Snowy Hibbo

G’day everyone, My first seasonal prediction for the NH this season: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/09/06/early-september-seasonal-2020-21-winter-preliminary-outlook/ Western & Central US and the Northern Alps to benefit from a Canadian Vortex/Aleutian High and +NAO driven weather outlook for the winter ahead from the preliminary look of factors (still got more to loom at in coming weeks...). Not looking as great for the Eastern US, could be okay for New England, will get more specific closer to winter. - Zac

Weak to borderline La Niña heading into NH winter at the looks of things, if we take the multi model ensemble on face value.

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/02/16/north-america-on-the-long-term-16th-feb/ My final long range snowfall forecast for the season. Looks bleak for the Eastern US unfortunately. Similar negating factors as there have been all winter. I also verified my seasonal forecast from November. I predicted an average season, that ended up being below average for the Northeast coast. The interior didn’t do much better either. My verification was much better in the Western US.

I think I was for a higher amount than Dave IIRC. But lower than the general consensus at the start of winter. He’s certainly the top of the pack I’d say. I think I was probably a bit more optimistic than it turned out to be, compared to the reality. But it was pretty clear early on it was going to be a wait to February, which obviously hasn’t turned out either. Relative to everyone else, it doesn’t look so bad, I guess. Pretty speculative to suggest it was the fault of Siberian snow cover/sea ice. It tends to be more multi-faceted than that. The base state in the tr

RE: Discussions of stratosphere and the big +AAM spike. https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/01/22/north-america-on-the-long-term-22nd-jan-2/ The latest blog update for North America (the first of 2020, finally) from my perspective. PNW/BC/Northern Rockies to remain good for the next fortnight, reducing in the second week of Feb. California/the SW/Southern Rockies to improve for the latter half of February (maybe a bit earlier) Eastern US expected to improve for the last 15-20 days of February (2nd-3rd weeks of Feb, possibly into the 4th week) IMO.

It’s looking very good at the moment.

Well that's the thing honestly. There's been so so so many posts arguing about the MJO, but at the end of the day, if it doesn't get to the extratropics and the poles, it's impact is rather limited. Again it's going to be gradual. But a positive AAM is a positive sign. Nothing definitive and no sudden equations or conclusions to be made there, but is a hopeful sign. Cautiously optimistic is the best place to be IMO.

Decent rains are on the forecast for the firegrounds, courtesy of the MJO pass and the late monsoon finally arriving: 31mm is about 1.2 inches of rain. 57mm is about 2.25 inches of rain. Not meaning any disrespect as you wouldn’t know, but the Australian is a climate-denying joke. It’s basically if Fox News was an Australian newspaper. Most of the fires that threatened homes in the country were started by lighting. The usual spots got their typical fire-bugs, and were controlled quickly, but the actual major bushfires are all natural fir

With all due respect, I don’t think relying on a single (strong, yes, long-term, no) MJO pass to deliver 3-4 weeks of cold weather is very advisable. The MJO pass is all over by the last days of the month. Maybe 5-7 days after that, but the Arctic and Stratosphere are both unfavourable. I don’t think it’s sustainable, sorry. We will neutralise in the early days of February (not torch), thanks to the various other factors that also make up the equation in addition to the MJO.

You can’t deny the pattern will be good for the Eastern US for the last two weeks of January, based on the strong MJO pass over Phase 7-8: I don’t see the same support for February, the MJO basically goes dark again after a counteracting opposite MJO signal passes over Maritime Continent and to a lesser extent, the Pacific. The Indian Ocean dominant base state is re-established by the latest EC-46. CFS still plays the weaker Early February card, and perhaps a better late February (next GWO cycle?). But with an uncooperative stratospher

My latest European snowfall long term outlook: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/01/07/europe-on-the-long-term-7th-january/

This sums up the situation on the ground (Mallacoota, ABC):

The mixture of the +IOD and the SH SSW that induced a -AAO have led to this pattern. A negative Antarctic Oscillation brings us snow in the winter, but brings hot and dry conditions in summer.

Just to add on to this, here’s my latest outlook for North America, discussing long term weather prospects for both sides of the continent: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/30/north-america-on-the-long-term-30th-december/ Sticking to the same themes, but just more details, etc.

I don’t really see anything exciting. There is probably something in there during that 6th-9th Jan period. Then you get a -EAMT > Aleutian ridging > Western troughing > Eastern ridging for a week after that. The pattern is up and down, some threats here and there, but it’s largely more of the same, except maybe for that 6th-9th period. The problem is that there’s still IOD forcing, and there’s also some tropical forcing in the MJO domain that may be more conducive to Eastern cold. So you have two competing signals. We have GWO