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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. I hope not too many people weren't fooled by the very warm to hot forecast maps generated by the models over this weekend. At least for the immediate NYC Metro Region, I am not at all looking for a terribly hot or much warmer than normal end of June or first half of July. WX/PT
  2. Totally agree. And even though the 00Z GFS shows the heat for the first several days of July, I remember when it showed it for June 24-26th. In other words, just wait until the time-frame gets closer and the heat will be GONE. The back-up in the Atlantic with the cyclonic flow aloft and at the surface over southeast Canada is a fixture for most of the summer. Could it relax for a short time at some point in the second half of July? Yes, but then the same old pattern will reload and persist. Earlier I said 5-10 90+ days for NYC this summer but now I'm saying 1-3 of them. WX/PT
  3. This is correct. I do not see much 90+ heat here if any any time in the near future. WX/PT
  4. IMO most of the activity today and for most of tomorrow is not for the immediate NYC Metro area and points east. A few showers and/or storms may wander eastward into the marine air mass, but odds are most of them do not hold together well and arrive, if they do, in a much weakened status. WX/PT
  5. I thoroughly agree with this and it will probably translate to a very active thunderstorm season around here with plenty of severe threats. Also interesting how the ECMWF flip/flopped completely today at 12Z now showing a trough by 240 hours over the Rockies and a huge ridge in the east. I'm not quite ready to buy it but it could happen and would signal at least temperature-wise a huge shift from near/below temps to above normal temperatures for at least several days and maybe longer. WX/PT
  6. For the NYC Metro Region, I continue to think that this summer we'll see a continuation of this extremely wet pattern with both high overnight minimum and lower than expected daytime maximum temperatures much of the time. I do think we'll have some 3-4 day stretches of nicer weather. Temperatures should average near or slightly below or above normal but I do think the number of 90+ degree days at Central Park will be on the lower side--probably in the range of 6-10 with the bulk of those days coming in the middle of July. I do not think the current pattern is going to change significantly but temperatures will warm seasonally as we get into late June and July. WX/PT
  7. Really, several models going in entirely different directions today with regards to the second half of June. The ECMWF persists with a flatter flow and if anything, a bit more ridging out west and near to perhaps slightly below normal temperatures in the northeastern U.S. while the FV3-GFS is showing a massive ridge building in the entire eastern half of the CONUS. The GFS is on the other hand somewhat of a middle ground but more towards the hotter solution if anything. We'll just have to wait and see which idea is correct. For now, the pattern continues to be an extremely wet one. WX/PT
  8. If you like thunderstorms and severe weather, this is your summer in the NYC Metro and points not far to the south, this season. WX/PT
  9. Getting ready to rock here in eastern Queens. WX/PT
  10. North Fork of LI about to get raked first from an isolated strong to potentially severe cell, then by a line of storms dropping south out of central and southern New England. Why do I have a feeling that the North Fork may once again may be the severe wx capitol of the NYC Metro Region this summer season much like a couple of summers ago. WX/PT
  11. No, that was a different storm than the one I was referring to which has drastically weakened and shriveled up into not much more than a ten minute cloudburst as it hones in on a small part of the lower Hudson Valley and Westchester Cty. WX/PT
  12. Not a well organized line of storms but some isolated to scattered very strong to locally severe storms moving across portions of eastern PA and into western NJ right now. One of these even has prompted tornado warnings as it moves from west to east. I doubt it will make it to NYC and coastal sections at this level of intensity but we'll see. WX/PT
  13. While I've been one of the hottest posters, I'm not sure I'd characterize a heatwave as imminent or likely. Remember, heatwave = 3 or more consecutive days of 90+. WX/PT
  14. At this point at least, I have no opinion except to say that I think it's noteworthy that the European model has backed off of the heat. Historically, however, prior to cooler/wetter summers and I do believe that the evidence supports this being one of those (coming up), there often is some formidable early heat in our area usually near, just prior to, or just after Memorial Day and usually it follows a period of unusually cool damp weather. Eventually I do think we'll see a day or two or three of that sort of thing. WX/PT
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