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Everything posted by CCB!

  1. That's the giant ridge we're tracking, which is set to roll over Canada & settling for a period. It's tied back to a rossby wave train that originated on the other side of the globe.
  2. The location of the cutoff ULL being further NE at hr 192 here would at face value, keep the prospects of a direct landfall away from the Mid-Atlantic, but perhaps increase the chance of a slingshot into New England. There's no point in getting caught up in those details on a day 8 op look. Point being though, I think with such a strong ridge rolling over the top across Canada into the NATL like that is going to make a lot of people queasy next week. It's going to come down to the amplitude of, and how fast that ridge rolls over, because that'll dictate how early the tr
  3. Its kind of a delicate process. Yes, a recurving WPAC tropical cyclone will ignite a rossby wave train, but exactly when the ridge decides to slow its progression is not 100% clear, though recent trends have been less than ideal. That'll drive if the trough cuts off (or even be accompanied by a full blown cut off ULL) & where it's placed east of the Mississippi. Lot of time to go.
  4. oof... still a ton of disagreement, but that's a rough look in the long range... and not so great medium range trends. Hopefully the trough skirting to Sam's north around day 3 is able to direct it that way before the ridge builds in.
  5. Concerning trends on the Euro for Sam down the line... It continues to force the ridging over Canada & the NATL further south, pinching off the trough further south. The ULL in the NE ATL is all but gone as well. That's a lot of flow to push him closer towards the CONUS moving up in time.
  6. Ben Noll breaking out the big guns with the persistent early SSW signal. Woof.
  7. ECM forecasting an early weakening of the SPV, perhaps even an early season SSWE. Let's get things moving early this year. It's getting fun going right from summer to winter every year now (/s).
  8. The Post likely knows what it's doing. Great way to get re-tweets/shares, subtweets etc. Just trigger to met community & voila, lol
  9. I wanted to clarify something too with regard to that second tweet. Any potential PRE would likely be relegated to Northern New England, or the Canadian Maritimes at this stage. I should have done so when I first tweeted it. Larry is just too far out to sea to really link up with the extra-tropical features until it gets further north. Regardless, the severe/flash flooding threat is unchanged for our area with highly anomalous PWATs dominating the region & decent forcing now likely to be present.
  10. Severe/flash flooding threat tomorrow afternoon evening. I posted this thread last night. Update this morning from WPC/SPC:
  11. It def seems like you could historically rely on a cold front coming through to reset things for a while... Not so much these past few years. When it does happen, it's almost nostalgic, lol.
  12. It's cool. I'm just saying it's the same pattern repeating itself year after year with regard to the mid-level steering now a days.
  13. Evergreen post these past few years, lol.
  14. Thx Pat! While I'm not a weather info dissemination authority by any means, the one thing I do regret is not using stronger language to convey how serious that aspect of the threat looked & being more location specific. Stronger language mentioning that a few strong/violent tornadoes were likely may have gotten more engagement & it clearly would have been justified. Thankfully, most prominent outlets did a decent job getting that word out. Same goes for the flash flooding threat posts, perhaps more so. Live & learn!
  15. This is insane. https://www.facebook.com/markkoby4/videos/1696299003895842/?sfnsn=mo
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