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Dsnowx53 last won the day on February 23

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About Dsnowx53

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    New York Metro Weather

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    Rockville Centre, NY

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  1. The "problem" though is that with the shortwave being less held back, it does not amplify as much on its own. So while the wave certainly initially goes well to the north, it does not move as much in a SW to NE heading in the later panels. Last night's run was a higher ceiling scenario, IMO.
  2. We've got phasing! The shortwave being further north initially and less held back (Euro correcting a bias?) allowed more direct, clean phasing with the energy diving from the TPV.
  3. The GFS soundings are incredibly cold!
  4. Euro! It's much more amplified with the shortwave, actually making it its own separate, coherent feature, which allows it to take more of a SW to NE track rather than be a W to E sweeper. It's a legitimate shortwave entity separate from the TPV to the north, rather than embedded within it. And now for the weenie maps
  5. Dsnowx53

    Mid/Long Range Winter Pattern Discussion

    Verbatim, though, there are BL problems due to too much of a primary low.
  6. Dsnowx53

    Mid/Long Range Winter Pattern Discussion

    The broad evolution on the Euro is very similar to the March 21-22 storm. It has that whole "mess" of energy amplifying and phasing underneath a split flow and higher heights in SE Canada. It even has a parent wave going OTS with the initial PVA axis and the new wave tucking in near the coast along the new PVA axis.
  7. Dsnowx53

    Little Storm that could ( April 02 Threat)

    Soundings >>>>> sun angle.
  8. Dsnowx53

    Little Storm that could ( April 02 Threat)

    Crushed. Beautiful.
  9. Dsnowx53

    Little Storm that could ( April 02 Threat)

    Fabulous discussion from Upton. This event is certainly nothing to ignore or sneeze at...1-2" per hour rates likely with all of the lift in the dgz and relatively unstable columns, as well as solid fgen just underneath the dgz. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Still some questions as to exactly where bands of highest QPF will set up on Monday as fast-moving low pressure passes to the south. GFS/RAP, which were performing well with the position of banding in the Plains states this afternoon, show this axis passing just S of NYC/Long Island, while the latest extrapolated HRRR aims for Long Island, and the NAM/SREF set up more squarely over the entire area. Taking a blend of these and accounting for usual southerly model bias with frontogenetically force banding suggests this axis will skirt NYC and Long Island, running roughly from RDG-JFK-MTP. NAM 2m boundary layer temps may be a touch cold and tempered them with slightly warmer MOS, but the end result per resulting wet bulb temps still yields a precip type of snow, but with perhaps slightly lower SLR in urban NYC metro and NE NJ. Meanwhile, fcst soundings indicate a quick-hitting 3-4 hour period of moderate to even locally heavy snow possible, with snowfall rates of as much as 1-2 inches per hour as lift is maximized in the dendritic snow growth region, while lapse rates will be neutrally stable, approaching moist adiabatic. Those snowfall rates should overwhelm the warmer ground temps and allow snow to accumulate on roads mainly during and just after the AM commute. When all is said/done, expect 2-4 inch accumulation along the northernmost portion of the CWA, and 3-5 inches for NYC metro, Long Island, and coastal CT. There is potential for total accumulation of 6 inches in the higher elevations of NE NJ west of the Garden State Parkway, perhaps extending up along the Rockland/Orange border. Total accumulation on roads likely to be less than the storm total snow, so previously issued advisories for late tonight into early Mon afternoon remain in effect.
  10. Dsnowx53

    Little Storm that could ( April 02 Threat)

    Snowfall rates are going to be 1-2”+ per hour in some localized spots tomorrow morning. These soundings are very legit.
  11. Dsnowx53

    Mid/Long Range Winter Pattern Discussion

    Instead of the TPV directly being involved and messing up the angular momentum, we are now seeing a scenario where the large TPV quickly moves in and out of the area, with a lot of separate energy amplifying on its own in its wake. This is a much more classic snow setup and also more closely resembles the 6"+ April snowstorm composites. The TPV initially provides plenty of cold, while then gradually departing, leaving plenty of room for amplification in its wake.
  12. Dsnowx53

    Little Storm that could ( April 02 Threat)

    This is just the 6z NAM precip accumulation between 9z and 12z...a lot falls during this interval, which is well before peak daylight. Snow really should have no trouble accumulating on cold surfaces.
  13. Dsnowx53

    Little Storm that could ( April 02 Threat)

    If the NAM soundings are right, the snow will have no trouble accumulating on cold surfaces. The peak snow rates are also well before the sun angle gets all that high anyway.