Snowy Hibbo

Is it though? Sure there are heat and momentum fluxes and noted anomalies in wave forecasts that would indicate a destabilisation of the SPV: But a warming isn’t really what I would call this. More of a slowing and stagnation to the usual cooling and building of the winter SPV. So do the short term impacts of this really matter, not really. If this means a weaker vortex on a more sub-seasonal to seasonal scale, as say CFS suggests, well that would be interesting. For the moment, there isn’t a huge amount to deduce from this, other than a pleasant somewhat interestin

Running some basic SST panels for ENSO vs PDO vs South Pacific domains (from 1984 to 2019) - Strong Nina as a control So standard Nina form not ideal for Eastern snowfall, with a +NAO and Western troughing. - Years with SST patterns similar to that forecast this winter by ECMWF: A potentially more interesting pattern for North America, Canadian trough, -NAO/Scandi block and Aleutian ridging.

Some interesting forecasting surrounding NAO on a variety of models: Potentially an early winter?

Looks like they just slapped lines and colours on a map, lol.

Just passing through, not much to say yet. The usual maps coming out to play….

Well that aged pretty well, hey. Enjoy the spring everyone

As per the polar vortex reconsolidating in the stratosphere and coming towards the troposphere to impact upon surface weather: (colour scheme flipped for some reason) It is still negative for a while, but the last week of Feb should see a change to a +AO base state for a little while.

Hot hand fallacy.

Absolutely massive +NAMT in the past 5 days. Biggest torque this winter, so big influence. Zero chance that has got nothing to do with the current great pattern. It’s totally pumping up the momentum into the low, creating the big snowstorm. But one also needs to see that it’s still a La Niña, and the atmosphere now looks it with a proper -AAM. The positive torques have pushed it up a bit into Phase 4 GWO, but it’s still Nina-esque. A lot more than earlier in the winter, And you take a look at that: And the current forecast in a week on EC:

Nice for NYC: And decent for Philadelphia, with more in the pipeline:

Just a quick check-in: AO and NAO still negative for sometime Expected to stay negative into the mid-Feb period. GEFS wants to keep a MJO Phase 7-8-1 vibe in the tropics, which could provide some more support for the Eastern US in terms of snowfall. But the drier atmosphere in the GOM towards the Atlantic may indicate less moisture to tap into for big systems. This will improve from about the 5th as shown below.

Frictional Torque is positive, so a jet extension in the Pacific is possible. Doubt the MJO is going to do that for a while.

Perhaps in retrospect, one of the reasons this pattern has not been as exciting as I certainly thought it would be is because the record +EAMT that was forecast and modelled earlier this month and later in Dec, did not actually eventuate. Note the meagre jump in EAMT, despite those big highs and the strong Aleutian. And hence we are left with a mild -AAM and going through the Phase 2 & 3 GWO orbit. Something I certainly didn’t see coming. Which raises questions, as to how the SSW occurred without a strong +EAMT event. Ok, strong Siberian High an

You’d probably need to read their actual report before contending much, they are a business after all, they try to get it right. Doing long range is hard. I’m not going to blame anyone for trying.

Just putting things into perspective: