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Weathergun

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    NYMW - Miguel Pierre

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  1. 65F at Newark now! https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KEWR&unit=0&timetype=GMT
  2. This is the most impressive -NAO retrograde signal that I've seen from the LR GEFS this winter. The PV is forced to drop down to James Bay.
  3. EPS snow probs through 12z Tuesday Jan 22
  4. Them GEFS MJO loka betta
  5. Weathergun

    [Eastern US] Dec. 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    I agree. It actually looks like the MJO is in phase 5 now and entering phase 6 next week, using these 200mb VP maps:
  6. The SPV split is now also occurring at 50mb on the GFS, GEFS and and EPS, beginning in about 11-12 days. Which is more evidence that this SSW event will downwell and result in more high-latitude blocking in the EPO/AO/NAO regions around the Jan 5-10th period.
  7. Model/ensemble data trends continue to suggest a SSW in late December and early January. Significant warming and reversal of zonal winds are shown:
  8. EPS: Rise! Major stratospheric warming event beginning near Christmas.
  9. Weathergun

    [Eastern US] Dec. 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

    The FV3-GFS is much is also weaker than the GFS with the PV disturbance diving down over SE Canada
  10. METAR reports: EWR 4" total. 2" in the last hour. JFK 3" total. 2" in the last hour.
  11. Weathergun

    October 2018 Discussion & Observations

    The EPS overnight still honking the late October Nor'easter storm threat:
  12. Weathergun

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Storm Floaters on Michael here: https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/floaters/
  13. Weathergun

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    10am CDT Advisory has the pressure at 928mb, but still with 145mph winds: SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 86.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES
  14. Weathergun

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Pressure is at 929mb per VDM URNT12 KNHC 101436 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018 A. 10/14:12:00Z B. 29.30 deg N 086.12 deg W C. 700 mb 2454 m D. 929 mb E. 075 deg 10 kt F. CLOSED G. C18 H. 110 kt I. 187 deg 7 nm 14:09:30Z J. 299 deg 134 kt K. 187 deg 7 nm 14:09:30Z L. 112 kt M. 024 deg 9 nm 14:15:30Z N. 090 deg 125 kt O. 023 deg 11 nm 14:16:00Z P. 13 C / 3051 m Q. 18 C / 3050 m R. 11 C / NA S. 12345 / 7 T. 0.02 / 1 nm U. AF301 1514A MICHAEL OB 04 MAX FL WIND 134 KT 187 / 7 NM 14:09:30Z ;
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