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mcscrew

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About mcscrew

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  1. Their latest forecast discussion is also strongly worded: .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 304 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 -Impactful precipitation expected from Friday night through Saturday night, especially south of a Muskegon to Mt Pleasant line. The latest models runs generally show a swath of 2.5 to 3.5 inches of precipitation through the southern half of the CWA with lesser amounts further north. This is very unusual and around record values for this time of the year for a two day period. With pwat values up over an inch a stalled out 925 mb to 850 mb frontal zone in place during much of the Friday night through Saturday Evening period which will be parallel to the mid to upper level flow...a prolonged heavy qpf event will occur. The main wave kicks out of the Southern Plains Saturday evening and through the Great Lakes Region later Saturday night. With multiple types of precipitation expected the potential for significant impacts is much higher than normal. -Areal flooding followed by river flooding possible. Some river locations are likely to exceed flood stage. The rarity of this precipitation event combined with the river levels that are already higher than normal at nearly all sites spells hydro trouble for southern parts of the CWA. This is the area where the highest amount of precipitation will be in the form of rain. -Increased risk for significant amounts of freezing rain, wind, sleet and snow Saturday and Saturday night. Travel impacts and power outages are likely. A shallow layer of arctic air will drop down from Ontario on Friday and undercut the heavy QPF event here in the CWA Friday night into Saturday evening. This will support a mainly snow evening for northern parts of the CWA...wintry mix for central areas and rain to freezing rain for southern parts. Overall the trends are towards a slightly colder solution with the transition to winter impacts a few hours earlier than previously forecasted. The warm sector also appears to have less of a chance to make it further into the CWA Saturday evening. Warning level winter impacts look likely. A risk for well over a half inch of freezing rain is looking more likely with time near and south of Interstate 96. Combine this with winds gusting over 30 mph on Saturday into Saturday night will enhance the risk for power outages. Across the north...forecasted snow amounts have been increased and the risk for a foot of snow is on the rise.
  2. And IIRC, Dec 1989 ended up being a very cold month as well (with very little snow)
  3. I didn't see anything in the storm reports or mention from NWS Mt Holly that they were sending a survey team. Any ideas if they are?
  4. Why would the 11pm advisory be critical?
  5. Maybe a bad sensor? The 6 hour Max is 80. I'll email NWS PHI as you suggested. 04 18:53 W 3 10.00 Fair CLR 53 36 80 51 52% NA NA 29.99 1015.1 04 17:53 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 55 36 49% NA NA 30.00 1015.4 04 16:53 SW 3 10.00 Fair CLR 61 37 41% NA NA 30.01 1015.8 04 15:53 S 5 10.00 Fair CLR 62 38 41% NA NA 30.01 1015.8 04 14:53 S 7 10.00 Fair CLR 63 39 41% NA NA 30.02 1016.0 04 13:53 S 6 9.00 Fair CLR 51 38 61% NA NA 30.04 1016.8 04 12:53 S 3 7.00 Fair CLR 51 37 77 29 59% NA NA 30.06 1017.5
  6. From the Mesowest interface, I see Trenton's temp jumping up and down. Any idea what would cause this? https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KTTN&time=LOCAL Tabular Listing of 327 Observations from 02/03/2019 11:30 EST to 02/04/2019 12:20 EST: Time (EST) 2.0m Temperature ° F 2.0m Dew Point ° F 2.0m Wet bulb temperature ° F 2.0m Relative Humidity % 10.0m Wind Speed mph 10.0m Wind Direction Pressure in Sea level pressure in Altimeter in Weather conditions Visibility miles Ceiling feet 6 Hr High Temperature ° F 6 Hr Low Temperature ° F 24 Hr High Temperature ° F 24 Hr Low Temperature ° F Quality Control 12:20 51.8 35.6 44.1 54 5.8 SSE 29.84 30.07 Clear 7.00 OK 12:15 51.8 35.6 44.1 54 6.9 SSE 29.85 30.08 Clear 8.00 OK 12:10 51.8 35.6 44.1 54 5.8 S 29.85 30.08 Clear 10.00 OK 12:05 77.0 37.4 55.7 24 6.9 SSE 29.85 30.08 Clear 10.00 OK 12:00 75.2 37.4 55.0 25 6.9 S 29.86 30.09 Clear 10.00 OK 11:55 75.2 37.4 55.0 25 5.8 S 29.86 30.09 Clear 9.00 OK 11:53 51.1 37.0 44.3 58 5.8 S 29.86 30.07 30.09 Clear 9.00 OK 11:50 50.0 35.6 43.2 58 4.6 S 29.86 30.09 Clear 9.00 OK 11:45 71.6 37.4 53.6 29 3.5 S 29.86 30.09 Clear 9.00 OK 11:40 69.8 37.4 52.8 31 3.5 S 29.87 30.10 Clear 9.00 OK 11:35 64.4 37.4 50.6 37 3.5 S 29.87 30.10 Clear 8.00 OK 11:30 64.4 37.4 50.6 37 3.5 S 29.87 30.10 Clear 8.00 OK 11:25 59.0 37.4 48.2 44 4.6 SSE 29.87 30.10 Clear 8.00 OK 11:20 53.6 37.4 45.7 54 3.5 S 29.88 30.11 Clear 9.00 OK 11:15 51.8 35.6 44.1 54 4.6 SE 29.87 30.10 Clear 8.00 OK
  7. Does anyone know the requirement of a snow squall warning vs using a special weather statement?
  8. Why wouldn’t they follow nws statements? Nws isn’t reliable news? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  9. Some NWS WFOs have statements out... not sure who really pays attention to them though. I cut alot of the details out. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 627 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 627 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 ...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE / WASHINGTON METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON... and for Mt Holly: Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 531 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland and southern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Light snow will occur across Delmarva and southern New Jersey late Friday afternoon and evening. Roads may become slippery during the evening commute.
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