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Dsnowx53

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Dsnowx53 last won the day on March 8

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About Dsnowx53

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    NYMW - Doug Simonian

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    Rockville Centre, NY

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  1. The UKIE at 144 hours definitely looked interesting. It just kept rolling the cutoff east with another area of strong confluence. The cutoff does not get sheared out. But this is so incredibly different from the GFS at the same time:
  2. Knicks 19-18 at the All Star break. What a pleasant surprise. Randle has been so good and so consistent all year. RJ has really shown strides too -- his shooting has gotten so much better over the past 20+ games. The schedule is brutal after the break though, ugh.
  3. I was inspired by Steph Curry at the All Star game/3 point shooting contest tonight!
  4. It mostly just comes down to timing of the ejection of the cutoff. The GFS has trended slower with the timing of the ejection each run, allowing it to shift toward a cutter synoptically. There would then likely be a following snow threat a couple or a few days later with a trailing shortwave as the baroclinic zone shifts east, sometime around March 18-19th.
  5. As long as the cutoff low somewhat ejects, it has a perfect area of confluence to move into for baroclinicity and a favorable storm track. It's also possible that it doesn't eject in time, though, and the confluence moves out before the storm arrives and a cutter ensues instead. But the EPS definitely has some members that eject, like the GFS OP.
  6. If the cold pattern is going to come back, it might as well snow. I certainly wouldn't mind tracking 1-2 more threats. The EPS continues to look interesting.
  7. I'm even getting some good snow rates here! Slushy coating on cold surfaces.
  8. These are either the biggest or second biggest snowflakes I’ve ever seen! This is nuts!!
  9. I jinxed them Awful loss last night, though sometimes you just have cold nights!
  10. ICON has a gorgeous look at 180 hours. With shortening wavelengths, all you need is a bit of a splitting flow downstream of the Pacific Northwest trough and you get a bowling ball under a Southern Canada ridge...
  11. There's still a lot of individual variability among the members with how they bring the snow. Some big thumps, some big coastals, some in between.
  12. This is why I much prefer the hobby/tracking side of weather to the operational side, that's for sure!
  13. It seems like there are three scenarios now. 1) The big thump and a dry slot/sleet...quicker shutoff (NAM) 2) A solid thump with some trailing coastal snow on Thursday night, like the HRRR...no real shutoff between rounds, snow ends Friday morning (like the HRRR and to some extent the RGEM) 3) An okay thump with a fairly long break of only sporadic snow, then the coastal is its own separate entity like 12 hours later to continue light snow on Friday during the day (Euro) There is also a 4th scenario that is somewhat of a hybrid of 2 and 3, like the UKIE. I'm d
  14. Thicknesses and heights do fall as the coastal develops, so I'm hoping that any warm layer that does initially develop can get eroded and we get a nice long duration light snow after the thump. I'd be lying if I had a great feel on this, though.
  15. We keep getting closer to a more consolidated trough on the Euro for a better coastal. I'm just not sure if it is too late though, especially considering how elongated the initial PVA is. I'm still hoping for the "happy medium" scenario of some thump and some coastal.
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