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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. Wxoutlooksblog

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    The European model called that idea into question. WX/PT
  2. Wxoutlooksblog

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Some sun tomorrow most likely. WX/PT
  3. Wxoutlooksblog

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Just wait until Friday. I think we're going to feel extremely autumnal. WX/PT
  4. Wxoutlooksblog

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Looking at the maps and really I'm hard pressed to find a model that disagrees, the cool air behind each cold front now on the maps modifies dramatically before it gets to us. And each cool push is relatively short-lived lasting about two or three days at the most. As I see it, we remain in an above normal temperature pattern for the next two weeks or longer. That doesn't mean we won't be gradually getting cooler, we will. But we will still average out above normal for at least another 10-14 days IMO. WX/PT
  5. Wxoutlooksblog

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    Timing will spare most coastal locations of the degree of severe weather which has occurred to our north and west. WX/PT
  6. Wxoutlooksblog

    September 2018 Discussion and Observations

    Cold front comes through, winds shift to light variable mostly n then ne, low level clouds/marine layer from off the Atlantic return. Rinse repeat for the next 3-5 weeks. We're already in this for 2 weeks already. I think it lasts through October maybe into November with an extremely gradual drop in temperature. Higher than normal heights split the country with a relatively flat flow and occasionally heights lower in the Plains or the Rockies. It's going to be a while IMO. WX/PT
  7. Wxoutlooksblog

    September 2018 Discussion and Observations

    I do think this winter will be EXTREMELY active and stormy but I'm less confident in temperatures along the east coast. I could see it going either of two ways one be cold/stormy/snowy and the other being warm/wet depending on exactly where the trough in the eastern half of the CONUS sets up. WX/PT
  8. Wxoutlooksblog

    September 2018 Discussion and Observations

    I'm not at all sold on a cool/cold October. I think we'll see temperatures averaging close to if not just a bit above normal. But we'll have some brief moments of chill. But I do think the pattern of high pressure sliding to our north continues and that it lines up well with near to perhaps above normal precipitation and many cloudy days with low level moisture from off of the Atlantic keeping temperatures down. I think we will see a switch to a much colder weather regime during mid November. WX/PT
  9. As of now as previously, I believe the UKMET/ECMWF camp is probably going to be the more accurate of the two and I'm impressed with how the European is persistent with the ridge which I believe largely sticks around with various subtle changes through most if not all of September. And that would mean, we'll be busy tracking these storms for quite a while yet. WX/PT
  10. We are getting close to honing in on a southeastern N.C. landfall. WX/PT
  11. Euro landfall extreme southeast corner of North Carolina near the border of S.C. , almost right on it. WX/PT
  12. But it is slightly north of where it was on its last run. WX/PT
  13. No, I'm here in Queens, and I definitely favor the more southwestward tracks at this time. I base this on the strength of WAR. And I really do not see much change in that regard. The ECMWF has been emphasizing the WAR along with the UKMET, and they both continue to. They're overall the most accurate models and seem to be on the same page. I have no reason to go against it, particularly given the pattern we've been in. WX/PT
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