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weathersolo

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  1. Considering the inherent averaging, looks like 6 weeks of a favorable pattern sets in, with the MJO in a favorable state.
  2. Can't get excited with the NAM at >60 hours. Agreement with the Euro normally provides some credibility - but the Euro has not been performing well over short ranges in this pattern.
  3. We don't have todays run of the 45 day EPS yet, but from three days ago the progression of the Aleutian Ridge to a West Coast ridge does appear to take place at the end of the month.
  4. Just looking at the EPS this morning, the torch is over come the later half of next week. With the cold building in Canada opportunities of snow and cold will increase as you well noted. This is evident in the long range EPS snow potential with the expanse of snow coverage coming after the 15th. Cannot deny the next 10 days of warm surges....
  5. I think Australia is suffering a bit more than us with that!
  6. There is one hopeful improvement in the 14 day range of the EPS - Canada starts filling with real arctic sir and pressures build - something that has been missing for weeks. That creates hope for some level of pattern change beyond.
  7. Lets Let's see if Cross - Polar flow comes to the North American Continent - that could be a game changer.
  8. Both today's run of the EPS and yesterday's run of the 46 day depict the evolution out of this pattern, during the week of January 12th onward. The Pacific ridge and coresponding Western trough flatten and begin to shift east. The resistance that the southeast ridge puts on the system can induce some interesting weather.
  9. I am getting a bit irritated with some of the talking head experts on TWITTER claiming that Winter is over - and will average above normal. Clearly a 2 week look ahead on the major global models does not offer the insight to yet make these claims. Example is tonights GEFS wi a much flatter/more zonal "trough" in the West entering into January Thaw week....
  10. I think JB has taught us to observe major shifts in Winter patterns correlating to the period referred to as the "January Thaw" - January 15th -22nd. Looks like the comments here and what we are observing in the models, display a fair amount of consistency until that time - after that we can see what develops.
  11. EPS has a greater than 50% chance of accumulation from Hartford north - not buying the GFS.
  12. This is the first year in some time in that I dread looking at the pattern as it evolves on the EPS with each ensuing run...
  13. Copyright laws and their inforcement became well established on Internet platforms after their early experience with Napster and music file sharing - plaintiffs and proectuters found all sorts of mechanisms to go after perppertrators - shutting down that service
  14. That aligns better with what we saw overnight from the ECMWF ensemble spread. (We can talk about what we see in he Model output - even though we can;t post it).
  15. What we see coming up in the models is of higher probability than what we had seen thus far. Blocking over Greenland which occurs much more frequently as we approach the end of Winter, will have an influence in impeding exodus of the cold air masses, after they enter the northern US as we go through the middle of Frebruary through mid March. That will drive storm tracks south with a blocking high over southern Canada much more probable. Don't give up on the evolution of the pattern - despite how complex it has been.
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