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    NYMW - Miguel Pierre

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  1. At 6:15 AM EST, Harrison [Hudson Co, NJ] CO-OP OBSERVER reports NON-TSTM WND DMG. MAJOR DAMAGE TO ROOF OF HOLY CROSS SCHOOL FROM WIND. mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#OKX/201902251115/201902251115 …
  2. 65F at Newark now! https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KEWR&unit=0&timetype=GMT
  3. This is the most impressive -NAO retrograde signal that I've seen from the LR GEFS this winter. The PV is forced to drop down to James Bay.
  4. I agree. It actually looks like the MJO is in phase 5 now and entering phase 6 next week, using these 200mb VP maps:
  5. The SPV split is now also occurring at 50mb on the GFS, GEFS and and EPS, beginning in about 11-12 days. Which is more evidence that this SSW event will downwell and result in more high-latitude blocking in the EPO/AO/NAO regions around the Jan 5-10th period.
  6. Model/ensemble data trends continue to suggest a SSW in late December and early January. Significant warming and reversal of zonal winds are shown:
  7. EPS: Rise! Major stratospheric warming event beginning near Christmas.
  8. The FV3-GFS is much is also weaker than the GFS with the PV disturbance diving down over SE Canada
  9. METAR reports: EWR 4" total. 2" in the last hour. JFK 3" total. 2" in the last hour.
  10. The EPS overnight still honking the late October Nor'easter storm threat:
  11. Storm Floaters on Michael here: https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/
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