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Snowy Hibbo

Master Wx Expert
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About Snowy Hibbo

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  • Birthday April 5

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    Melbourne, Australia

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  1. Snowy Hibbo

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    BTW I didn't mean to disrespect or question the integrity of your forecasts, more of a general statement making sure people check all sources, regardless of previous thoughts or what you want to see.
  2. Snowy Hibbo

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Fair enough, but the idea is not to take a stance, until you have reviewed all of the data, rather than take a stance, and find stuff that agrees. There will always be supporting data for a chosen stance, but whether it is noise or signal, cannot be seen unless you aren't biased to things you want to see. I like all humans, am guilty of this and I am still improving upon this, but it is important to acknowledge this, and not to ignore data that doesn't support your chosen stance. It's also important in my opinion to use verification for models. This is why I mainly use EC and UKMO for direct charts and data, as they have higher relative verification. Same with the NMME and EUROSIPS, as they carry more weight, with their multiple models. However they don't see important outliers. So all modelling has issues, it is important to acknowledge them, and use them well. That said, the only real issues with the cold forecast are the QBO and as I mentioned in my blog, this weird Nina atmospheric feedback.
  3. Snowy Hibbo

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    And as promised, my first real proper winter forecast on the blog. https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/october-preliminary-northern-hemisphere.html A good hard look into all the things we have been talking about here and on the Tele thread, and making some conclusions based upon that. An abstract of my forecast. Full Link for the explanation and the 500mb anomalies map that I have produced down the bottom.
  4. Snowy Hibbo

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    That's sad. I've got enough data though, thanks for trying.
  5. Snowy Hibbo

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Hey @33andrain or anyone else with WxBell, would you be able to post the EPS 46 snowfall chart for Siberia? Thanks very much in advance. Anyway, aiming for a 10-11pm EST blog post, starting to really zoom in on the winter forecast.
  6. Snowy Hibbo

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    I see the Aleutian region as far harder to decipher, compared to the Atlantic, just in my humble opinion. Though I can start to see a far more southerly Aleutian low than normal, given the set up in the Bering Sea. Interested to see what occurs into Siberia, and where the Aleutian starts to lock to.
  7. Snowy Hibbo

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Thanks for that. Clearly need to check before posting next time And in answer to the Ben Noll tweet above from @uofmiami, there's a good reason for that, and a far more interesting underlying factor. Say hello to your forecasted off-the-charts Arctic setup. I feel a tingle, just a hint that this may be a sign of things to come. Everything but the QBO is falling into place here.
  8. Snowy Hibbo

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Winter is well and truly coming. In other news: Rather like my thinking for the Pacific domain, not so much for the Atlantic domain, but still same result for the Eastern US.
  9. Snowy Hibbo

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    ADT stable at 911.5mb, 143kts. I'll go 925mb for the minimum aircraft recon numbers.
  10. Snowy Hibbo

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Does this cranky guy have a name? Seems very anonymous, not a fan of anonymous weather commentators, particularly if they attack the NHC. It's simply dangerous what he said.
  11. Snowy Hibbo

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    That Michael was going to be weak, stating it had 80-90 mph winds at the time (Recon at the time said 120mph).
  12. Snowy Hibbo

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Will be my number one choice for predicting hurricanes long term from now on.... Good to see FV3 also getting in early, good stuff from it.
  13. Snowy Hibbo

    Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

    Wow. When pondering this a few days back, it still seemed rather remote to actually happening. Good job HWRF....
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