BL74

That’s why I used the actual 850 maps. It’s pretty “shallow” cold air. Yes, it’s a mean.. but it illustrates how the airmass is moderating. With the right track, something could work. But the op, and the eps, shows us how it could bad, quickly....

12z vs 0z... from above, those negative height anoms that move into the PNA region would suggest some se ridging is possible. If it links up with that Canadian heights, well.... yuck

ehh...

If we had a dollar for every coastal the CFS spit out...

I don’t think that’s the case. The warm air can win out faster/underdone. But the warmer look is strictly because the storm is slower and the antecedent airmass gets warmer. But the modeled precip usually gets here faster when models agree on timing.

yea, that’s pretty impressive. I guess the HP could get it done on its own. But if the timing is off, and that Hp gets offshore , some folks will be disappointed. Guess I’m leaning towards the coastal areas.

For the next weekend storm, starting to lose some things. One of the main things is the preceding “storm”... last 12 gfs runs. Watch the coast of Maine. From having a sub 985lp to an open wave... that’s not gonna help as a 50/50 and slow the arriviving Hp ahead of the storm. concurrently, check out the antecedent airmass become less favorable, and it warm up faster;

This may be off topic, but wonder if that new eruption in the Philippines (Taal) has any affect in the weather down the road. Latest report was ash making it 9m/15km. That I believe is enough to hit the strat. I guess volume of material making it there plays a role too. Out of my Amateur expertise, that’s for sure. Feel free to add in if you can contribute something scientific on it.

Verbatim, you can still get a front end thump with the set up. Fresh arctic airmass in place from the previous system with HP overtop.... now, if the spacing changes, which is very possible, then it can fall apart. (Stagnant airmass, Hp rolls too far eSt, shortwave slows down yada yada). Too early to say otherwise.

It’s impressive on the euro..No inversion

No. There’s Clearly a lobe by Hudson Bay.

I don’t think one model has performed well on any of the. storms this winter so far...

I wouldn’t use 2m temp anom maps to make your argument of a lack of arctic air... there’s a lobe of the PV. Any positive heights along the west coast would allow arctic dumps. There’s plenty of it available.

Here’s the euro snow map since i didn’t see it posted :