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LarryCosgrove

Meteorologist
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About LarryCosgrove

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    WEATHERAmerica

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    Texas, United States

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  1. Weather satellites can help reveal the various features which will dictate conditions in North America as we get closer to the holiday period. What stands out the most on the mosaic view is the renewed vigor of the subtropical jet stream. Note the linkage with the current storm in the Great Lakes region originates just above Papua/New Guinea! The phasing of the two entities helps to energize the mid-latitude cyclone. Downwind of an emerging West Coast ridge, strong cold advection occurs which will be a factor in forecasts for the eastern 1/2 of the nation.
  2. With talk of the first meaningful Arctic intrusion of the season increasing for next week, I wanted to point out two concerns that have arisen as to viability of the numerical model predictions which show much colder air. One issue is snow cover, with the lower 48 states being mostly barren of the white stuff. If you look north of the border, Canada, the Arctic Islands and nearly all of Russia has an impressive snowpack and ice sheet. This frigid display is necessary for generation of cAk regimes. So all that is needed to drain any chilled values into the U.S. would be an emphatic high-latitud
  3. Commodity and energy traders, along with winter weather enthusiasts, got something of a morale boost from the most recent CFS and ECMWF model forecasts heading for the second week of December. Viewed from the 500MB level, the American climate series showed a fairly amplified pattern with a deep trough across the eastern half of North America. The European weeklies had a stronger surface temperature reflection, trying to set up a warm West vs. cold Central/East alignment. I always check such radical turns in numerical model forecasts against analog summaries compiled for the DJFM period. Taking
  4. A caution I would like to throw out to the group is that while many are clamoring for a colder winter with lots of snow and ice along the Eastern Seaboard, none of the model forecasts or analog collection seems favorable to such a scenario. You will notice on the ensemble platforms in the 11 - 15 day plenty of positive 500MB height anomalies within the Arctic Circle. But the actual contour depiction has -no- signatures (closed ridge contours above 534dcm north of 45 N Latitude). That can change, but more and more the first month of the DJFM sequence looks to have southwest flow aloft and warm
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