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    NYMW - Miguel Pierre

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  1. The 6z GFS ensemble members are more intense with the Feb 1st storm offshore and CWB/Greenblock developing afterwards.
  2. Mesoscale Discussion 0008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Areas affected...Central/Eastern AR...Far Northeast LA...Northwest/West-Central MS...Far Southwest TN Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 101053Z - 101300Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will occur across central/eastern AR, far northeast LA, northwest/west-central MS, and far southwest TN with the upcoming 13Z Convective Outlook. DISCUSSION...Based on recent guidance, the probability for significant wind gusts (i.e. gusts at or above 75 mph) to occur late
  3. SREF significant tornado and derecho threat Friday afternoon and night.
  4. Watch how much of the blocking over the Davis Strait and ridging over the Rockies has trended stronger since Wednesday.
  5. 6z Euro shows snow by Monday evening in the NJ/NYC area.
  6. The GFS might be showing too much widespread precip behind the front, with this mid-level dry wedge it has on the soundings in the area on Wednesday AM. I suspect the banding will be more narrow and precip will shut off a little quicker.
  7. Snowed for a few minutes here in Woodside, Queens. Some light dustings/coatings. Now it’s changed back to sleet. CC/dual-pol radar shows the mix line pushing back north.
  8. At 6:15 AM EST, Harrison [Hudson Co, NJ] CO-OP OBSERVER reports NON-TSTM WND DMG. MAJOR DAMAGE TO ROOF OF HOLY CROSS SCHOOL FROM WIND. mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#OKX/201902251115/201902251115 …
  9. 65F at Newark now! https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KEWR&unit=0&timetype=GMT
  10. This is the most impressive -NAO retrograde signal that I've seen from the LR GEFS this winter. The PV is forced to drop down to James Bay.
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