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CCB! last won the day on August 10

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About CCB!

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    Evil will always triumph, because good is dumb
  • Birthday December 18

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    Bedminster, NJ ; Formally Morristown :(

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  1. It's going to be an ugly day for flash flooding south of the frontal boundary. Can expect plenty of lightning strikes too.
  2. So, it would be great if there is no TC development in the ten day time-frame.
  3. Needs monitoring considering the time of year/proximity to land.
  4. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0607 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1145 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2020 Areas affected...Central & Eastern PA...Ext southwest NJ...Northern MD...eastern WV...Ext Northern VA... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 071545Z - 072115Z SUMMARY...Slow moving/stationary cells over drier grounds (Central PA) or cells moving through saturated grounds (E PA/NJ), pose flash flooding risk through early afternoon. DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV depicts a rapidly filling trof over the Great Lakes into Ohio River valley with the main lingering elongated trof extending from E NY across PA into the Cumberland Plateau. A stronger upstream shortwave is rounding the base of the inner core across Lake Erie at this time. In the low-levels, a weak surface wave has developed near MDT with and inverted trof extending northward, and a stationary/warm front extending eastward across SE PA...warm, moist air continues to exist in the warm sector with surface Tds up to low 70s, while 850-7H CIRA LPW denotes the trof axis with moisture pooling along/just east across Central PA into WV with values between .5-.7 in that layer alone. The low level is already starting to respond to the approaching shortwave by backing low level flow increasing convergence through the mid-level trof axis and inverted surface trof. While not strong the flow is sufficient and enhancing orographic ascent to further destabilize and initiate convection across many of the spines of the central PA Appalachian ridges, given the height-falls are upstream, moisture flow is still through these ridges further west and helps to support terrain locked convection in the short-term. As such, efficient deep warm cloud layer rainfall generation should support near 2"/hr rates given the flux convergence and stationary nature to the cells and may result in localized 2-4" totals over the next hour or so before they move off the terrain. Additionally, as moisture flux flows further west and increased insolation weakens that cap over W central-PA additional thunderstorms are likely to develop over the early afternoon hours. Further east, a few early morning storms continue to maintain and approach the Poconos and Lehigh Valleywhere FFG values are likely to be exceeded due to being below 1"/hr, so even sub-hourly .5" totals which have been produced could lead to aggravate any flooding concerns. Additionally, given the placement of the warm front, relative to the inflow/propagation, additional cells moving off central PA terrain are likely to take a similar path along/south of the frontal zone and across the lower FFG of SE PA and may slide into the northern MD counties though timing of this remains the most uncertain portion of the forecast (strongest CAM signal ~20-21z). Gallina ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI..
  5. The GEFS v12 is now available on TT! Very cool, much awesome-ness. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens-para&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020080712&fh=6
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