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Dsnowx53 last won the day on February 23 2018

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About Dsnowx53

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    NYMW - Doug Simonian

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    Rockville Centre, NY

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  1. So do we want Washington to beat Dallas tomorrow? Dallas's schedule isn't that bad, and they're probably the most competent team now that Dalton is back and Zeke looks healthy. The Giants also have already beaten Washington twice. But considering Dallas's division record is only 1-2, the Giants beating Dallas in week 17 would make the Giants' division record 4-2, and Dallas's 3-3 (or worse). So you then essentially have control over a game in Dallas's schedule, and would take the tiebreaker right back from them. So I'm honestly not sure. Also, if let's say T
  2. Getting pretty close to cross-polar flow at the end of the EPS. Not quite there yet, but the links are being built from the Arctic through Western Greenland, into the bigger trough in the Eastern US. With an amplifying WHEM H5 pattern, this would theoretically translate to a bigger -EPO cold dump at around day 20. This is why @OHweatherhas mentioned the second or third week of December as the more exciting window, especially if we maintain the active STJ, which the EPS does show occurring. Admittedly somewhat anecdotally, while the first week of December doe
  3. The Giants have a very real chance to win the NFC East.
  4. Hey all! I'd be lying if I could guarantee that I'll be posting in here as much as usual (I'm way busier now, I barely even ever tweet anything weather), but it's great to be back in here as we move into winter! I do think a lot of these concerns make sense, considering the high-latitude pattern still looks pretty poor, and the Pacific Jet will still have a good amount of background west to east momentum. Could make the aligning of the streams difficult, and I could see how this "mistiming" of streams with the flow splitting could lead to a Southeast US system as @Webberw
  5. Also notice the troughing shifting equatorward in the Atlantic on the EPS. That's how you set up an inherently blockier pattern in the higher latitudes.
  6. The westerly wind burst is already occurring right now at the Dateline, and is why the models are already picking up on its responses and thus shifting to a better Pacific pattern. This is a good sign.
  7. This is a horribly grammatically written sentence, yet it's getting a lot of likes.
  8. This is how you can pull off a KU without all of the classic KU pre-loading ingredients pattern.
  9. And notice how slow the wind barbs are between our southern shortwave and the TPV! This is exactly what we want. The fast flow to the north, and the slower flow to the south. This is how we get a long duration event within a fast flow, and it's what I was referring to with the 00z EPS analysis last night.
  10. I think we're forgetting to some extent that the SSW and coupling is forcing the TPV to be in a favorable position for the 20th threat. That doesn't guarantee anything, but it certainly helps.
  11. It's majorly shifting toward the evolution I've been looking for as a result of dragging the TPV further southeast -- our upstream Pacific wave slows down and hangs back to its southwest. It's not directly phasing prematurely.
  12. We will be in the better pattern with legitimate threats shortly for sure, but yes right away it will not be the KU pattern. It could be a SECS pattern with the 1/20 and 1/24 periods. It's the period after that through mid February that will offer the potential for multiple KUs, IMO.
  13. There's a huge difference between freezing rain QPF and ice accretion. It wouldn't be as bad as what's modeled.
  14. I mean it's fixable for the coast, but I'm not going to complain if we get 6"+ of thump, then ice, then a CCB even if folks nearby get more than double my snowfall totals. It's certainly a possibility that the interior does better than the coast with this one.
  15. Not necessarily. You just need the Pacific shortwave to run southwest of the TPV so the Arctic boundary can already be established. You don’t want the shortwave quickly phasing with our TPV. The GFS and CMC are both too fast with our Pacific shortwave for a good outcome. EPS at 144: GFS at 132: Essentially, the GFS is not “hung back” enough, so it quickly partially phases with our TPV. As far as your amped point is concern, there is validity to it in that if it’s initially amped, it will be slower upon entry into the US a
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