BL74

End of the GEFS are vastly different, (aka better looking) than the op. No surprise there. As usual, stick with the Ens in the 8-15 day range as well as using common sense.

friday Sunday in 2 weeks: comparing 0z eps to 12z eps:

No. Except maybe higher terrain in the interior.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00030.1 This paper is worth the read if you got time. If you don’t, we’ll, here the cliff notes:

Was thinking that by Dec 18th-20th, we’d see a more favorable pattern set up. But kind of hesitant upon seeing the ECM MJO forecast: may be close to The 20th-25th The next Scandinavian ridge showing on on the GEFS/EPS fails to stand its ground on the 13-15th timeframe. That, in conjunction with the pv retreating back towards Siberia within this time frame, makes me think it just could be the latter 3rd of the month, rather than mid month. Just my .02c.

I’m thinking more like Tuesday morning....

Euro on top, GFS bottom big difference here is the height field over top of SE Canada

Another jump back north on the gefs. Haven’t looked at individuals. Wouldn’t surprise me to see some rainier solutions in there, especially if they are the 2nd SLP formation.

Even the newly beloved 18z Fv3 GFS shifts south

Anyhow.... way out there in GFS fantasy land, check out this jet extension. From the Himalayas to just off the west coast: some other runs showing it too.

Looks identical to the 6z GFS....

Just looking through the noise, we’ve seen a bunch of different ways this can go wrong (dc-NYC), and not too many ways to go positively. I think the biggest thing that changed was the slower timing of the shortwave ejecting our from the SW. that changed a lot of players on the field. Not saying I’m writing this off just yet for Philly metro, but my expectations dropped significantly.

My bad on the mislabel. Working on 4 hours of sleep: there is a Nw camp on the 12Z EPS*

Guess those FAr N&W members get captured by ULL.

EPS for 6z Monday: 0z members top, 12z bottom: eps for 6z Tuesday. Same orientation: