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weathersolo

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  1. weathersolo

    Mid/Long Range Winter Pattern Discussion

    I am not so sure that Winter is really over after next weeks warm-up. Looks like some blocking comes back in early April with the trough reestablishing in the east. We have seen snow in the Northeast as late as May 9th - 1977, Over a foot of snow fell in the hills around CT. The Lilacs were bet over with snow on them in lower elevations. I remember it well back in high school....
  2. weathersolo

    Winter 2017-2018 -- The Encore

    It does appear on both the EPS and GEFS that after next weeks last hurrah of storm potential, that the -NAO gets wiped out. Although the long wave trough is still biased in the central and east, it now retracts further - cutting off our train of Nor'Easter potential - In time for the start of Spring.
  3. Here is the snowfall depiction from Weathermodels.com. The NAM did relent to the ECMWF at the last minute...
  4. weathersolo

    March 7-8 Redemption threat

    While most in NJ and New York State were quite happy with this last Nor'easter, the NWSBOX office was quite correct in predicting minimal to no snow in Southern New England - the low level jet overcame any dynamic cooling. The potential for the next storm looks much better for us this time.
  5. Can anyone explain why the NWS offices are not buying the ECMWF & NAM? - I read the NWSBOX discussion and they beleive that the low level jet will be so strong that it would wipe out any dynamic cooling effects.
  6. The 6Z GFS is out to lunch - an outlier compared to the blocking remaining on the GEFS.
  7. Of course living in CT - I don’t like the operational depiction - the EPS is much more favorable for us in the same timeframe
  8. Love what the GFS is doing for the week of February 27th -March 6th in reaction to the -NAO. Granted this is in GFS fantasy-land time range, but it does indicate that the models are reacting....
  9. Now that is something to get excited about....
  10. I absolutely agree - the EPS has been out to lunch in this pattern It can't seem to handle the ramifications of the SWE and it's impact on the PV and it's recovery.
  11. I don;t have empirical evidence to quote here - but sometimes the GEFS leads the way in detecting the potential for major changes before the EPS.
  12. While the next two weeks are locked into the western trough scenario as the SWE event upsets the cart, all the models are suggesting the ridge builds into the Western Canada - first crushing the SW trough and then downstream crushing the SE east ridge at the start of March. Once that pattern locks in, we should see a few good weeks of cold and snow. Unfortunately it is not the best for Spring lovers and neither for Winter lovers who would prefer it now....
  13. Both models look considerably improved from yesterday's runs, but I agree that the source region is a concern in the 2nd week as DSnowx53 noted above. It appears that the trend should improve over time with a better set-up starting the weekend of the 17th-18th.
  14. With the impending SWE impact in the coming week - doesn't the GEFS two week projection look more reasonable than the EPS? EPS is all high pressure with a zonal flow across the East Pacific, North America, and Western Atlantic.... Only Cold spots are Japan and Europe,,,
  15. The ECMWF has been consistent for several consecutive runs in depicting the PV split as taking one lobe back into the Gulf of Alaska and allowing Pacific flow to flood the lower 48. It also allows a SW Atlantic ridge to begin to dominate. Not sure of the following evolution - but that could the beginning of an early Spring for the East.
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