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BL74

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  1. BL74

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    BL74 replied to swamplover56's topic in Weather Spotlight

    Check out the precip over the dateline (180°). Always a positive.
  2. BL74
    I believe the dropsonde only* found 931mb, so estimates are a little off.
  3. BL74
    Hot towers :
  4. BL74
    Just to note, and could be noise. Cloud tops are a bit warmer than earlier overall in the CDO.
  5. BL74
    You also have to consider beam height. I imagine thats a good 5K feet up.
  6. BL74
    Diurnal max. Look it up. (Temp gradient) i think she’s struggling a bit, and has been all day. Not downplaying outcomes here; but just speaking on her structure and intensity.
  7. BL74
    Time stamp I’m guessing is either 2240z or 21z ? Seems a little old I guess? Would like to see an updated microwave pass
  8. BL74
    Until we see this tidy up. I’d expect max winds to stay closer to those earlier readings from recon.
  9. BL74
    Ehh.. still some restriction on that western flank. (Was SW flank earlier). And the eye still looks a bit ragged (better than earlier). I’d be surprised if this went cat 5 at this point, even with a favorable environment ahead. Just my 2 cents. Even aside from the ERC’s today, she struggled. Something else at play here that’s capping her.
  10. BL74
    Gfs: I’ll come back to reality euro: HOLD MY BEER... not sure if that’s a better scenario with highest wind maximas staying offshore while still getting a pounding from the wind field of exponentially awful!
  11. BL74
    Anyone have the minute by minute floater link for Florence?
  12. BL74
  13. BL74
    Last 3 GEFS runs
  14. BL74
    Just remember; the gfs is decoupled from the ocean. Take those pressures with a grain of salt.
  15. BL74
    Little more influence from the confluence up north on 18z gfs thru 60
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