Jump to content

Snowy Hibbo

Master Wx Expert
  • Content Count

    675
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

Snowy Hibbo last won the day on October 28

Snowy Hibbo had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

3,225 Excellent

Social Info

About Snowy Hibbo

  • Rank
    Star Member
  • Birthday April 5

Personal Information

  • Location
    Melbourne, Australia

Recent Profile Visitors

860 profile views
  1. Jeez you don’t see that neat straight lines setup very often. It’s interesting and one can certainly argue that it is a battle between the +EPO and the Pacific, which doesn’t shape up well for that medium term (but like I said earlier, it’s hard to say how the Aleutian low is sticking when the jet is forecast to retract and there is no +EAMT to back it up). And the Atlantic which for the medium term looks pretty bloody good. Good for the UK, and good for the US East Coast. Particularly for those who want coastal snowfall. Whether that holds for a short while or a long while, depends on how the Pacific pans out however. You can thank the -AAM for the chance to get that Eastern US troughing in this instance. Anyway looks like the potential chances for East Coast snowfall ATM in terms of dates are: 18th-19th December 22nd-24th December
  2. Less than GEFS’s bias though. Ultimately all the models have been struggling with the variable climatic factors. But EPS is still the better model.
  3. Big difference there is the difference between a proper -NAM with -NAO and Aleutian ridging to go versus sustained Aleutian low that pushes everything south. The former does make more sense within the GSDM, there’s no momentum to keep a strong Aleutian Low there. And the GEFS look is very -AAM like, with it’s meridional fashion, as in step with the pattern. But that’s also a lot of faith needed to hold that strong -NAM look. GWO Phase 1/2 doesn’t mind it: The Atlantic is a bigger player in this composite, versus the Arctic itself. Which is why the East Coast low isn’t positioned that well with a SE Ridge underneath. It gets more Arctic focused in the Phase 2 GWO composite. Not bad at all. But we also cannot forget this: Be careful out there.
  4. Scary? How do you actually fix crime problems? Hint: it’s not by putting in more police, or letting them be more brutal. Or removing immigrants. It’s by looking at the cause of this crime, and solving social problems with social programs for the poor. Only Democrats really support this sort of action.
  5. But it is still there. And it's still the underlying base state, which sets the tone.
  6. The idea is always there. It's about actually looking at these factors in terms of their real world impact, rather than living in the land of hyped up hypotheticals. The potential is there, but the tools to unlock it are not there, and I doubt BAM see it either.
  7. The latest conclusions from my North American long term outlook: After the New Year, we should see deeper cold risks per the GWO cycle for the Central and Eastern North American regions. The short term good pattern over the Eastern US will dissipate into ridging in the latter half of December. It might get more interesting in the days prior to January, with the aforementioned colder risk in Jan. This doesn’t mean there is no chance of snowfall, rather it is more limited. After the current short term Southern US snowfall risk, chances will be lower until January, or at least the last week of December. More details here: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/09/north-america-on-the-long-term-9th-december/
  8. It's interesting to observe the previous +EAMT transition into a -EPO, along with the counteracting balance that strengthens the EPO process, from the back of the Aleutian Low. Now this feedback loop also goes the other way with the strengthening -EPO helping to stifle the momentum increase, and slowly weakens this iteration of a strengthened Aleutian Low. This is pretty obvious below with a notable extension of the North Pacific Jetstream that forms the EPO domain blocking, but then a quiet retraction of the jet stream past the 10th towards the pole depicts a slip back into a weakening Aleutian low process with it's power pushing towards the north for the time being. You can see this in the latest EC with the train of cyclones and anti cyclones at the latitude of CONUS, with certainly look like a more -GLAAM esque look, with meridional anomalies and deposits across the board, but notably not in the NAO domain and the Kamchatka region with a zonal look going beyond the Day 10 period. That said, December 15th-20th certainly interests me, in addition to what comes around on Dec 10th-11th.
  9. AG or VP for her IMO. The kind of candidate that appeals to probably the largest span of the Democratic Party.
  10. Because there’s more to it than one simple chart. Yes it’s slowly moving towards more Nino-esque ideas. But no it’s not a “typical Nino” right now, largely because “typical” anything doesn’t really occur in the real world. Putting the atmosphere into a box and only talking about it in one way is pretty pointless.
  11. And I'd also argue that this "better" period has increased potential, but not nearly as much as in say January and February. It's more of a short term pattern change, then the Aleutian clears things out. Then you have to wait for the polar domain and the stratosphere to respond. It's probably a watch and wait sort of thing.
×
×
  • Create New...