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  1. This is the first year in some time in that I dread looking at the pattern as it evolves on the EPS with each ensuing run...
  2. Copyright laws and their inforcement became well established on Internet platforms after their early experience with Napster and music file sharing - plaintiffs and proectuters found all sorts of mechanisms to go after perppertrators - shutting down that service
  3. That aligns better with what we saw overnight from the ECMWF ensemble spread. (We can talk about what we see in he Model output - even though we can;t post it).
  4. What we see coming up in the models is of higher probability than what we had seen thus far. Blocking over Greenland which occurs much more frequently as we approach the end of Winter, will have an influence in impeding exodus of the cold air masses, after they enter the northern US as we go through the middle of Frebruary through mid March. That will drive storm tracks south with a blocking high over southern Canada much more probable. Don't give up on the evolution of the pattern - despite how complex it has been.
  5. The contrast between Caribou and Boston snowfall totals is quite noteworthy.
  6. The only reason that I made the original comment was that the WPO did not seem to be in focus in many analysis about the pattern. I with Earthlight in that the actual pattern is determined by a combination of many factors.
  7. Who foresaw that the WPO would be the index determining our pattern driver this year?
  8. Masiello did a great job summarizing the challenges faced by the temperature profile in the Pacific,
  9. There is hope since the Pacific is starting to cool - that may help slow down the jet with time.
  10. The fast southern jet being generated off of the Pacific
  11. The key feature on all the models is the recurrent strong southern jet undercutting the establishment of the trough in the east. Bastradi's comment that maybe the temperature pattern in the Pacific although showing characteristics of a Midoki El Nino, does not have enough temperature differentiation to establish our desired pattern is real - we will see.
  12. There is a noted climatological shift that does occur around mid-January, which is often associated with pattern shifts. Not sure of the source for this but it does correlate with the weeks of lowest northern Hemisphere temperatures. May be an outcome of the overall heat balance.
  13. I can wait until the week of the 14th for the pattern change if the latest GEFS in correct.
  14. There is definitely something squirely in the mid-range depiction of the ECMWF. Not handling the SSW very well? Yesterdays weeklies looked better.
  15. Before the late November warm-up, it does look like a good chance for some snow in Southern New England.
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