th or so) I think is a weak one. Last night's runs were out of nowhere on 3 models and so far disappearing on one of the three. By tonight I suspect the idea of a MECS will have disappeared on at least 2 of the 3 models. The GGEM may persist with it as it often does once the other major models are well out of the idea. This current pattern is highly unlikely to allow for much of an east coast storm particularly while introducing a colder air mass into it. WX/PT
  10. I think the outlook for snowlovers right now is bleak. The only thing we really have going for us is that's it's still only December 27th and 3/4 of the winter season has yet to go. We continue to see potential storms on various model runs only for them to end up too far south or without any cold air to work with. Cold high pressure, whatever little of it there is, is extremely temporary in and out and the flow is so fast from west to east that it really doesn't allow for storm systems to develop or intensify along the east coast. If we are to get anything in the current pattern it would probably have to be from a weak wave of low pressure moving e-ne quickly along a frontal boundary. Even that is unlikely without much if any cold air available. Look for this pattern to change at least somewhat during the end of the second week or during the third week of January. WX/PT
  11. We've got to get more high latitude blocking or these are all going to be MOSTLY rain particularly in coastal sections. IMO right now the next serious threat is Dec. 27th-28th. Dec. 17-18th at least at the moment looks like toast. WX/PT
  12. Thank you. I think there are two time-frames to watch really, Dec. 16-19th, and Dec 26-29th. In either or both of those time-frames I think we could get an at least decent snowstorm. WX/PT
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