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    Evil will always triumph, because good is dumb
  • Birthday December 18

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  1. HRDPS was one heck of a run. Minimal to no backside rain as compared to the GFS/RGEM.
  2. It's likely overdone. But even with a more realistic sounding from the HRRR, it's a dry column around the same altitude.
  3. Yeah, most guidance believe the column saturates fairly well... But that's a lott of dry air to deal with first. Nowcast for sure.
  4. For frozen precip intents & purposes, this is probably a better trend map to use since (only out to 30, instead of 36) the last of the precip now looks to be chewed up as rain. But it was still an uptick in frozen before any full changeover.
  5. It looks look better for many posters, agreed. But careful w/total QPF, 18z RGEM & GFS are advertising less "snizzle" & more a period of light rain across the area now after the frozen precip moves through.
  6. Tick drier in a few areas (less banding on this run), only noise for many areas - TBH, wasn't really colder, but not warmer. It was nearly exactly the same w/regard to temps as the 12z run.
  7. 18z RGEM doesn't bite on the mid level warm tongue winning out for that period like the NAM, but backed off a bit on the best banding cutting across NENJ up towards NEPA/SNY.
  8. I think that's why he said " However, that may not matter that much because its still January and not March. As such there is still enough cold air to make things interesting if the storm takes a good track especially for those on the interior. "
  9. NAM comment notwithstanding, you could call this a trend on the 3k showing a more pronounced warmer tongue between 850/750mb for a period of time tomorrow leading to IP. Dynamic cooling ultimately overcomes this on most models... But it's there for an hour or two. 00z high res models should show a decent consensus. We'll have a better idea of the "battleground" at that time.
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