I think if guidance continues with the idea of a track over the interior today, then the likelihood of a thump dwindles a bit. That is, unless the synoptic evolution is favorable enough to drive low/mid level frontogenesis at the right time to take advantage of the low level cold & saturate the DGZ.
What I am concerned about though with the front end is a legit period of icing. We know icing forecasts in the mid-range tend to verify less often than not... But if the HP does linger in that source region, it's going to be a problem. Especially when considering that we're +fifteen days into December by then, with minimal @SunAngleSteve issues to contend with.
It may be an interesting balance as additional amplification on models will obviously push the system further inland & put the bulk of the board even further into the warm sector. But that increased venting would also amplify the ULJ... Depending on where the left exit region is placed upon the SLP's approach, the HP/CAD signal may actually increase. So essentially warmer mid-levels, but a longer duration period of pronounced low level cold.
Hopefully we just trend in a better direction overall with the system & this is all for naught... But I figured it's something to keep in mind.