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Everything posted by Wxoutlooksblog

  1. Yes, a new storm with lots of lightning popped to the west and kept me up for 45 minutes as I was trying to get some sleep. The worst of that storm stayed to my south and west. WX/PT
  2. Some very slight weakening noted in the passed 30 minutes with somewhat diminishing lightning strikes on the western flank of these. WX/PT
  3. Ring of Fire continues most of this week. We could get lots of these. WX/PT
  4. The Euro will be the best at showing WAR building north and west when it comes into the time-frame in about 3-4 days. When you see this on the Euro you can lock it up. WX/PT
  5. Still I prefer the 06Z version of the GFS over the 00Z. What happened the all those cold fronts on the 00Z, the model knocked the western ridge back down, no surprise. 12Z partially re-amplifies it but nothing like 00Z did. So I think future runs will again put more emphasis on retrograding the WAR and raising heights in the east particularly after August 7th. WX/PT
  6. Then it heats us right back up by the 9th but with the amplification in the west it would not be long before another front would be knocking on our door. Again, I think the western ridge's amplification is overdone. WX/PT
  7. Overnight tonight I think maybe the GFS is over amplifying the ridge out west in the longterm. This allows cold fronts to enter the CONUS whereas going by the earlier less amplified solutions of 12Z Saturday and 00Z Saturday, front would stay along the U.S./Canadian border. If the ridge in the west spikes too much we all know there's not going to be much if any heat in the east. I prefer the earlier solutions and think the modeling may correct over the next two to three days back more to what it looked like at 12Z Saturday. WX/PT
  8. Maybe 1999. I do expect that to happen, but once WAR builds back to the coast, I expect every long lasting heat, probably by far the longest heatwave of this season maybe as long as 8-12 days. If the smoke is still around we'll bake at 90-93 with overnight lows 77-84. If the smoke isn't around we could at one point make a run at 100 (for Central Park that is). Then later in the month we'll watch the tropics get going around the WAR. WX/PT
  9. GFS starting to really get back to the earlier/hotter solutions for August as of 12Z today. Again I do not think it's going to end up looking like this but the general idea is probably correct. I am expecting initially some kind of strong cold front coming through the ne late July/early Aug then it heats up rather quickly. WX/PT
  10. Until the WAR builds back and takes hold assuming it does and I think it will, ROF it is. WX/PT
  11. This is incredible. I still believe the idea of two ridges one out west and WAR on the east coast is more likely. How often have we ever seen a ridge covering this much of the CONUS? Extremely rare, extremely rare. WX/PT
  12. The trough which will develop over the Mississippi Valley once the central American ridge retrogrades and the WAR builds westward and northwestward will act as an additional mechanism to steer/pull/draw tropical systems up the coast helping to tuck them in a little rather than their recurving. We are moving in bad direction once WAR comes into play. Initially it may help to give us lots of hot beach days in August but later on it's a problem. Storms will move right around it. WX/PT
  13. Going out a limb a little further, I wouldn't be totally shocked if Central Park ended up with 27+ degree days sometime in September. 30+ not out of the question. WX/PT
  14. Tomorrow NYC should have a shot at 90. Then another shot around July 28th. We could finish July with 14 or even 15 90+ days at Central Park. Going into August, WAR builds northwest as a trough develops over the Mississippi Valley. With ridges way out west and on the east coast, the US mainland becomes a target for the tropics especially during the second half of Aug. Most of the month should feature plenty of heat for the east coast thanks to the retrograding WAR. ROF thunderstorm activity should gradually diminish as WAR takes over. I wouldn't be surprised if NYC finished Aug with 23+ days of
  15. And now after all those cool cool below normal temperature maps of a couple of days ago, looks like July will finish up--hot and stormy! Hot days alternating with ROF thunderstorm activity. What's new? WX/PT
  16. A light thundershower is all that's left of what's over me. WX/PT
  17. That's how it's been all day. It could continue that way through the night then we start all over again tomorrow. WX/PT
  18. Some of the longer range models changes overnight are interesting. I was particularly noticing changes from yesterdays unseasonably chilly look from the end of this week through most of the end of this month to the warmer model solutions at 06Z. Will the models return to the unusually cool look or continue to warm for later July going into August? WX/PT
  19. Central Park should have no problem reaching the low-mid 90s later today and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms should hold temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 on Thursday. Hopefully the showers and storms will get out of the way for the upcoming holiday weekend. Right now the maps appear drastically improved with somewhat lower humidity levels and temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s depending on where you are. The next heatwave appears to begin July 6th or 7th and last 3-4 days. I think we'll be doing this most of the summer with perhaps a break during mid July. But July should end u
  20. Winds are too southerly this weekend for most locations in the immediate NYC Metro to hit 90. The surface HP is too far to the north initially. Early next week it settles into a better position. WX/PT
  21. I think the best shot at hitting 90 in NYC is Monday and Tuesday but we'll see. It could change around from day to day per the amount of clouds/haze showers and storms. The models will go back and forth with the details until 24-36 hours in advance. The weekend looks to me to be mid-upper 80s. WX/PT
  22. GFS tonight and over the passed several runs really depicting an uncomfortably oppressive end of June and beginning of July. Warmth and humidity with some hot days thrown in, plenty of thunderstorm activity thrown in. Dew points in the mid-upper 70s around here might be on the way. Enjoy the conditions we now have! WX/PT
  23. Periods of at times heavy rain closing in on me from the south and west. WX/PT
  24. The end of this week into the end of the month looks quite stormy for most of us. As we head into July the pattern which earlier looked nice now looks to favor well above normal temperatures and very high humidity levels. The details *may* depend on what becomes of a tropical systems some of the models are moving out of the Gulf of Mexico. Since this system isn't even yet formed, uncertainty which would be high during that time-frame anyway, is even higher. For the rest of this month Central Park could pick up another one or two more 90+ degree days but if they occur it would most
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