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Snowy Hibbo last won the day on October 28 2019
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3,837 ExcellentAbout Snowy Hibbo

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- Birthday April 5
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Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Snowy Hibbo replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
As per the polar vortex reconsolidating in the stratosphere and coming towards the troposphere to impact upon surface weather: (colour scheme flipped for some reason) It is still negative for a while, but the last week of Feb should see a change to a +AO base state for a little while. -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Snowy Hibbo replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
Hot hand fallacy. -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Snowy Hibbo replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
Absolutely massive +NAMT in the past 5 days. Biggest torque this winter, so big influence. Zero chance that has got nothing to do with the current great pattern. It’s totally pumping up the momentum into the low, creating the big snowstorm. But one also needs to see that it’s still a La Niña, and the atmosphere now looks it with a proper -AAM. The positive torques have pushed it up a bit into Phase 4 GWO, but it’s still Nina-esque. A lot more than earlier in the winter, And you take a look at that: And the current forecast in a week on EC: -
Snowy Hibbo started following 2021 Georgia Runoffs in January and **1/31/21-2/2/21 - MECS**
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**1/31/21-2/2/21 - MECS**
Snowy Hibbo replied to earthlight's topic in Archived Winter Storm Threads
Nice for NYC: And decent for Philadelphia, with more in the pipeline: -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Snowy Hibbo replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
Just a quick check-in: AO and NAO still negative for sometime Expected to stay negative into the mid-Feb period. GEFS wants to keep a MJO Phase 7-8-1 vibe in the tropics, which could provide some more support for the Eastern US in terms of snowfall. But the drier atmosphere in the GOM towards the Atlantic may indicate less moisture to tap into for big systems. This will improve from about the 5th as shown below. -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Snowy Hibbo replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
Frictional Torque is positive, so a jet extension in the Pacific is possible. Doubt the MJO is going to do that for a while. -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Snowy Hibbo replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
Perhaps in retrospect, one of the reasons this pattern has not been as exciting as I certainly thought it would be is because the record +EAMT that was forecast and modelled earlier this month and later in Dec, did not actually eventuate. Note the meagre jump in EAMT, despite those big highs and the strong Aleutian. And hence we are left with a mild -AAM and going through the Phase 2 & 3 GWO orbit. Something I certainly didn’t see coming. Which raises questions, as to how the SSW occurred without a strong +EAMT event. Ok, strong Siberian High an -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Snowy Hibbo replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
You’d probably need to read their actual report before contending much, they are a business after all, they try to get it right. Doing long range is hard. I’m not going to blame anyone for trying. -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Snowy Hibbo replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
Just putting things into perspective: -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Snowy Hibbo replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
SSW has already happened. But at least it’s cold. That’s how it works. You need some moisture and better placement. It will come. -
2021 Georgia Runoffs in January
Snowy Hibbo replied to Upstate25's topic in Political Discussion - 45andBeyond
NYT forecast favouring the two Democrats. Looking good for them. -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Snowy Hibbo replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
Could you share NAO if you have it? Thanks And does anyone know where one can find that “source of cold” plot? -
Met Winter 20-21: Pattern Drivers & Evolution
Snowy Hibbo replied to griteater's topic in Weather Discussion
He’s beating a dead horse? Is everyone not on the same page? It’s good.