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Wxoutlooksblog last won the day on June 10 2018

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  1. The winter storm potential in early March now appears will most likely be over suppressed, at least that's currently my gut feeling. But the maps will keep changing. So far, no convincing evidence the firehose jet off of the Pacific is going to let up. WX/PT
  2. I mostly agree with this and also look for an extended period of storminess with near to below normal temperatures for much of March and possibly into April prior to a warmer than average late spring and early summer season. In spite of near to below normal temperatures and storminess during March/early April, I think there could be a few isolated very warm days during that time. WX/PT
  3. While it's possible this happens and the pattern is now definitely starting show signs of transitioning into a better pattern for snow starting with tomorrow's quick thump, I really doubt the European model persists with this storm in future runs. I am somewhat more optimistic about the first week of March but we will still have to watch out for the possibility of over suppression. I think March will become very stormy, not necessarily snowy, but maybe. WX/PT
  4. Just posted on my facebook: For the NYC Metro Region, what could really end up being the biggest snowfall of the winter season is possible tomorrow afternoon. Low pressure will develop over the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight and move quickly northeastward late tonight and tomorrow. Out ahead of this low pressure system will be a large area of warm advection overrunning precipitation which at least at the start will be in the form of snow. Snow should overspread our region by noon tomorrow and accumulate 2-5" before mixing with a changing to sleet tomorrow evening and then to rain tomorrow night. There is no cold air mass behind this system so once the low pressure moves across the area tomorrow night and over the coastal waters to our north and east Thursday, temperatures should warm into the upper 40s or lower 50s. Rapid melting should continue Thursday night and Friday so any snow which accumulated should be gone by sometime this weekend as another storm system threatens the area with rain by Sunday. WX/PT
  5. While I remain pessimistic about any sizable snowstorms affecting the NYC Metro Region the remainder of this season, I cannot rule out an inch or two of wet snow with the fast moving system tomorrow night early Monday and as of now I will acknowledge that the maps for the first week of March have a more wintry feel to them than any maps I've seen all season for January & February. WX/PT
  6. Wxoutlooksblog

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    HP is moving out. Most of us will get to 33/34 degrees this evening. There could be a few places locally where the temperature at the surface gets stuck at 32 and yes perhaps stuck at 31 in some spots north and west. WX/PT
  7. Wxoutlooksblog

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    It changes to rain over most of the NYC Metro Region. WX/PT
  8. Wxoutlooksblog

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    Upper levels of the atmosphere getting toasty fast. I hope I'm not driving on an ice skating rink in two hours. WX/PT
  9. Wxoutlooksblog

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    Let's see how well any virga accumulates and how quickly the lower levels warm as east-northeasterly winds increase in velocity. Also, vertical velocities are what I would call deficient. Do not be surprised if precipitation rates fall short of expectations especially while the surface and lower layers of the atmosphere are still 27-32 degrees. WX/PT
  10. The pattern changes to me do not look significant enough to tilt the scales. I still think odds are against anything major for the city this season. I think the tendency will be for us here to see cold/dry weather continue to alternate with milder wet weather. WX/PT
  11. Wxoutlooksblog

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    The GFS trended warmer this afternoon. The problem you have is that NAM has been by far the most accurate model by far with these storm systems this year. I have no reason to believe that better accuracy is suddenly going to change tomorrow. WX/PT
  12. Wxoutlooksblog

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    As you go west of NYC where a slightly thicker more dense layer of cold air may hold on a little longer, there could be a few isolated areas where snow could last a couple of hours and accumulate 1-2". But near the coast in and east of NYC itself, 2" accumulations are highly unlikely. WX/PT
  13. As I expected, NAM just got warmer. WX/PT
  14. Wxoutlooksblog

    Snow/Sleet/ZR/Kitchen Sink 2/10-2/12 Event

    I am astonished at the forecast I'm hearing and at the hype. 1"/hour rates of snow and 2-4" accumulations. On NAM fous data, already for the time-frame when the precipitation begins to fall, the temperature at LGA at T5 the temperature goes from -2C to +3C. That's water falling through a thick frozen layer to a frozen surface, sleet and/or freezing rain, not snow. By 30 hours, all the layers are at or above 0. Only under the most exceptional circumstances do you get significant snow from that--by that I mean extraordinary vertical velocity and winds from the north-northeast. But winds here are 090 off of the relatively warmer ocean waters which means, the Fous thermal profiles are likely to continue trending warmer if anything. If there is any snow in the NYC Metro Region, I believe it will last for under 90 minutes....if there is ANY, and I wouldn't be surprised if 1) There were none and it were all sleet, or 2) If snow lasted for an hour or less. There could be, however, a problem with ice during this storm for a limited time, tomorrow morning possibly into the early afternoon. WX/PT