Snowy Hibbo

As per the polar vortex reconsolidating in the stratosphere and coming towards the troposphere to impact upon surface weather: (colour scheme flipped for some reason) It is still negative for a while, but the last week of Feb should see a change to a +AO base state for a little while.

Hot hand fallacy.

Absolutely massive +NAMT in the past 5 days. Biggest torque this winter, so big influence. Zero chance that has got nothing to do with the current great pattern. It’s totally pumping up the momentum into the low, creating the big snowstorm. But one also needs to see that it’s still a La Niña, and the atmosphere now looks it with a proper -AAM. The positive torques have pushed it up a bit into Phase 4 GWO, but it’s still Nina-esque. A lot more than earlier in the winter, And you take a look at that: And the current forecast in a week on EC:

Nice for NYC: And decent for Philadelphia, with more in the pipeline:

Just a quick check-in: AO and NAO still negative for sometime Expected to stay negative into the mid-Feb period. GEFS wants to keep a MJO Phase 7-8-1 vibe in the tropics, which could provide some more support for the Eastern US in terms of snowfall. But the drier atmosphere in the GOM towards the Atlantic may indicate less moisture to tap into for big systems. This will improve from about the 5th as shown below.

Frictional Torque is positive, so a jet extension in the Pacific is possible. Doubt the MJO is going to do that for a while.

Perhaps in retrospect, one of the reasons this pattern has not been as exciting as I certainly thought it would be is because the record +EAMT that was forecast and modelled earlier this month and later in Dec, did not actually eventuate. Note the meagre jump in EAMT, despite those big highs and the strong Aleutian. And hence we are left with a mild -AAM and going through the Phase 2 & 3 GWO orbit. Something I certainly didn’t see coming. Which raises questions, as to how the SSW occurred without a strong +EAMT event. Ok, strong Siberian High an

You’d probably need to read their actual report before contending much, they are a business after all, they try to get it right. Doing long range is hard. I’m not going to blame anyone for trying.

Just putting things into perspective:

SSW has already happened. But at least it’s cold. That’s how it works. You need some moisture and better placement. It will come.

Here we go:

NYT forecast favouring the two Democrats. Looking good for them.

Could you share NAO if you have it? Thanks And does anyone know where one can find that “source of cold” plot?

He’s beating a dead horse? Is everyone not on the same page? It’s good.