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Dsnowx53

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Dsnowx53 last won the day on February 23 2018

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    NYMW - Doug Simonian

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  1. Dsnowx53

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    Also notice the troughing shifting equatorward in the Atlantic on the EPS. That's how you set up an inherently blockier pattern in the higher latitudes.
  2. Dsnowx53

    [Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Disc. #2

    The westerly wind burst is already occurring right now at the Dateline, and is why the models are already picking up on its responses and thus shifting to a better Pacific pattern. This is a good sign.
  3. This is a horribly grammatically written sentence, yet it's getting a lot of likes.
  4. This is how you can pull off a KU without all of the classic KU pre-loading ingredients pattern.
  5. And notice how slow the wind barbs are between our southern shortwave and the TPV! This is exactly what we want. The fast flow to the north, and the slower flow to the south. This is how we get a long duration event within a fast flow, and it's what I was referring to with the 00z EPS analysis last night.
  6. I think we're forgetting to some extent that the SSW and coupling is forcing the TPV to be in a favorable position for the 20th threat. That doesn't guarantee anything, but it certainly helps.
  7. It's majorly shifting toward the evolution I've been looking for as a result of dragging the TPV further southeast -- our upstream Pacific wave slows down and hangs back to its southwest. It's not directly phasing prematurely.
  8. We will be in the better pattern with legitimate threats shortly for sure, but yes right away it will not be the KU pattern. It could be a SECS pattern with the 1/20 and 1/24 periods. It's the period after that through mid February that will offer the potential for multiple KUs, IMO.
  9. There's a huge difference between freezing rain QPF and ice accretion. It wouldn't be as bad as what's modeled.
  10. I mean it's fixable for the coast, but I'm not going to complain if we get 6"+ of thump, then ice, then a CCB even if folks nearby get more than double my snowfall totals. It's certainly a possibility that the interior does better than the coast with this one.
  11. Not necessarily. You just need the Pacific shortwave to run southwest of the TPV so the Arctic boundary can already be established. You don’t want the shortwave quickly phasing with our TPV. The GFS and CMC are both too fast with our Pacific shortwave for a good outcome. EPS at 144: GFS at 132: Essentially, the GFS is not “hung back” enough, so it quickly partially phases with our TPV. As far as your amped point is concern, there is validity to it in that if it’s initially amped, it will be slower upon entry into the US and the TPV will run out ahead.
  12. Sunday morning Dendrite!
  13. Snow immediately piling up and pattern change are not the same thing. Suggesting that is insulting to the science of meteorology and the analysis that people have done in here for the past month. So yes, when that is the tone people convey in this thread, I'm going to outright dismiss it. Simple as that.
  14. This is what I mean. There is a slowing down and a pesudo split flow with our Pacific shortwave evidenced by the very loose gradient and the separation between our shortwave and the faster northern stream. Downstream is a much faster flow, but considering it's separate from our shortwave it allows the Arctic boundary to quickly get established out ahead of our storm, and thus move south, but remain near our area thanks to some subtle height rises. The fluidity and overall fast flow allows this beautiful balance to occur.
  15. The problem is people are looking too much for the typical KU checkpoints without realizing that waves along Arctic fronts are inherently more fluid patterns to begin with. You need some fast flow in order to get the Arctic baroclinicity ahead of our shortwave to begin with, and then just some transient North Atlantic ridging to keep the TPV somewhere near Southeast Canada. The Pacific shortwave moving underneath and/or southwest of that elongated TPV lobe actually forces it to slow down initially, since at that point it's essentially acting as a pseudo split flow. This is how you get a long-duration event within a fast flow.
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