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weathersolo

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  1. A lot os met's insist that the Winter is over anthem as the final word - as for Meteorological Winter that may be true, but with shortening of the wavelengths - the pattern has to break down. Our one chance for the return of Winter conditions here in the east would be early March. The EPS is hinting that the Alaskan trough finally breaks down, allowing troughing in the east. We will see what that brings.
  2. To have this consistent trough over Alaska from late December through all of February is extraordinary.
  3. So what going on with the EPS then? Does the -EPO regulate access to the cold air that has been over Alaska?
  4. The changes taking place in the 2nd week EPS do bring chances for snow to New England - less so to the Mid Atlantic.
  5. Hopefully the snow modeled in the EPS weeklies comes in the mid February time frame - beyond that I would take an early start to Spring, and get over this disappointing Winter. From what I would surmise the very warm ocean temperatures world-wide have overwhelmed the Winter season in the NH. Most of the cold that escaped from the polar region spilled out over the Northern Pacific and North Atlantic flowing off and "sinking" the cold generated by neutralizing some of the ocean heat. Ice generation in the NH polar region is above levels seen in recent years and hopefully this is a start of a cooling of those oceans.
  6. Looks as if a split will be occurring sometime during the 2nd week of February.
  7. Thanks - missed that. I still like the trends this morning on both 2 week ensembles.
  8. From latest trends on the GEFS and EPS - pattern is showing the signs of significant change. The 45 day EPS snow map is simply sniffing this out.
  9. We have to hope that one of these days the AO will actually go negative. Right now it does not look hopeful.
  10. Considering the inherent averaging, looks like 6 weeks of a favorable pattern sets in, with the MJO in a favorable state.
  11. Can't get excited with the NAM at >60 hours. Agreement with the Euro normally provides some credibility - but the Euro has not been performing well over short ranges in this pattern.
  12. We don't have todays run of the 45 day EPS yet, but from three days ago the progression of the Aleutian Ridge to a West Coast ridge does appear to take place at the end of the month.
  13. Just looking at the EPS this morning, the torch is over come the later half of next week. With the cold building in Canada opportunities of snow and cold will increase as you well noted. This is evident in the long range EPS snow potential with the expanse of snow coverage coming after the 15th. Cannot deny the next 10 days of warm surges....
  14. I think Australia is suffering a bit more than us with that!
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