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About CCB!

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  1. I think it was pretty much accepted by most folks yesterday. No, it's not going to come north into the tri-state/NE region. But for folks right on the edge in VA, they're still paying close attention & rightly so imo.
  2. Don't give up if you're in VA/DC area.
  3. Thanks very much for that write up, @Isotherm. Fun times ahead
  4. Wild stuff... Pretty cool seeing all the pieces of the puzzle we're usually tracking in these parts of the world overseas.
  5. Not exactly... The confluence on this run is notably stronger. Hint: Don't follow the red L, note northern extent of the isobars associated with the storm center and more notably, the height contours over the NE/SE Canada.
  6. Just another look from tidbits... The usual disclaimer, a lot of this is sleet. But still, very, very impressive.
  7. Nothing wrong with the suggestion, but this was covered days ago by a few of us on here. Even if there's secondary cyclogenesis, the storm can still only get so far north due to the confluence. By that time, any meaningful jet dynamics are shoved east due to the flow. So it'd have to develop & stay tucked. The precipitation shield will be exceptionally small if that was to occur.
  8. Keep tracking... While points north of DC are essentially out of the game at this point due to the greater synoptic evolution, the potential exists for marginal height rises out ahead of the storm thanks to the diabatic outflow of the system venting aloft. That may yield a late 60+ mile shift north or so & is worth watching.
  9. It will correct for the reasons outlined by @Isotherm, @PB GFI & others. Not too worried about the long range ensembles right now.
  10. CCB!

    Banter Thread: Winter 2018-19 Edition

    Internet weather community update:
  11. 500mb is modestly improved on the Pacific side & the orientation of the ridge for that matter is a bit better... But on the Atlantic side, not so much... Without a massive correction with regards to the constant flow of PV streamers over S-QC/NE, you're not going to bring this north with the lead ULL pressing south:
  12. There are some ostensible, modest "improvements" aloft on the GFS. Most notably, a modestly sharper PNA ridge/slightly improved angular momentum for the incoming piece of vorticity & increased venting aloft. Though your NW to SE flow over eastern Canada continues (unexpectedly), which causes "issues" with regards to confluence. Not much change with regards to the greater "jackpot" areas of NC/VA as far as I can tell from the upper air maps thus far. The STJ is really going to pump this system full of moisture.
  13. Good news is that while there is obviously still time for changes, hopefully there will be enough lead time to move in additional snow/ice removal equipment before the storm arrives. Frankly, I have no idea if any such coordination is happening, but I do hope the conversations among local OEM's have already begun.