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BL74

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  1. BL74

    ***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

    Check out the precip over the dateline (180°). Always a positive.
  2. I believe the dropsonde only* found 931mb, so estimates are a little off.
  3. Just to note, and could be noise. Cloud tops are a bit warmer than earlier overall in the CDO.
  4. You also have to consider beam height. I imagine thats a good 5K feet up.
  5. Diurnal max. Look it up. (Temp gradient) i think she’s struggling a bit, and has been all day. Not downplaying outcomes here; but just speaking on her structure and intensity.
  6. Time stamp I’m guessing is either 2240z or 21z ? Seems a little old I guess? Would like to see an updated microwave pass
  7. Until we see this tidy up. I’d expect max winds to stay closer to those earlier readings from recon.
  8. Ehh.. still some restriction on that western flank. (Was SW flank earlier). And the eye still looks a bit ragged (better than earlier). I’d be surprised if this went cat 5 at this point, even with a favorable environment ahead. Just my 2 cents. Even aside from the ERC’s today, she struggled. Something else at play here that’s capping her.
  9. Gfs: I’ll come back to reality euro: HOLD MY BEER... not sure if that’s a better scenario with highest wind maximas staying offshore while still getting a pounding from the wind field of exponentially awful!
  10. Anyone have the minute by minute floater link for Florence?
  11. Just remember; the gfs is decoupled from the ocean. Take those pressures with a grain of salt.
  12. Little more influence from the confluence up north on 18z gfs thru 60
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