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Weathergun

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About Weathergun

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    NYMW - Miguel Pierre

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    Woodside,NY

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  1. Weathergun

    Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

    Model/ensemble data trends continue to suggest a SSW in late December and early January. Significant warming and reversal of zonal winds are shown:
  2. Weathergun

    Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

    EPS: Rise! Major stratospheric warming event beginning near Christmas.
  3. The FV3-GFS is much is also weaker than the GFS with the PV disturbance diving down over SE Canada
  4. Weathergun

    November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

    METAR reports: EWR 4" total. 2" in the last hour. JFK 3" total. 2" in the last hour.
  5. Weathergun

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    The EPS overnight still honking the late October Nor'easter storm threat:
  6. Weathergun

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Storm Floaters on Michael here: https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/
  7. Weathergun

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    10am CDT Advisory has the pressure at 928mb, but still with 145mph winds: SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 86.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES
  8. Weathergun

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Pressure is at 929mb per VDM URNT12 KNHC 101436 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018 A. 10/14:12:00Z B. 29.30 deg N 086.12 deg W C. 700 mb 2454 m D. 929 mb E. 075 deg 10 kt F. CLOSED G. C18 H. 110 kt I. 187 deg 7 nm 14:09:30Z J. 299 deg 134 kt K. 187 deg 7 nm 14:09:30Z L. 112 kt M. 024 deg 9 nm 14:15:30Z N. 090 deg 125 kt O. 023 deg 11 nm 14:16:00Z P. 13 C / 3051 m Q. 18 C / 3050 m R. 11 C / NA S. 12345 / 7 T. 0.02 / 1 nm U. AF301 1514A MICHAEL OB 04 MAX FL WIND 134 KT 187 / 7 NM 14:09:30Z ;
  9. Weathergun

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Just saw this 129kt near-surface wind report. Close to the normal 90% reduction from flight level at 700mb.
  10. Weathergun

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    I agree. That is why SFMR or dropsondes are more valuable here.
  11. Weathergun

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Sorry, I meant 129.6kt for flight level wind speed to reduction to the surface.
  12. Weathergun

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    144kt flight level winds found in Michael. That would reduce to about 129.6kts (149mph) at the surface. But the SFMR hasn't reported winds that high yet.
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