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Wxoutlooksblog

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  1. This will be unusually impressive IMO for overnight thunderstorms as they enter the region from the west. Their severe nature has been unusually persistent for nocturnal storms. WX/PT
  2. Easily the worst here since Sandy. WX/PT
  3. Wow at what's exploded over central NJ in the middle of the night. Nocturnal thunder. WX/PT https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=dix&loop=yes
  4. I agree. But I think it could be very worthwhile to follow storms developing and intensifying rapidly over northeastern PA points north and west over NY State. These will move quickly to the east affecting the most of the northeast later this afternoon with some of the storms reaching very strong to severe status. WX/PT
  5. Show me a model that has. IMO they've all been poor. Continually underdoing the eastward expansion of the almost nationwide ridge. Right now all bets are off but August does have the potential according to what the models currently show to bring record heat. However, I'm not sure the park hits 90 today due to thunderstorm debris and activity later on. WX/PT
  6. To add, with south-southwesterly winds I do not think 90 is a lock for Central Park tomorrow, or even Sunday though it is more likely to hit 90 or 91 on Sunday but could hit it both days. We'll see. The ocean is warming so it's cooling affect of NYC and points east, a little uncertain at this time. Monday looks like the hottest of the days. On the Euro which is very different from the GFS, next weekend is hotter than this weekend. We'll see. WX/PT
  7. The 00Z GFS goes somewhat against the idea of a heatwave in NYC starting Saturday or Sunday. Yes, if we hit 90 Saturday we could do it in Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, but tonight's run shows a weak semi-back-door front slipping through the area Monday late afternoon or evening with thunderstorms breaking out ahead of it across our region. Tuesday would probably not be a 90 degree day if that idea is correct. On Wednesday we're caught in a warm wedge of tropical air according to the GFS with widespread thunderstorm activity. That wedge gets squeezed out quickly by another cold front. I would
  8. I think the numbers in NYC support your posted ideas. Yes, it's warmer than normal, but top 5 or top 10 hottest, not even close. And as for the number of 90 degree days so far, I believe we're at 5 or 6 at the very most, probably on pace to finish in the 14-18 90+ degree days range, far below the 39 in 1991 or the 35 in 1966, or even the 27 of 1999. Temperatures should continue to average above normal with a good number of days falling just barely shy of 90. It's hard to say whether Central Park makes it tomorrow or Tuesday....these days will be close at the very least. WX/PT
  9. Tonight's run of the GFS is very warm but again, backs off of much of the heat for this coming week into early next week and instead has a serious of weak frontal systems and a storm system moving up the eastern seaboard dumping lots of the rain on parts of the northeast. Clouds and rain would according to this run keep temperatures from hitting 90 on most of the days though we do see a few days of at least approaching and maybe hitting 90. Showers and storms are widespread much of the period. Here is a sample map. WX/PT
  10. Tracking the potential heatwave, the 06Z run of the GFS was really a less extreme look for the northeastern U.S. WX/PT
  11. This is mid 90s to 100+ degree heat according on the GFS for NYC July 14th-19th. The GFS is showing this now about 4 days in a row/16 consecutive runs. Let's see if it holds. Last night it was a day or two earlier arriving, just sayin'. WX/PT
  12. So far, this has more been the prevailing picture and has tended to abbreviate any heat here. We'll see which look actually unfolds. WX/PT
  13. On tonight's GFS, there is some 100 degree heat for NYC itself around July 14th, perhaps more than one day of it. The heat for NYC Metro on this extremely hot GFS run is modeled to begin around July 11th and quickly evolve into extreme heat on the 13th and would probably continue 4-6 days as currently modeled. We'll see if future modeling is consistent with this solution. WX/PT
  14. Getting ready to rumble here in Douglaston Queens while I'm not sure if the worst of this moves over us or stays to our west/ southwest. WX/PT
  15. Storms popping and intensifying in many locations now. A very active day. WX/PT
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