BL74

all kidding aside; don’t get your hopes up. Long ways to go, and lots of moving parts. Hostile pac and a weaker block on the 18z gfs. Gonna be a loooooong 10-14 days

My post wasn’t really related to the MJO. Focus on the weakening of the IO standing wave. There has been some MJO action in other phases, but the destructive interference with that IO wave has made the pac volatile. Once, or should I say IF, we see that wave weaken, we should see more influence for WPAC forcing. I’m no expert on this, but learning some things along the way.

As far as that standing wave/IOD look, another forecast attempt at weakening it, even some subsidence in that region forecasted in the next 7-10 days. Let’s see if it comes to fruition, or another false attempt by guidance to remove it.

Gfs gonna score the Victory here lol

CMC gets to 38n, jogs East and you to the BM:

Ukie went inland for the 16-18th threat..

Some GEFS go back to the southern solution. 0z GEFS vs 18z GEFS

Look at the H5 differences in the NAO domain with the Gfs Op vs the GEFS. the op weaker, slower with the Davis straights look. Meanwhile, the GEFS develop it faster and pinches it off into a mature block. One would think those scenarios would be reversed in the modeling, given the lower resolution of the GEFS. Expect more volatility as we head forward. It’s a nice signal on the GEFS.

The CWB from that 50/50 low is trying again. Forms our Davis straights /-NAO block in perfect timing. Lots of time to screw it up

We get some westerlies over the dateline for the first time in a long time.

Check out the source region... ridiculous

awesome catch anyhow, GEFS indi’s:

thought you meant srefs*

ehhh maybe not. Thought this would look better..