First post. This winter the MJO forecasts have been very poor. Just 10 days ago they never had the promulgation into phase 8 much less with moderate amplitude. Their forecasts have missed the intensity of the forcing continually. I think the SSW and its cause since it is a rare event that there are not enough inputs in any of the models to account for its effect. Any algo is only as good as its data. IMO this renders these forecasts unreliable. Love this board and discussion!