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Wxoutlooksblog

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Wxoutlooksblog last won the day on June 10 2018

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  1. I'm beginning to sense we may yet again be in for a late spring and summer season featuring some extremely wet weather. WX/PT
  2. I am slightly intrigued by this look. Odds are it's overly suppressed or gets too wrapped up but it's tempting. WX/PT
  3. I like the map but not sure about the South Shore of LI and coastal NJ where you may be a little high due to mixing issues. WX/PT
  4. Really getting more impressed by the minute with Sunday night into Monday. WX/PT
  5. The pattern right now is loaded. For the first time this season, I'm really expecting a series of winter storms, maybe not superstorms, but quick hitting snow dumpers one after another, maybe lasting until March 21st or 22nd. WX/PT
  6. Pulled from my facebook just now: "For the NYC Metro Region, a series of fast moving low pressure systems from west to east across the country will continue to encounter much colder than normal air masses as they move into and across our region over the next ten to fourteen days. We have had a relatively easy winter, but the latest maps do indicate Old Man Winter making up some for what has been missing thus far this season. Now these are not big nor'easters of the type which develop as a result of major cyclogenesis along the eastern seaboard but rather nickel and dime fast clipper type systems whose effects do not last long but if it is cold enough they can drop a quick 2-4" of snow as they pass through. One will be moving through late tonight and drop whatever it is able to on us before 7AM tomorrow, probably less than an inch. But the NAM mesoscale model shows the next one moving across our area late tomorrow night dropping perhaps as much as 2-4" with greater amounts possible not far to our south. The next of these is late Sunday into early Monday, perhaps a somewhat more potent system but temperatures may also be just a tad bit higher so accumulations at this point are questionable as there could also be some rain and sleet with that system. Maps showed the potential for extreme cold for a good part of next week following the Sunday night storm system with overnight low temperatures in the teens to around 20 and daytime highs in the 20s to around 30, very cold for early March. The next storm system in the parade was timing out for around March 8th-9th with perhaps the last of this series somtime around March 11th. Bundle up!!" WX/PT
  7. The winter storm potential in early March now appears will most likely be over suppressed, at least that's currently my gut feeling. But the maps will keep changing. So far, no convincing evidence the firehose jet off of the Pacific is going to let up. WX/PT
  8. I mostly agree with this and also look for an extended period of storminess with near to below normal temperatures for much of March and possibly into April prior to a warmer than average late spring and early summer season. In spite of near to below normal temperatures and storminess during March/early April, I think there could be a few isolated very warm days during that time. WX/PT
  9. While it's possible this happens and the pattern is now definitely starting show signs of transitioning into a better pattern for snow starting with tomorrow's quick thump, I really doubt the European model persists with this storm in future runs. I am somewhat more optimistic about the first week of March but we will still have to watch out for the possibility of over suppression. I think March will become very stormy, not necessarily snowy, but maybe. WX/PT
  10. Just posted on my facebook: For the NYC Metro Region, what could really end up being the biggest snowfall of the winter season is possible tomorrow afternoon. Low pressure will develop over the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight and move quickly northeastward late tonight and tomorrow. Out ahead of this low pressure system will be a large area of warm advection overrunning precipitation which at least at the start will be in the form of snow. Snow should overspread our region by noon tomorrow and accumulate 2-5" before mixing with a changing to sleet tomorrow evening and then to rain tomorrow night. There is no cold air mass behind this system so once the low pressure moves across the area tomorrow night and over the coastal waters to our north and east Thursday, temperatures should warm into the upper 40s or lower 50s. Rapid melting should continue Thursday night and Friday so any snow which accumulated should be gone by sometime this weekend as another storm system threatens the area with rain by Sunday. WX/PT
  11. While I remain pessimistic about any sizable snowstorms affecting the NYC Metro Region the remainder of this season, I cannot rule out an inch or two of wet snow with the fast moving system tomorrow night early Monday and as of now I will acknowledge that the maps for the first week of March have a more wintry feel to them than any maps I've seen all season for January & February. WX/PT
  12. HP is moving out. Most of us will get to 33/34 degrees this evening. There could be a few places locally where the temperature at the surface gets stuck at 32 and yes perhaps stuck at 31 in some spots north and west. WX/PT
  13. It changes to rain over most of the NYC Metro Region. WX/PT
  14. Upper levels of the atmosphere getting toasty fast. I hope I'm not driving on an ice skating rink in two hours. WX/PT
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