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tombo82685

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About tombo82685

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    PhillyWx
  • Birthday 08/26/1985

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    Gilbertsville, PA

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  1. I was looking at the mjo vp200 filtered maps and the wave propagation maps and I still see a signal that it goes through, all be it a bit weaker in phases 5 and 6. I look at it in terms of a convection standpoint. Thunderstorms thrive in warmer water, there is a decent amount of warm water stacked up in that region and I just don't buy the convective wave dying off. I don't have the same level of expertise with mjo handling as you or isotherm, but that is just what I look at to see if things progress. Kind of like why I think the mjo will thrive more so this year in dateline forcing through maritime continent due to all the warm water to support convection.
  2. Understood, I'm just saying I think the mjo is going to be stronger than those rmm plots show. I'm not buying the death in phase 4 like those RMM plots are showing I think this goes around through 5 and 6. Though 5 and 6 may not be a robust wave, but I think the presence will be there. Unless you are saying influence fading as in other factors taking control like strat and what not
  3. What did you challenge my thoughts on? All you keep telling me is read isotherms posts.
  4. I have different methods I use for long range. I’m no where near as smart as isotherm with all the other stuff. But basically what you’re saying is because I don’t agree or know everything that he does that I can’t make an attempt at what the longer range may hold?
  5. I think the mjo will be in phase 5/6 around the 20th. If you look at the composite of nino decembers in those phases this is what you get. This is strictly if we are going off mjo forcing. Any type of strong strat displacement can change this. phase 5 phase 6
  6. What Tim said. It was more of a counter argument to pb who said the trough on the eps should be east. I’m saying that plenty of epo shots have started west and worked east and it has some backing from the mjo.
  7. I’m not saying it wasn’t, I’m just sharing my thoughts on what may happen. It has happened numerous times in the past that when we pop a -epo it goes into the west and plains first then comes east. The tropical forcing though from what I see doesn’t support sustained cold in the east before Christmas. Now if we get a big strat event that certainly can yield a cold dump.
  8. I have seen plenty of times where an epo ridge dumps the cold into the west and plains first which pumps the se ridge up. It's not a permanent feature as it should all work eastward. This is just my opinion, but the eps make more sense to me, than the gefs. The eps may be a bit to heavy with the trough into the west but the tropical forcing still doesn't look conducive in my eyes for sustained cold til after Christmas. Now any strat effects certainly can override that as there looks to be some strong wave 1 hits as we get inbetween the 15-20. I think the real flip to better pattern comes after Christmas. If we get that epo ridge the cold will want to press. SO I would look for a series of storms, first couple would be cutters then maybe around Christmas day itself as the trough continues to press east we get a wave along the front that could produce something.
  9. it's mainly sleet being counted as snow
  10. More bark than bite here in kop area, barely flurring. Though acy is down to .25 i believe
  11. I've not thrown in the towel on this system as you can ask @allsnow via texts, but def do favor still a miss to the south. The eps last night were encouraging. One thing I would say with all these northern stream vorts that are messing with the confluence the first one won't get into proper data rich area till friday. Then the couple after aren't till Saturday or so. So appreciable changes to the northern stream handling can certainly occur. Now whether thats good or bad, who knows. It would also help to keep increasing the strength of the southern wave. That will also help to push hgts out ahead of the system and get more of a primary into TN
  12. lol hahaa just checking
  13. Is that counting the norlun today though? If so you would have to cut that qpf
  14. Probably a good illustration here on one of the eps members. This low location would normally have precip much further nw than shown due to mentioned above
  15. Yea, but also remember at this timeframe the low may be occluded and or have a very small precip field due to NVA
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