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Weathergun

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  1. 6z Euro shows snow by Monday evening in the NJ/NYC area.
  2. The GFS might be showing too much widespread precip behind the front, with this mid-level dry wedge it has on the soundings in the area on Wednesday AM. I suspect the banding will be more narrow and precip will shut off a little quicker.
  3. Snowed for a few minutes here in Woodside, Queens. Some light dustings/coatings. Now it’s changed back to sleet. CC/dual-pol radar shows the mix line pushing back north.
  4. At 6:15 AM EST, Harrison [Hudson Co, NJ] CO-OP OBSERVER reports NON-TSTM WND DMG. MAJOR DAMAGE TO ROOF OF HOLY CROSS SCHOOL FROM WIND. mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#OKX/201902251115/201902251115 …
  5. 65F at Newark now! https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KEWR&unit=0&timetype=GMT
  6. This is the most impressive -NAO retrograde signal that I've seen from the LR GEFS this winter. The PV is forced to drop down to James Bay.
  7. I agree. It actually looks like the MJO is in phase 5 now and entering phase 6 next week, using these 200mb VP maps:
  8. The SPV split is now also occurring at 50mb on the GFS, GEFS and and EPS, beginning in about 11-12 days. Which is more evidence that this SSW event will downwell and result in more high-latitude blocking in the EPO/AO/NAO regions around the Jan 5-10th period.
  9. Model/ensemble data trends continue to suggest a SSW in late December and early January. Significant warming and reversal of zonal winds are shown:
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