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NY NJ PA Weather

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About NY NJ PA Weather

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    Steve DiMartino

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    Freehold, NJ

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  1. There is no way the EPS or any guidance beyond 3 or 4 days have a good handle on all the Vorticities at 500 MB that will trigger a winter storm or two. Just get me the pattern I am seeing and roll the dice. No need to pine over GFS/ECMWF beyond 120 at this point IMO.
  2. The best way to eliminate volatility in models in terms of the overall pattern is to consider what is driving the pattern now and what would have to change in order to have a pattern change in any situation. Once you understand the trigger in the pattern evolution you can separate between the BS solutions and the higher potential ones. As a result, you can further reduce the volatility overall.
  3. Well.... the 12Z guidance certainly lines up nicely with the LRT Premium idea that this pattern is not going anywhere anytime soon. ;-) .
  4. Agree. You can't really do details this far out, but man, if I was dreaming of a White Christmas THIS is what I would want to see to at least give me a chance. Talk about impressive.
  5. I am loving what I am seeing here in the guidance! This set up screams of winter weather potential, maybe even a storm or two before or around Christmas. If you like winter storms, you want to see this pattern. If you like cold weather, you will LOVE this pattern. Plus, I am getting a lot of observations stating this block is not going away any time soon. The best part of this 10-day forecast is that this data is supported by observations. In all forecasting, observations should always lead the way. This is why when someone sends me a 300 HR GFS forecast I ask, okay show me the observations that would get you to this solution? What's your trigger? What's the process? In this case, the triggers and process to get from point A to Z is right in front of us and it is so much fun to watch!
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