BL74

What’s not to like on the 384 hr ensemble?! Theme of this winter.but seriously, Let’s see how it plays out under day 10. We’ve gotten our hopes up before with these fantasy land looks.

Fully Prepared to have our hopes and dreams crushed by it

According the fv3 gfs, I should have had about 4’ on the round already this winter. That model sucks.

Big changes

Less blocking this run.

Good changes in the NAO domain inside of 10 days here on this run. Not sure we can trust it yet, but it’s a good thing.

To play devils advocate here: The SSW causes the MJO to amplify in phase 5/6 greatly, due to a warmer polar strat and colder tropical strat (which induced an amplified MJO wave). One could say that if it hadn’t if happened; the MJO wouldn’t have amplified like that. Chicken or the egg ?...

Garbage ? That model has been downright awful. Not sure why anyone would want to look at it.

Let’s get it to dig a little more these next few days and we’re all in business.

That 850 flow is gorgeous

1040 HP with an awesome source region to tap into.

Gonna a long 6-10 days in here isn’t it?

Exactly. Gfs has been biased high in amplitude of the MJO this season, especially the last time it motored through 7-8.

Ehh.. getting away from the -EPO look. Not sure if it’s feedback from the crazy MJO loop or what. A little less impressive with the -NAO look as well. Just breaking down this run, not jumping off the train.