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Wxoutlooksblog last won the day on September 10

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  1. Going by today's modeling it looks like fresh autumn air masses start to arrive here following the cold frontal passage on the night of September 22nd. There'll still be some brief warm-ups as these air masses exit the region but I think we are going to be leaving our prolonged summer pattern. Could the summer pattern return for a few days at some point in October? Sure. We'll just have to wait and see. WX/PT
  2. Yes, there may not be a real pattern change until later on but it does look to me as though the air masses behind the weakening cold fronts start to become noticeably albeit gradually colder starting around that time--the 22rd-25th or so. I think around then the night-time lows will tend to drop regularly below 60 and day time highs on the warm days will be more mid-upper 70s rather than 80s. And probably there continues to be a gradual step down though we still cannot rule out another brief very warm day or two. WX/PT
  3. I think you'll see some autumn air masses from around the 24th on. WX/PT
  4. I was putting the Farmer's Almanac post in quotes, don't know what happened.. WX/PT
  5. If you took climate change out of the equation, I have little doubt this would happen. I think climate change will temper the cold and that air masses while cold will not be quite as cold as we've seen during some our coldest winters. WX/PT
  6. It may but it could weaken slightly. But it's not going to fall apart. Even if they weaken slightly, they'd be strong enough to cause some flash flooding locally during the overnight or early Thursday. Severe weather is also possible. WX/PT
  7. Labor Day's 00Z GFS trended significantly warmer than previous runs and the 00Z ECMWF continues to advertise above normal temperatures starting shortly prior to the middle of this month. I think we're going to have a warm second of September with perhaps a couple of hot days. WX/PT
  8. The GFS lost the mid month heat but the Euro has it (see below). Don't be surprised if the GFS brings it back. Also, looking at the NCEP 8-14 day discussion--they have us heating up as well. WX/PT
  9. It looked like near to slightly below temps for 7-10 days then back to above normal for mid September. WX/PT
  10. Major uptick in lightning frequency over western LI now. I hope there is not a tornado locally. But there is intensification right now of cells moving into Brooklyn and western LI. WX/PT
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