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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. Wxoutlooksblog

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    We'll see what happens over the next few days and things certainly could change, but the pattern being shown on most of the models tonight is not one which is favored to leave much if ANY snowfall in the NYC Metro Region for the next two weeks at least and almost all of the cold air is locked up in Canada. The Pacific is terrible. I hope we can fix this. WX/PT
  2. Wxoutlooksblog

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Still, no change yet in my thoughts regarding the NYC Metro Region. I believe most likely is a suppressed storm track, we stay dry. Second most likely is that if it comes further north, we go over to rain or a mix. But I don't think this one is coming north. WX/PT
  3. Wxoutlooksblog

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Odds are if it's coming north as the CMC shows coastal sections including NYC are going to see lots of rain. Then again, my most likely scenario remains a suppressed track well south and east of us. Second most likely a northward track bringing rain to the coast and the big cities. Really little if any change in my thoughts from a night or two ago. The antecedent cold HP is well to the east of us. WX/PT
  4. Wxoutlooksblog

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    I do not think it's a good pattern for a snowstorm. The Pacific is terrible. Pattern across the CONUS too flat west to east, we have not even yet seen real cold last more than three days which tells you something. Yes, temperatures are below normal because there are always cold fronts busting through, but the cold cannot get locked in. There's no blocking to lock it in. WX/PT
  5. Wxoutlooksblog

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Right you are my mistake. Long day. This is the left hook which is probably the second most likely scenario. WX/PT
  6. Wxoutlooksblog

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    This ten day pattern IMO has snow lover frustration written all over it. It's a flat fast progressive flow which means that whatever happens, you cannot lock the cold air in over the Great Lakes and New England. So the antecedent HP inevitably ends up either someplace east of New England or the mid Atlantic. This means that if the storm really blows up the odds would favor it hooking too far to the left bring rain or snow to rain with southeasterly winds. Or, if the westerlies inhibit development and the shortwaves as a result do not properly phase (high probability) the thing just sweeps eastward very quickly, has trouble gaining latitude, and snowfall is confined to our south with not much if anything here from NYC on north. I strongly feel that one of these two scenarios at this point are most likely to occur. WX/PT
  7. Wxoutlooksblog

    [Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    Suppressed. WX/PT
  8. The old GFS has this as rain. Here's it's a near miss but would most likely be snow if it came closer. The models will go back and forth for a while. With the big ridge out west and sufficient blocking in the North Atlantic I suspect that if it's going to happen, it more likely would be snow or a mix. WX/PT
  9. Wed-Thurs, brutally cold. This cold will continue with only brief interruptions. WX/PT
  10. December to begin brutally cold with the potential for more snow IMO. WX/PT
  11. Wxoutlooksblog

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    November 24th (cold air lacking so far), November 30th. WX/PT
  12. Wxoutlooksblog

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    I think there will probably be some snow but not much as in 1" or less with the emphasis on less right near the coast. The city could see an inch or so give or take a little. I just think there'll be lots of mixing right from an hour into this with lots of sleet. My call right now, coating to 2" coast, 2-4" higher elevations north and west of the big city. WX/PT
  13. Wxoutlooksblog

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    This looks to me like at least a snow/sleet/rain mix at least at the start even at the coast. I cannot rule out more snow. Accumulating snow to the north and west and maybe some light accumulations at the coast. I'd like to see more vertical velocity on the NAM to be more confident in that. This is an interesting set up as the antecedent HP is slow moving out east when it finally does so. The low back over the western Great Lakes is helping to kick the coastal a little further offshore. We need the coastal to strengthen more and wrap the antecedent HP back around it. That could happen. WX/PT
  14. There appears to be an increasing chance that if precipitation moves in quickly enough Thursday that it could at least start as a frozen mix or snow all the way to the coast. Right now, I'd rate that as about a 20% chance. Inland and well north and west could get an all out snow event from this--50% chance as of now. WX/PT
  15. I'm starting to wonder about November 18th. There's not really any significant support yet for an event there on the ECMWF but looking at where incoming high pressure is located well back to the west and at 144 hours on the Euro there's a little low on the Illinois/Iowa/Missouri border and there is room for it to develop if future runs are consistent. WX/PT
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